Mikes Football Bets 25th February

Back this week with an almost full Premier League card with 8 games over the course of the weekend to work with and I have 4 Main bets that have caught my eye.

Starting up at the Britannia Stadium, I am keen on Stoke to have too much for West Brom, especially considering the 2.00 price that Hills are offering. The Potters this season have been very strong at home, winning 54% of games and they certainly will target this type of match for all 3 points. West Brom on the other hand have been very dodgy at the back in recent months and will struggle against Stoke’s aerial bombardment. They have lost 69% of away games this year and despite the arrival of Roy Hodgson, it will take some time for him to get them better organized on the road. Odds of 2.00 suggest Stoke have a 50% chance of victory, and I make it more like 55% so a bit of value here.

Talking of Roy Hodgson, his former charges Fulham continue to prosper from the work he did on making them extremely hard to beat away from home. This is backed up by the stats as they have gone under 2.5 goals in 69% of games on the road this year with a clear policy of going for the 0-0 draw in matches against the top teams. Ladbrokes are kind enough to offer 1.97 on the under 2.5 goals market, which is a 50.7% chance, whereas I again make this more of a 1.85 to 1.90 shot so value here. As an added incentive, Mark Hughes will be even more keen for Fulham to give nothing away as he returns to Man City for the first time since being fired.

The transformation of Liverpool under Kenny Dalglish has been very impressive and bookies have been quick to note how tight matches involving his charges now are, as judged by the measly 1.75 on under 2.5 goals in their game away at West Ham. My interest involves backing Liverpool to overcome a -0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.93 as the Hammers under Avram Grant remain very poor and they have lost at home against all the top teams this season.  This bet gives us some cover in case of a draw and I can see a well organized Liverpool with Steven Gerrard likely to be back causing lots of problems.

One final bet on goals in the game featuring Villa and Blackburn as the away team have been very leaky on the road, going over 2.5 goals in 77% of games. Villa have improved offensively as well with Darren Bent leading the line and look a lot more threatening up front these days at home so the 1.96 on over 2.5 goals looks a good investment. I make the true odds on this market again lower than 1.90 so some value here.

Main Bets
1 pt Stoke to beat West Brom. 2.00 William Hill
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Man City V Fulham. 1.97 Ladbrokes
1 pt Liverpool -0.25 Asian Handicap V West Ham. 1.93 Pinnacle/Canbet/SBOBet/188Bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Aston Villa V Blackburn.  1.96 188bet

Shortlist Bets
None

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike