It’s entering that time of the season for separating the men from the boys and we are starting to see some of the usual suspects show their true colours. Man Utd always seem to peak around this time and never know when they are beat when it matters (remember Macheda vs. Villa), in total contrast to the likes of Arsenal who always wilt at the slightest inkling of pressure.

That’s just one reason why I am backing a Rooney-less Man Utd this weekend to overcome a -1 Asian Handicap at home against Fulham. Utd quite simply are awesome at home in the league and in the last 2 seasons have played 33, won 29, drawn 2 and lost just once at Old Trafford. Fulham in contrast have lost 17 out of their last 33 away games, including to all of the top 4 and 8 out of the top 10 this season. In terms of margin of victory, Utd have won by 2 or more goals in 19 out of those 29 victories and mostly against bottom half sides (such as Fulham). Team wise – United have the usually rock solid Vidic and Ferdinand partnership back and Continue reading →

Finally back with Premier League action after the inescapably dull International friendlies in midweek, where for once I find myself agreeing with Sir Alex that they should be scrapped all together. If I was a bookie I would love these games as they are so hard to call and uncompetitive yet high profile – perfect for helping build that bookmaker pension fund.

Thankfully though, there seems to be a whole host of good value bets on offer this weekend, starting down at Upton Park where I think the 1.92 about 3 or more goals looks to worth an interest. West Ham’s home games for the past 2 seasons have gone overs roughly 62% of the time, whilst United away have seen overs in 73% this season (47% last). I am far from convinced about the Hammers defence and I fear they will struggle to cope with the attacking thrust down the flanks with Antonio Valencia back fit to join Nani out wide. Odds of 1.92 suggest the chance of overs is 52%, whereas I make it closer to 60%.

Wigan have a reputation for 2 things – eating pies and low scoring games but yet they are 11^th in the table for goals scored and conceded this season and in their home games against the top 4 have let in 14 and scored only 2 (no idea where they stand in the pie consumption league table!). They face Spurs who themselves have seen over 2.5 goals in 60% of games away this year and I make the chances of over 2.5 goals around 55%, whereas the bookies have priced this up at 2.10 – a percentage chance of just 47.6%.

There is evidence to suggest that Stuart Holden was the most effective midfielder in the Premier League this season and Bolton are certainly going to miss him after his horror injury against Man Utd last time out. I have fancied the trotters all season long in a number of bets but I think they will have their work cut out without Holden away at Birmingham who I am backing with an 0 Asian Handicap at 1.83. Bolton have actually only won 2 away games all season, whereas Birmingham have lost only 4 in total at home. I make the home win % chance considerably higher than the away win % chance, so with a draw returning our money and decent odds, some value here.

The bookies have cottoned on to the fact that Blackpool’s games will always feature lots of goals under Holloway and as such there is next to no value in the over markets these days. Games involving the Tangerines have seen 105 goals this season, compared to just the 66 involving Fulham, who they travel to face this weekend. We should see a very contrasting game here with Fulham’s rigid 4-4-2 up against Blackpools 4-3-3 deriative and I fancy the away team with a +1 Asian Handicap at 2.04. Fulham have won just 3 out of 11 games at home by more than 1 goal, whereas Blackpool despite their gung-ho approach have lost just 3 out of 13 by more than 1 goal against non top 5 sides.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Man Utd 1.92 Ladbrokes
1 pt Birmingham +0 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Wigan V Spurs. 2.10 Paddy Power/Stan James
1 pt Blackpool +1 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 2.04 Canbet/SBObet/12bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Wolves.  1.96 Pinnacle/12bet

*All odds correct at time of release on blog yesterday.

Finally back with Premier League action after the inescapably dull International friendlies in midweek, where for once I find myself agreeing with Sir Alex that they should be scrapped all together. If I was a bookie I would love these games as they are so hard to call and uncompetitive yet high profile – perfect for helping build that bookmaker pension fund.

Thankfully though, there seems to be a whole host of good value bets on offer this weekend, starting down at Upton Park where I think the 1.92 about 3 or more goals looks to worth an interest. West Ham’s home games for the past 2 seasons have gone overs roughly 62% of the time, whilst United away have seen overs in 73% this season (47% last). I am far from convinced about the Hammers defence and I fear they will struggle to cope with the attacking thrust down the flanks with Antonio Valencia back fit to join Nani out wide. Odds of 1.92 suggest the chance of overs is 52%, whereas I make it closer to 60%.

Wigan have a reputation for 2 things – eating pies and low scoring games but yet they are 11^th in the table for goals scored and conceded this season and in their home games against the top 4 have let in 14 and scored only 2 (no idea where they stand in the pie consumption league table!). They face Spurs who themselves have seen over 2.5 goals in 60% of games away this year and I make the chances of over 2.5 goals around 55%, whereas the bookies have priced this up at 2.10 – a percentage chance of just 47.6%.

There is evidence to suggest that Stuart Holden was the most effective midfielder in the Premier League this season and Bolton are certainly going to miss him after his horror injury against Man Utd last time out. I have fancied the trotters all season long in a number of bets but I think they will have their work cut out without Holden away at Birmingham who I am backing with an 0 Asian Handicap at 1.83. Bolton have actually only won 2 away games all season, whereas Birmingham have lost only 4 in total at home. I make the home win % chance considerably higher than the away win % chance, so with a draw returning our money and decent odds, some value here.

The bookies have cottoned on to the fact that Blackpool’s games will always feature lots of goals under Holloway and as such there is next to no value in the over markets these days. Games involving the Tangerines have seen 105 goals this season, compared to just the 66 involving Fulham, who they travel to face this weekend. We should see a very contrasting game here with Fulham’s rigid 4-4-2 up against Blackpools 4-3-3 deriative and I fancy the away team with a +1 Asian Handicap at 2.04. Fulham have won just 3 out of 11 games at home by more than 1 goal, whereas Blackpool despite their gung-ho approach have lost just 3 out of 13 by more than 1 goal against non top 5 sides.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Man Utd 1.92 Ladbrokes
1 pt Birmingham +0 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Wigan V Spurs. 2.10 Paddy Power/Stan James
1 pt Blackpool +1 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 2.04 Canbet/SBObet/12bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Wolves.  1.96 Pinnacle/12bet

*All odds correct at time of release on blog yesterday.

Putting up my bets for this weekend early as some such as in the Man Utd – West Ham game have seen the odds drop. A full write-up will follow…

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Man Utd 1.92 Ladbrokes
1 pt Birmingham +0 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Wigan V Spurs. 2.10 Paddy Power/Stan James
1 pt Blackpool +1 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 2.04 Canbet/SBObet/12bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Wolves.  1.96 Pinnacle/12bet

Very close to a good weekend for the Main bets last Saturday and Sunday with the late Dimitar Berbatov goal, adjusting our profit in that game from a full 0.95 pts to just 0.475. We just needed one further goal in the Sunderland – Liverpool game to pick up a further 1.42 pts profit, which would have made a major difference to our ROI. Such fine margins at play, although of course, the belief is that evens out over the season. As it was just a 0.45 pt profit for the Main bets from 3 pts staked.

Ante-post wise though it was a good weekend with Stoke climbing back into the top ten for our bet on them at 7/2 and Blackpool conceding 2 more goals to ensure they still have the leakiest defence in the top flight (we are on at 11/8). It’s anyone’s guess who is going down now though although I am confident that at least 2 out of our 3 bets on Wolves, Wigan and West Brom to go down will pay out.

There are no bets this weekend as its International Football and so I am preparing for what should be a manic April, with plenty of games lined up in the English top flight!

I believe that one of the secrets to profitable football betting is knowing when a certain team is suffering from a major over-reaction, normally leapt upon by much of the media and tv/radio pundits as something to discuss. This is either too much praise or too harsh criticism and with this in mind there are a number of such teams I am betting on this weekend who fall into this category.

First up is Liverpool who were deserved winners against Man United last time out and are flourishing from the freshness that Kenny Dalglish has brought and the impact of Luis Suarez has had upfront. They are far from the finished article though, despite some already tipping them for the title next season, nor were they as bad as some ‘experts’ claimed a few months ago. Despite the recent improvement, they are still not convincing defensively especially away from home and with them likely to set up with a 4-4-2 at Sunderland this weekend, I think the 2.42 on Over 2.5 goals in this game is way too big. Admittedly the Black Cats are not exactly banging in the goals themselves but Danny Welback is now back to support Asamoah Gyan and the potency in both attacks is being under-rated here. Odds of 2.42 indicate a 41.3% chance and I make it more 45% and higher.

Another team widely debated of late is Man Utd and its clear to all how much they miss the power and pace of Vidic and Ferdinand who are both likely to be out at home to Bolton. They will also be missing Scholes, O’Shea & Rafael with Fletcher doubtful meaning they will lack at least 4 starting players and they don’t have the replacements of quality to step up. It takes a brave man to back against United at home where they have dropped just 2 pts all season but the +1.25 Asian Handicap for Bolton at 1.95 looks value. Bolton have lost to 5 out of the top 6 away but 4 of those games were by 1 goal margins so they have not been embarrassed by any means.

My final main bet sees another team with a strong home record – Stoke who always target these type of games for three points with the long throws and the barracking of a vociferous crowd. Newcastle have struggled without the influence of Joey Barton in the centre and though they can be frustrating inconsistent I think they may struggle here.

Shortlist wise, I also want to go against the media flow and back Arsenal at 1.83 to beat West Brom. Its second vs. 4^th bottom and the Gunners have won 5 out of 6 games away at similar placed teams in the league. Fabregas may well be back and they actually played well initially against United before being sprung on the counter. With a normal build-up to this game, Arsenal would never be as big as 1.83.

Everton are without 3 key players in Cahill, Fellaini and Arteta so creating chances is going to be especially hard for a team that has struggled to score all season. The visit of Fulham is also a real test as the Cottagers have only lost 5 out of 14 away this season, all of which were in games to top 6 sides except for one blip at West Brom. Fulham with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.85 looks value to me with this in mind. The home team have been very inconsistent of late though so only a shortlist selection.

Finally both Spurs and West Ham have been far from prolific at home and away respectively with both of them having under 2.5 goals records in about 61% of games this season. The odds of 2.21 on under 2.5 goals therefore offers a touch of shortlist value.

Main Bets
1 pt Bolton (+1.25 AH) V Man Utd. 1.95 Betinternet/12Bet
1 pt Stoke (-0.25 AH) V Newcastle. 1.97 188bet
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Sunderland V Liverpool. 2.42 12Bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt under 2.5 goals. Spurs V West Ham.  2.21 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Arsenal to beat West Brom. 1.83 12Bet
1 pt Fulham +0.5 Asian Handicap V Everton. 1.85 Canbet/SBObet

My football betting this weekend starts over at the Reebok where Bolton host Villa in a game where I feel the over 2.5 goals line is offering value. Bolton’s home games have seen an average of 3 goals scored, whilst Villa’s similar away record is 3.14 goals so the odds of 2.03 on offer for over 2.5 goals is worth a pop. Villa are also going to be missing Cuellar and James Collins, 2 very important defenders although with the likes of Bent, Young and Albrighton will retain a real cutting edge up front.

I’m going for the same goals outlook when Wolves host Spurs on Sunday as both these teams have seen the overs mark hit in respective home and away games 64% and 57% of times. With 2.10 on over 2.5 goals, the bookies think this a 47.6% chance, where I make it around 55% so big value by my calculations. Spurs also have most of their creative hub back with Modric & Van Der Vaart fit and I can’t see Wolves defence keeping a clean sheet.

My last main bet features Man City against a Wigan team who ship goals against the very best teams as in their 7 games against the top 5 this season they have scored 2, yet conceded 19! It was a similar pattern last year and they will really struggle with the pace and movement of Tevez, Dzeko, Ballotelli and Silva if fit. You can get 1.90 on Man City to overcome a -1.25 Asian Handicap and I don’t think Wigan’s defence will be able to prevent a comfortable home win here.

A few shortlist bets to speak of, firstly over at Anfield as Liverpool host Man Utd. United have won only 4 times away this season, whereas Liverpool have lost just twice at home before Dalglish took over. The loss of Vidic and Ferdinand cannot be understated either as these two are a quiet superb central defensive pairing and I am taking Liverpool to overcome a 0 Asian Handicap. Close to being a main bet.

I was undone for a profit last weekend thanks to Carlos Vela’s offside equaliser against Stoke on Monday night although undeterred I am taking on West Brom once again as on Saturday they have a tough fixture away at Birmingham. As Arsenal found out to their cost, Alex McLeish’s men are not to be under-estimated and the -0.25 AH at 2.08 offers a shade of shortlist value.

Finally I want to take on Blackburn’s defence on the road with an over 2.5 goal line involving their trip to Fulham. 79% of all their away games have gone overs and they will miss captain Ryan Nelson this weekend. It’s a shortlist bet as Fulham are not the most adventurous team so does depend on how Mark Hughes approaches the game.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Bolton V Aston Villa.  2.03 188bet
1 pt Man City -1.25 Asian Handicap V Wigan. 1.90 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Wolves V Spurs. 2.10 Pinnacle/Paddy

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Blackburn. 2.16 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Liverpool 0 Asian Handicap V Man Utd. 2.09 Pinnacle
1 pt Birmingham -0.25 Asian Handicap V West Brom.  2.08 Bet365/12Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike