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Mike’s Football Bets 15th February

Posted on by Mike

As I suggested, it was a tough weekend of betting in the Premier League just gone with a 2 pt loss for the Main bets as Blackpool – Villa ended up 1-1 and Sunderland let a lead slip against Spurs. The seasonal tally has now dropped to 5.91 pts and a 7.13% ROI so work to be done on that front, although of course profitable betting is a marathon not a sprint so everything in its right context.

A neat reminder if one were needed however that my bets are for the best part, an experiment this season. Consider it an exercise in exploring profitability in these markets – certainly don’t judge the quality of my tips against the quality of the tipsters we focus on here at SBC. They are completely separate.

One bet that I kicked myself for not having as a Main bet last weekend was on Birmingham at 1.78 to overcome a 0 ball Asian Handicap against Stoke (I only shortlisted it). They duly won 1-0 although my reasoning for not taking was down to a lack of value in the odds – something that is less the case in Birmingham’s next fixture tonight at home to Newcastle.

You can get 1.86 on Alex Mcleish’s men in the same market against the Geordies, who are for my mind, a slightly inferior team to Stoke. Newcastle are however a slight worry in that they are very much Jekyll and Hyde as we can never be certain which team will turn up. I am going to take the 1.86 on Birmingham however as they have a strong home record and are in a good vein of form.

Main Bets
1 pt Birmingham 0 Asian Handicap V Newcastle. 1.86 Canbet/SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

*Odds given were correct as time of bet release at the SBC Blog

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

Posted on by Dan

Here are the latest value bets according to the latest Fink Tank Ratings. You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory. Click on the image below for the weekend’s qualifiers

Table showing the fink tank games and the value based on bookmaker odds.

For the season so far, the Fink Tank ratings have proven to be effective, making a profit of 37 points from 1 point level staking for an ROI of 18% (Profit on turnover). Most of the gains have come from big value away winners.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

Posted on by Dan

Here are the latest value bets according to the latest Fink Tank Ratings. You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory. Click on the image below for the weekend’s qualifiers

Table showing the fink tank games and the value based on bookmaker odds.

For the season so far, the Fink Tank ratings have proven to be effective, making a profit of 37 points from 1 point level staking for an ROI of 18% (Profit on turnover). Most of the gains have come from big value away winners.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.

Mike's Football Bets 11th February

Posted on by Mike

Not the easiest looking betting fixtures this weekend in the top flight and just the 2 Main bets from me, starting off with the game at the Stadium of Light between Sunderland and Spurs.

Spurs have struggled lately with injuries to the creative hub of their team with the likes of Modric, Bale and now Van der Vaart all out. To make matters worse they face a very tricky fixture against Steve Bruce’s team who are very strong in general at home. The hosts to my mind continue to be under-rated and have won 6 out of 13 home fixtures, losing just twice to Chelsea and Blackpool. You can get 2.04 on them with a 0 ball Asian Handicap, which covers the draw and looks to be great value against a depleted Spurs outfit.

No matter what Ian Holloway does, his team cant stop leaking goals and to me it’s a simple case of not having the quality defensive personnel required to shut up shop. Attack for them is the best form of defence and the bookies continue to be very slow to cotton on to the chance of goals in their home games. All 11 tangerine games have gone 3 goals or more with 5 (45%) going 4 goals or more. They face Villa who have also seen 67% of their away games go over 3 goals so they aren’t exactly going to park the bus either.  I will take the 1.79 on over 2.75 goals in this market.

Aside from those 2 main bets, its hard work finding value this weekend and the 3 shortlist bets highlight this. Birmingham are very solid at home but the 1.78 0 AH is a bit short in price to be a main bet against a Stoke team who are improving but continue to struggle on the road in general.

Man City will be happy to draw away at Utd as it keeps them in the hunt for the top 4 spot (their ultimate goal this year – not the title) and so the 1.83 on less than 3 goals appeals as a shortlist bet. Fulham continue also to be under-rated goals wise at home and even though Chelsea were toothless last weekend, prior to that they had found their shooting boots. Hopeful of seeing some goalmouth action at Craven Cottage this weekend so over 2.5 goals is the call with stats backing this up as one to be on.

Main Bets
1 pt Sunderland 0 Asian Handicap V Spurs. 2.04 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.75 goals. Blackpool V Aston Villa. 1.79 5Dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Birmingham 0 Asian Handicap V Stoke. 1.78 Pinnacle/188bet
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Man Utd V Man City. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Chelsea. 2.08 188bet/Canbet/SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike’s Football Bets 11th February

Posted on by Mike

Not the easiest looking betting fixtures this weekend in the top flight and just the 2 Main bets from me, starting off with the game at the Stadium of Light between Sunderland and Spurs.

Spurs have struggled lately with injuries to the creative hub of their team with the likes of Modric, Bale and now Van der Vaart all out. To make matters worse they face a very tricky fixture against Steve Bruce’s team who are very strong in general at home. The hosts to my mind continue to be under-rated and have won 6 out of 13 home fixtures, losing just twice to Chelsea and Blackpool. You can get 2.04 on them with a 0 ball Asian Handicap, which covers the draw and looks to be great value against a depleted Spurs outfit.

No matter what Ian Holloway does, his team cant stop leaking goals and to me it’s a simple case of not having the quality defensive personnel required to shut up shop. Attack for them is the best form of defence and the bookies continue to be very slow to cotton on to the chance of goals in their home games. All 11 tangerine games have gone 3 goals or more with 5 (45%) going 4 goals or more. They face Villa who have also seen 67% of their away games go over 3 goals so they aren’t exactly going to park the bus either.  I will take the 1.79 on over 2.75 goals in this market.

