You can find some background on this test here.
Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.
Last week:
A pretty good performance last week with some great value on offer to return 5.05 points profit.
This week’s bets:
Things don’t look so easy this week. Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The West Brom Chelsea game is a Chelsea/ West Brom (12) Double Chance, the same as laying the draw.
For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Clubcould help you.
