Last week in part 1 of my article on why odds availability is so important when judging a tipster, I discussed the help that odds tracking can bring when figuring out how much real world profit you can actually make.
Today, I want to take this a step further and showcase some of the easy comparison tables that put these odds tracking studies into the context of £££’s!
We do this at SBC via 2 different Profit Adjustment Tables – one for racing and one for other sports based tipsters, which compare just how the claimed profits by each tipster stand up after a minimum of 15 minutes have elapsed from the time a tip was advised.
Allow me to show an example of how each Profit Adjustment Table works from a positive perspective for 3 different sports tipsters.
Before we get into the examples, it’s important to be clear that we use something called Annualised Profit for comparison purposes. This is simply the average yearly profit you would make if using a £2000 betting bank to follow each tipster. You don’t need a £2000 figure to get started betting, it is simply a good measure to compare and contrast with. Don’t get hung up on the need for £2000!
To explain this table, in the original SBC review of Service 1, we found there to be an actual increase of 2% ROI when compared to the quoted odds settled by the tipster. In a nutshell – you could easily beat their claimed profits if betting within the first 15 minutes after they are advised.
Based on this 2% ROI jump – an projected Annualised Profit of £2,956 for Service 1 could well increase by as much as £771 to £3,726, simply by taking better odds.
It’s a similar story for Service 2, whereby the increase was found to be 2.5% – which would turn the Annualised Profit from £1958 to £2576. An increase of £618.
Service 3 is very interesting as whilst there was a 0.5% reduction in odds within 15 minutes, the difference is just £809 less. Taking the Annualised Profit from £12,766 to £11,957.
When Odds Are Odd
Where these Profit Adjustment Tables are equally vital is when they illustrate the changes on the negative side – i.e. tipsters who quote odds that get smashed in very quickly. Those tipsters who claim a profit you are unlikely to match in the real world.
I have copied 3 examples from the Horse Racing Profit Adjustment Tables below that show this in play below:
Starting off with Service 4, we noticed a swing of -4.5% ROI within 15 minutes of the bets being advised. That is reflected in the drop of £1020 if waiting 15 minutes to get your bets on, which takes the profit from £4216 to £3196. It isn’t the biggest move but still its enough to be of concern.
Service 5 raises this up a notch and the 10.82% change within 15 minutes is huge and represents a £2472 swing against you. This would take a profitable service on paper (£982) to a losing one (-£1490) in reality.
Finally, the biggest extreme we have found is Service 6, which continues to quote completely unrealistic odds. That takes a supposed profit of £2,688 down to a loss of £307 due to the 24.5% ROI swing!
The reason for this big swing is that this Service 6 is a racing tipster who continues to take very early, big prices in the racing market which get quickly hammered in. It is for that reason we do not currently recommend Service 6 to SBC members and won’t do so until they start quoting fairer odds.
Red-Flags That A Tipster Is Quoting Unrealistic Odds
In the 6 examples above you can see the two sides to the need for odds tracking – highlighting those tipsters quoting both fair and unfair prices.
Far too often I see too many tipster reviews and recommendations, which do not tackle this issue and simply look at the claimed profit level or ROI without giving it a second thought. It is a genuine problem and it upsets me no end as they are not being straight with you on the real world profit figures.
Whilst I can’t advise you on every tipster out there and how their prices stack up, you can read the odds tracking results for the majority of the 60 tipsters included in each Tipster Profit Report and in every SBC review now published.
Yet for those of you concerned about this area – here are a few ‘red-flags’ that a tipster might be quoting unfair odds:
- They are regularly backing already well supported bets. Effectively they are highlighting ‘steamers’ or those shorter in price on the exchanges than with bookmakers and hoping to jump on the back of a move in price.
- Racing tipsters who put up bets the night or evening before the race itself takes place. There is very little trading money around at this time and you often see huge moves downwards for even the slightest amount of support for a horse.
- Tipsters in very niche markets where it takes not a lot of money to move the odds down. Bookies get spooked if you win large sums in sports or markets where they can’t lay off their liabilities.
This is by no means is that an exhaustive list and ultimately the only real way to get a handle on this is to track the odds and work the data. All of which we do in each review.
Want To See More?
Over the past 14 years, the SBC team have reviewed hundreds and hundreds of tipster services – with the very best and most profitable tipsters listed in the Hall of Fame and featured in our Betting Magazines.
We also report back on their ongoing form of each service in our Tipster Profit Reports.
Most importantly – our Hall of Fame listing section is based on those tipsters we feel make a clear edge in the real world. I.e. Not those quoting imaginary prices.
You will hear me say that phrase regularly ‘Real World Profits’ as we won’t recommend a tipster to you that we don’t feel can make a realistic return for you.
So, if you want to know and see more, including the fair tipsters with proven long-term records of making a profit, you will want to join us at the Smart Betting Club.
Sign-up today and get started on your profitable betting journey.
