I believe that one of the secrets to profitable football betting is knowing when a certain team is suffering from a major over-reaction, normally leapt upon by much of the media and tv/radio pundits as something to discuss. This is either too much praise or too harsh criticism and with this in mind there are a number of such teams I am betting on this weekend who fall into this category.

First up is Liverpool who were deserved winners against Man United last time out and are flourishing from the freshness that Kenny Dalglish has brought and the impact of Luis Suarez has had upfront. They are far from the finished article though, despite some already tipping them for the title next season, nor were they as bad as some ‘experts’ claimed a few months ago. Despite the recent improvement, they are still not convincing defensively especially away from home and with them likely to set up with a 4-4-2 at Sunderland this weekend, I think the 2.42 on Over 2.5 goals in this game is way too big. Admittedly the Black Cats are not exactly banging in the goals themselves but Danny Welback is now back to support Asamoah Gyan and the potency in both attacks is being under-rated here. Odds of 2.42 indicate a 41.3% chance and I make it more 45% and higher.

Another team widely debated of late is Man Utd and its clear to all how much they miss the power and pace of Vidic and Ferdinand who are both likely to be out at home to Bolton. They will also be missing Scholes, O’Shea & Rafael with Fletcher doubtful meaning they will lack at least 4 starting players and they don’t have the replacements of quality to step up. It takes a brave man to back against United at home where they have dropped just 2 pts all season but the +1.25 Asian Handicap for Bolton at 1.95 looks value. Bolton have lost to 5 out of the top 6 away but 4 of those games were by 1 goal margins so they have not been embarrassed by any means.

My final main bet sees another team with a strong home record – Stoke who always target these type of games for three points with the long throws and the barracking of a vociferous crowd. Newcastle have struggled without the influence of Joey Barton in the centre and though they can be frustrating inconsistent I think they may struggle here.

Shortlist wise, I also want to go against the media flow and back Arsenal at 1.83 to beat West Brom. Its second vs. 4^th bottom and the Gunners have won 5 out of 6 games away at similar placed teams in the league. Fabregas may well be back and they actually played well initially against United before being sprung on the counter. With a normal build-up to this game, Arsenal would never be as big as 1.83.

Everton are without 3 key players in Cahill, Fellaini and Arteta so creating chances is going to be especially hard for a team that has struggled to score all season. The visit of Fulham is also a real test as the Cottagers have only lost 5 out of 14 away this season, all of which were in games to top 6 sides except for one blip at West Brom. Fulham with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.85 looks value to me with this in mind. The home team have been very inconsistent of late though so only a shortlist selection.

Finally both Spurs and West Ham have been far from prolific at home and away respectively with both of them having under 2.5 goals records in about 61% of games this season. The odds of 2.21 on under 2.5 goals therefore offers a touch of shortlist value.

Main Bets
1 pt Bolton (+1.25 AH) V Man Utd. 1.95 Betinternet/12Bet
1 pt Stoke (-0.25 AH) V Newcastle. 1.97 188bet
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Sunderland V Liverpool. 2.42 12Bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt under 2.5 goals. Spurs V West Ham.  2.21 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Arsenal to beat West Brom. 1.83 12Bet
1 pt Fulham +0.5 Asian Handicap V Everton. 1.85 Canbet/SBObet

My football betting this weekend starts over at the Reebok where Bolton host Villa in a game where I feel the over 2.5 goals line is offering value. Bolton’s home games have seen an average of 3 goals scored, whilst Villa’s similar away record is 3.14 goals so the odds of 2.03 on offer for over 2.5 goals is worth a pop. Villa are also going to be missing Cuellar and James Collins, 2 very important defenders although with the likes of Bent, Young and Albrighton will retain a real cutting edge up front.

I’m going for the same goals outlook when Wolves host Spurs on Sunday as both these teams have seen the overs mark hit in respective home and away games 64% and 57% of times. With 2.10 on over 2.5 goals, the bookies think this a 47.6% chance, where I make it around 55% so big value by my calculations. Spurs also have most of their creative hub back with Modric & Van Der Vaart fit and I can’t see Wolves defence keeping a clean sheet.

My last main bet features Man City against a Wigan team who ship goals against the very best teams as in their 7 games against the top 5 this season they have scored 2, yet conceded 19! It was a similar pattern last year and they will really struggle with the pace and movement of Tevez, Dzeko, Ballotelli and Silva if fit. You can get 1.90 on Man City to overcome a -1.25 Asian Handicap and I don’t think Wigan’s defence will be able to prevent a comfortable home win here.

A few shortlist bets to speak of, firstly over at Anfield as Liverpool host Man Utd. United have won only 4 times away this season, whereas Liverpool have lost just twice at home before Dalglish took over. The loss of Vidic and Ferdinand cannot be understated either as these two are a quiet superb central defensive pairing and I am taking Liverpool to overcome a 0 Asian Handicap. Close to being a main bet.

I was undone for a profit last weekend thanks to Carlos Vela’s offside equaliser against Stoke on Monday night although undeterred I am taking on West Brom once again as on Saturday they have a tough fixture away at Birmingham. As Arsenal found out to their cost, Alex McLeish’s men are not to be under-estimated and the -0.25 AH at 2.08 offers a shade of shortlist value.

Finally I want to take on Blackburn’s defence on the road with an over 2.5 goal line involving their trip to Fulham. 79% of all their away games have gone overs and they will miss captain Ryan Nelson this weekend. It’s a shortlist bet as Fulham are not the most adventurous team so does depend on how Mark Hughes approaches the game.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Bolton V Aston Villa.  2.03 188bet
1 pt Man City -1.25 Asian Handicap V Wigan. 1.90 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Wolves V Spurs. 2.10 Pinnacle/Paddy

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Blackburn. 2.16 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Liverpool 0 Asian Handicap V Man Utd. 2.09 Pinnacle
1 pt Birmingham -0.25 Asian Handicap V West Brom.  2.08 Bet365/12Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Back this week with an almost full Premier League card with 8 games over the course of the weekend to work with and I have 4 Main bets that have caught my eye.

Starting up at the Britannia Stadium, I am keen on Stoke to have too much for West Brom, especially considering the 2.00 price that Hills are offering. The Potters this season have been very strong at home, winning 54% of games and they certainly will target this type of match for all 3 points. West Brom on the other hand have been very dodgy at the back in recent months and will struggle against Stoke’s aerial bombardment. They have lost 69% of away games this year and despite the arrival of Roy Hodgson, it will take some time for him to get them better organized on the road. Odds of 2.00 suggest Stoke have a 50% chance of victory, and I make it more like 55% so a bit of value here.

Talking of Roy Hodgson, his former charges Fulham continue to prosper from the work he did on making them extremely hard to beat away from home. This is backed up by the stats as they have gone under 2.5 goals in 69% of games on the road this year with a clear policy of going for the 0-0 draw in matches against the top teams. Ladbrokes are kind enough to offer 1.97 on the under 2.5 goals market, which is a 50.7% chance, whereas I again make this more of a 1.85 to 1.90 shot so value here. As an added incentive, Mark Hughes will be even more keen for Fulham to give nothing away as he returns to Man City for the first time since being fired.

The transformation of Liverpool under Kenny Dalglish has been very impressive and bookies have been quick to note how tight matches involving his charges now are, as judged by the measly 1.75 on under 2.5 goals in their game away at West Ham. My interest involves backing Liverpool to overcome a -0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.93 as the Hammers under Avram Grant remain very poor and they have lost at home against all the top teams this season.  This bet gives us some cover in case of a draw and I can see a well organized Liverpool with Steven Gerrard likely to be back causing lots of problems.

One final bet on goals in the game featuring Villa and Blackburn as the away team have been very leaky on the road, going over 2.5 goals in 77% of games. Villa have improved offensively as well with Darren Bent leading the line and look a lot more threatening up front these days at home so the 1.96 on over 2.5 goals looks a good investment. I make the true odds on this market again lower than 1.90 so some value here.

Main Bets
1 pt Stoke to beat West Brom. 2.00 William Hill
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Man City V Fulham. 1.97 Ladbrokes
1 pt Liverpool -0.25 Asian Handicap V West Ham. 1.93 Pinnacle/Canbet/SBOBet/188Bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Aston Villa V Blackburn.  1.96 188bet

Shortlist Bets
None

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Its fair to say February hasn’t been kind to me so far, with the midweek Birmingham bet going down for us and we are in a poor run of form. It’s perhaps good that we have only the one game this weekend in the top flight with West Brom hosting Wolves, so we can take a breather.

I never like to bet on teams who have just changed their manager such as West Brom and their opponents on Saturday – Wolves, have proven hard to pin down this season. They are just as likely to beat Man Utd 2-1, than lose 3-0 to Liverpool in the space of just 2 weeks.

No bets therefore and I will return to take a look at the 2 midweek games next week. Good luck if betting in the FA Cup this weekend!

Mike

Its fair to say February hasn’t been kind to me so far, with the midweek Birmingham bet going down for us and we are in a poor run of form. It’s perhaps good that we have only the one game this weekend in the top flight with West Brom hosting Wolves, so we can take a breather.

I never like to bet on teams who have just changed their manager such as West Brom and their opponents on Saturday – Wolves, have proven hard to pin down this season. They are just as likely to beat Man Utd 2-1, than lose 3-0 to Liverpool in the space of just 2 weeks.

No bets therefore and I will return to take a look at the 2 midweek games next week. Good luck if betting in the FA Cup this weekend!

Mike

As I suggested, it was a tough weekend of betting in the Premier League just gone with a 2 pt loss for the Main bets as Blackpool – Villa ended up 1-1 and Sunderland let a lead slip against Spurs. The seasonal tally has now dropped to 5.91 pts and a 7.13% ROI so work to be done on that front, although of course profitable betting is a marathon not a sprint so everything in its right context.

A neat reminder if one were needed however that my bets are for the best part, an experiment this season. Consider it an exercise in exploring profitability in these markets – certainly don’t judge the quality of my tips against the quality of the tipsters we focus on here at SBC. They are completely separate.

One bet that I kicked myself for not having as a Main bet last weekend was on Birmingham at 1.78 to overcome a 0 ball Asian Handicap against Stoke (I only shortlisted it). They duly won 1-0 although my reasoning for not taking was down to a lack of value in the odds – something that is less the case in Birmingham’s next fixture tonight at home to Newcastle.

You can get 1.86 on Alex Mcleish’s men in the same market against the Geordies, who are for my mind, a slightly inferior team to Stoke. Newcastle are however a slight worry in that they are very much Jekyll and Hyde as we can never be certain which team will turn up. I am going to take the 1.86 on Birmingham however as they have a strong home record and are in a good vein of form.

Main Bets
1 pt Birmingham 0 Asian Handicap V Newcastle. 1.86 Canbet/SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

*Odds given were correct as time of bet release at the SBC Blog