Aside from those 2 main bets, its hard work finding value this weekend and the 3 shortlist bets highlight this. Birmingham are very solid at home but the 1.78 0 AH is a bit short in price to be a main bet against a Stoke team who are improving but continue to struggle on the road in general.

Man City will be happy to draw away at Utd as it keeps them in the hunt for the top 4 spot (their ultimate goal this year – not the title) and so the 1.83 on less than 3 goals appeals as a shortlist bet. Fulham continue also to be under-rated goals wise at home and even though Chelsea were toothless last weekend, prior to that they had found their shooting boots. Hopeful of seeing some goalmouth action at Craven Cottage this weekend so over 2.5 goals is the call with stats backing this up as one to be on.

Main Bets
1 pt Sunderland 0 Asian Handicap V Spurs. 2.04 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.75 goals. Blackpool V Aston Villa. 1.79 5Dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Birmingham 0 Asian Handicap V Stoke. 1.78 Pinnacle/188bet
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Man Utd V Man City. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Chelsea. 2.08 188bet/Canbet/SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike's Football Bets 3rd February

Posted on by Mike

I want to get my bets in early this weekend as I am concerned that my best value bets often seem to diminish in price over time, which is a pattern I have spotted of late.

Value wise, the overs market in the game between the Hammers and the Brummies looks to be fantastic.  Consider that in the past 2 seasons, West Hams home games have gone overs 60% and Birmingham’s away games 63%, you would think the odds would reflect that. Not so as you can get 2.12 from Pinnacle which equates the chance of 3 or more goals as 47.16%, when the stats say differently. Logically as well West Ham have a leaky defence and Birmingham nowhere near as solid as last year either.

Man City are also under-rated against West Brom, who are another side struggling at the back and I can’t see them coping with the movement from Silva, Tevez and Dzeko. I expect an easy home win here and the 1.79 from 12Bet on City to overcome the -1 Asian Handicap jumps out.

As Harry Redknapp love to say, Spurs are down to the ‘bare bones’ and it’s no surprise to see them struggle creatively midweek with the likes of Bale, Modric and Pienaar all out. This season both Spurs at home and Bolton away have gone under 2.5 goals in 67% of games and with Bolton’s strikers also far from prolific recently, I think the odds of 2.05 on less than 3 goals is too big.

One team that doesn’t struggle to score is Arsenal and they have gone overs 58% of the time away from home, whereas Newcastle have a 67% record at St James Park. This makes sense as with 50,000 Geordies willing you on, they have to attack teams and I expect Arsenal to find plenty of space to exploit. The 1.90 on over 2.5 goals is my final main bet.

Elsewhere, 2 shortlist bets and I am taking Villa to continue their recent improvement against a Fulham side that will go for the draw so the -0.25 handicap offers some appeal here. Chelsea should also have far too much against a better looking Liverpool team, who will be really tested at the back against Torres, Drogba, Anelka et al. On there day these 3 will eat the likes of Kygriakos for breakfast and I fancy a home win here. Not great value in the odds so just a shortlist bet.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Birmingham. 2.12 Pinnacle
1 pt Man City -1 Asian Handicap V West Brom. 1.79 12Bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Arsenal. 1.90 Pinnacle
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Spurs V Bolton. 2.05 12Bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Aston Villa -0.25 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 1.77 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap V Liverpool. 1.78 10Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

 

 

 

Mike’s Football Bets 3rd February

Posted on by Mike

I want to get my bets in early this weekend as I am concerned that my best value bets often seem to diminish in price over time, which is a pattern I have spotted of late.

Value wise, the overs market in the game between the Hammers and the Brummies looks to be fantastic.  Consider that in the past 2 seasons, West Hams home games have gone overs 60% and Birmingham’s away games 63%, you would think the odds would reflect that. Not so as you can get 2.12 from Pinnacle which equates the chance of 3 or more goals as 47.16%, when the stats say differently. Logically as well West Ham have a leaky defence and Birmingham nowhere near as solid as last year either.

Man City are also under-rated against West Brom, who are another side struggling at the back and I can’t see them coping with the movement from Silva, Tevez and Dzeko. I expect an easy home win here and the 1.79 from 12Bet on City to overcome the -1 Asian Handicap jumps out.

As Harry Redknapp love to say, Spurs are down to the ‘bare bones’ and it’s no surprise to see them struggle creatively midweek with the likes of Bale, Modric and Pienaar all out. This season both Spurs at home and Bolton away have gone under 2.5 goals in 67% of games and with Bolton’s strikers also far from prolific recently, I think the odds of 2.05 on less than 3 goals is too big.

One team that doesn’t struggle to score is Arsenal and they have gone overs 58% of the time away from home, whereas Newcastle have a 67% record at St James Park. This makes sense as with 50,000 Geordies willing you on, they have to attack teams and I expect Arsenal to find plenty of space to exploit. The 1.90 on over 2.5 goals is my final main bet.

Elsewhere, 2 shortlist bets and I am taking Villa to continue their recent improvement against a Fulham side that will go for the draw so the -0.25 handicap offers some appeal here. Chelsea should also have far too much against a better looking Liverpool team, who will be really tested at the back against Torres, Drogba, Anelka et al. On there day these 3 will eat the likes of Kygriakos for breakfast and I fancy a home win here. Not great value in the odds so just a shortlist bet.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Birmingham. 2.12 Pinnacle
1 pt Man City -1 Asian Handicap V West Brom. 1.79 12Bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Arsenal. 1.90 Pinnacle
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Spurs V Bolton. 2.05 12Bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Aston Villa -0.25 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 1.77 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap V Liverpool. 1.78 10Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike