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Top Five Grand National 2012 Tips Part 4: Jockey & Trainer Trends

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts at the Smart Betting Club delve into the stats to unearth the top five Grand National 2012 tips for finding a winner in the big race.

In Part three of our Top Five Grand National 2012 Tips series, we looked at the importance of the the handicap weight. In this article, we look at jockey & trainer trends.

For more top Grand National 2012 tips including bets from expert tipsters, make sure you check out the FREE SBC Grand National 2012 tips package.  

Grand National 2012 Tip #4: The Best Jockeys For The National. 

With so much attention on the horses, it’s easy to forget about the importance of the poor fellows attempting to steer their ride to victory. Just like Formula 1, you can have a fine engine, but it’s the driver that decides how the race will be run (and hopefully won).

Some jockeys have a better record than others at the Grand National as the following analysis shows. With so many jockeys taking part over the years, we have restricted our analysis to some of the bigger names and more frequent riders.

Jockey performance since 1997

We have to be wary of reading too much into jockey stats because the sample size is so low, but they still make for interesting reading.

The standout performer in recent years is Ruby Walsh with two winners from his ten runs. Backing all his rides blindly would have produced an excellent profit of 12.5 points (125% ROI) to Betfair prices. Tom Scudamore by contrast has a poor record, with no wins from his nine runs.

With a paucity of data to work with, it make sense to not just look at the winners, but also how often a jockey gets a horse into the right area.

Jockey place strike rate since 1997

Incredibly, not only has Ruby Walsh won twice, he’s also won or placed in 60% of his National runs. If you’re looking for an Each Way angle, Ruby’s ride has to be a contender.

The win and place stats also show that AP McCoy has been banging on the door for many years with a 35.71% win/ place strike rate.

Unfortunately Tom Scudamore’s stats don’t get any better, with none of his horses even placing.

Jockey Declarations For the National

The jockeys have now mostly been declared for the National. Here are the horses which match up to the jockeys profiled above.

  • Timmy Murphy: Weird Al
  • AP McCoy: Synchronised (favourite)
  • P Carberry: Not yet declared
  • Barry Geraghty Shakalakaboomboom
  • R Walsh: On His Own
  • Tom Scudamore: Junior

These jockey trends might not be reliable enough on their own, but if they could help you fine tune your shortlist.

Trainer Trends

Similar to the jockey trends, there are some interesting statistics on the trainers, but these also need to be taken with a pinch of salt due to the low sample sizes.

What is striking is how spread out the National winners have been across the population of trainers. The big name trainers don’t seem to have as much of an advantage as you might think as the numbers below indicate:

Grand National trainer records from 1997

Big name trainers like Paul Nicholls have had a poor record at the National with no winners so far. D Pipe has bettered his Father’s post 1997 record by finding a winner, but it’s not been enough to beat the odds.

As with the jockeys, we can probably get more meaningful information by looking at the number of times a trainer has managed to get horses in the right area, not just win.

Jonjo O’Neil has had just 20 runners, but a quarter of these have won or placed. Similarly, three of WP Mullins 19 runners have won or placed. Paul Nicholl’s record doesn’t get much better when we look at the win & place strike rate and it seems to be feast or famine with Nigel Twiston Davis with only one horse placing in additional to his two winners.

Trainer Declarations For the National

Here are the featured trainers entries for the 2012 national at present:

  • Jonjo O’Neil: Synchronised, Arbor Supreme, Sunnyhillyboy.
  • D Pipe: Junior, Swing Bill.
  • Nigel Twiston Davis: Viking Blond, Hello Bud.
  • Paul Nicholls: Neptune Collonges.
  • W P Mullins: On His Own, The Midnight Club & Quiscover Fontaine.

Summary – Grand National 2012 Tip #4: The Best Jockeys 

If you want more tips like this, including bets that expert tipsters are following, make sure you download our FREE Grand National 2012 Tips Pack. This pack will also highlight all the horses currently meeting the criteria for the top five tips.

Our expert Grand National 2012 Tips Profit Pack is out now. .

To receive exclusive free copy, simply fill in the form at http://www.grand-national-tips-2012.com/

Part five coming soon will reveal our Grand National 2012 tip: Why weights matter. 

Grand National 2012 Tips Series: 

Smart Betting Club. With thanks to Pro Form Professional, an excellent horse racing analysis tool.

Top Five Grand National 2012 Tips Part 4: Jockey & Trainer Trends

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts at the Smart Betting Club delve into the stats to unearth the top five Grand National 2012 tips for finding a winner in the big race.

In Part three of our Top Five Grand National 2012 Tips series, we looked at the importance of the the handicap weight. In this article, we look at jockey & trainer trends.

For more top Grand National 2012 tips including bets from expert tipsters, make sure you check out the FREE SBC Grand National 2012 tips package.  

Grand National 2012 Tip #4: The Best Jockeys For The National. 

With so much attention on the horses, it’s easy to forget about the importance of the poor fellows attempting to steer their ride to victory. Just like Formula 1, you can have a fine engine, but it’s the driver that decides how the race will be run (and hopefully won).

Some jockeys have a better record than others at the Grand National as the following analysis shows. With so many jockeys taking part over the years, we have restricted our analysis to some of the bigger names and more frequent riders.

Jockey performance since 1997

We have to be wary of reading too much into jockey stats because the sample size is so low, but they still make for interesting reading.

The standout performer in recent years is Ruby Walsh with two winners from his ten runs. Backing all his rides blindly would have produced an excellent profit of 12.5 points (125% ROI) to Betfair prices. Tom Scudamore by contrast has a poor record, with no wins from his nine runs.

With a paucity of data to work with, it make sense to not just look at the winners, but also how often a jockey gets a horse into the right area.

Jockey place strike rate since 1997

Incredibly, not only has Ruby Walsh won twice, he’s also won or placed in 60% of his National runs. If you’re looking for an Each Way angle, Ruby’s ride has to be a contender.

The win and place stats also show that AP McCoy has been banging on the door for many years with a 35.71% win/ place strike rate.

Unfortunately Tom Scudamore’s stats don’t get any better, with none of his horses even placing.

Jockey Declarations For the National

The jockeys have now mostly been declared for the National. Here are the horses which match up to the jockeys profiled above.

  • Timmy Murphy: Weird Al
  • AP McCoy: Synchronised (favourite)
  • P Carberry: Not yet declared
  • Barry Geraghty Shakalakaboomboom
  • R Walsh: On His Own
  • Tom Scudamore: Junior

These jockey trends might not be reliable enough on their own, but if they could help you fine tune your shortlist.

Trainer Trends

Similar to the jockey trends, there are some interesting statistics on the trainers, but these also need to be taken with a pinch of salt due to the low sample sizes.

What is striking is how spread out the National winners have been across the population of trainers. The big name trainers don’t seem to have as much of an advantage as you might think as the numbers below indicate:

Grand National trainer records from 1997

Big name trainers like Paul Nicholls have had a poor record at the National with no winners so far. D Pipe has bettered his Father’s post 1997 record by finding a winner, but it’s not been enough to beat the odds.

As with the jockeys, we can probably get more meaningful information by looking at the number of times a trainer has managed to get horses in the right area, not just win.

Jonjo O’Neil has had just 20 runners, but a quarter of these have won or placed. Similarly, three of WP Mullins 19 runners have won or placed. Paul Nicholl’s record doesn’t get much better when we look at the win & place strike rate and it seems to be feast or famine with Nigel Twiston Davis with only one horse placing in additional to his two winners.

Trainer Declarations For the National

Here are the featured trainers entries for the 2012 national at present:

  • Jonjo O’Neil: Synchronised, Arbor Supreme, Sunnyhillyboy.
  • D Pipe: Junior, Swing Bill.
  • Nigel Twiston Davis: Viking Blond, Hello Bud.
  • Paul Nicholls: Neptune Collonges.
  • W P Mullins: On His Own, The Midnight Club & Quiscover Fontaine.

Summary – Grand National 2012 Tip #4: The Best Jockeys 

If you want more tips like this, including bets that expert tipsters are following, make sure you download our FREE Grand National 2012 Tips Pack. This pack will also highlight all the horses currently meeting the criteria for the top five tips.

Our expert Grand National 2012 Tips Profit Pack is out now. .

To receive exclusive free copy, simply fill in the form at http://www.grand-national-tips-2012.com/

Part five coming soon will reveal our Grand National 2012 tip: Why weights matter. 

Grand National 2012 Tips Series: 

Smart Betting Club. With thanks to Pro Form Professional, an excellent horse racing analysis tool.

Top Five Grand National 2012 Tips Part 3: The Right Weight

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts at the Smart Betting Club delve into the stats to unearth the top five Grand National 2012 tips for finding a winner in the big race.

In Part two of our Top Five Grand National 2012 Tips series, we looked at the importance of the Starting Price. In this article, we look at the importance of the handicap weight.

For more top Grand National 2012 tips including bets from expert tipsters, make sure you check out the FREE SBC Grand National 2012 tips package.  

Grand National 2012 Tip #3: Not too heavy, not too light. 

The Grand National is a handicap race which means that each horse will be carrying a certain weight to supposedly even out the contest. In theory the heaviest weight goes on the most able horse and the lightest weight goes on the least able, but in practice it doesn’t always work out like this thanks to some clever race timing by some trainers after the formal weights are announced.

The current favourite Synchronised is an impressive horse, but is carrying the heaviest weight of 11 stone 10 pounds as a handicap. Will this be too much of a burden for the Gold Cup winner? Unfortunately history is not on its side…

The following table shows the performance of horses by their weight rank. “Ranked 1-5” means the horses was given one of the heaviest weights, e.g. Synchronised is ranked number one presently. Rank 36-40 means the horse was given one of the lightest handicaps. You can check the horses in handicap weight order on the Racing Post website.

Continue reading →

Arsenal v Man City Betting Ideas

Posted on by Dan

In this article, our friends at Football Form Lab analyse the data to find betting ideas for Arsenal vs Man City.

Arsenal v Manchester City: Sunday April 8th 16:00.

Should United beat QPR at Old Trafford earlier in the afternoon, Man City face the prospect of going to the Emirates eight points behind United in the title race. With the stakes this high, surely anything less than a win for City will spell the end of their challenge. Meanwhile Arsenal are locked in an even closer battle for third and fourth, making this a vital fixture for both teams.

So what are the Arsenal v Man City Betting Ideas?

This will be the 15th time City have travelled to Arsenal in the Premier League era and they are still looking for their first win, having lost 10/14 and scoring just five goals in total. Moreover, given City’s recent away record of four defeats in nine, with wins coming against just Aston Villa and Wigan, the Gunners win looks the best value in the match outcome market, especially given they’ve won 11 of their last 14 home matches. Arsenal can be backed at 2.5 to win.

The past two meetings between these teams at the Emirates have ended goalless and this fixture has ended with fewer than three goals in six of the past seven years, while the reverse finished 1-0 to City back in December. It’s surprising to see the bookies go odds against for -2.5 goals, especially considering the fact that City haven’t scored more than once in an away game since the start of November, nine games ago. Eight of those nine away games finished with -2.5 goals with six of the last seven having fewer than two scores.  Under 2.5 goals is a generous looking 2.1.

Following on from this, just two of the last eight editions of this fixture have seen the opening goal in the first half hour, while just one goal has been scored in City’s last seven away first halves. The first goal being scored after 28 minutes can be backed at 2.1.

Matches between these two have been pretty feisty in the past couple of seasons with all five meetings since 2009/10 having at least 50 booking points and with Martin Atkinson in charge there may well be a buying opportunity.

Using Football Form Labs you can identify thousands of betting opportunities every week from team streaks to hidden form. Take up a 28 day free trial today.

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Top Five Grand National 2012 Tips Part 2: Focus On Favourites

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts at the Smart Betting Club delve into the stats to unearth the top five Grand National 2012 tips for finding a winner in the big race.

In Part one of our Top Five Grand National 2012 Tips series, we looked at the importance of age. In this article, we look at the importance of betting odds.

For more top Grand National 2012 tips including bets from expert tipsters, make sure you check out the FREE SBC Grand National 2012 tips package.  

Grand National 2012 Tip #2: Focus On Favourites

If you were one of the lucky punters to back Mon Mome at 100/1 in 2009, good on you. There’s nothing better than landing a big priced winner. However, it should be noted that since 1997, this has been the only horse to win from the bottom half of the betting order.

Although a big priced winner might be appealing, in pure profit terms, you would have been much better off by focusing on the front end of the betting market in recent years. Continue reading →

Top Five Grand National 2012 Tips For Picking A Winner.

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts at the Smart Betting Club delve into the stats to unearth the top five Grand National 2012 tips for finding a winner in the big race.

When statisticians compile details of the nation’s betting habits, there are two things that regularly come top of the list.

1)      The National Lottery.

2)      The Grand National.

With the Grand National going off with around 40 runners, many people believe they are both effectively lotteries! However, unlike the random balls of the lottery, there are some patterns in the National over the years that might help you earn some bragging rights in the office come Monday morning. If you don’t bag the winner, there is still the potential for some tasty each way payouts.

For more top Grand National 2012 tips including bets from expert tipsters, make sure you check out the FREE SBC Grand National 2012 tips package.  

First, let’s have a look at what we’re up against and how to level the playing field…. Continue reading →

Grand National 2012 Tips – Register To Get Your Free Profit Pack

Posted on by Mike

The Grand National is the race that stops a nation and if like millions of others you are looking for tips on the best horses to back, then our forthcoming Grand National 2012 Tips guide will be right up your street.

Due to be published on Wednesday 11th April, it will feature tips, advice and expertise from a range of proven betting professionals all designed to help you pick this year’s top Grand National tips.

Our Grand National 2012 Tips Guide will contain…

  • Racing Expert Scott Armstrong’s Four Top Grand National 2012 Tips

Find out professional gambler Scott’s thoughts on the Grand National including his 4 top tips against the field. Scott has a proven track record horse racing – including picking out last year’s winner ‘Ballabriggs’. Can he do the same again this year?

  • The Must-Read Grand National 2012 Profit Trends

Check out our unique look at all the best profit trends for this year’s Grand National including…What’s the right age for a winner, Long-shots or favourites and Trainer trends and top jockeys.

  • Top Tips On How To Make Profits In The 2012 Grand National Betting Market

Read our expert guide on how to read the 2012 Grand National betting market from top tips experts – The Market Examiner. Make sure you are aware of what to watch out for on the day of the race.

  • How To Make Betting Profits All Year Round – The Easy Way

Making money betting is not just for the Grand National, its for life. Find out the easy way to pick up winning tips all year round in our exclusive guide.

All Available Free From Wednesday 11th April – Register To Get Your Copy Today

Our expert Grand National 2012 Tips Profit Pack will be published for free on Wednesday 11th April.

To pre-register to receive your exclusive free copy sent to your email address as soon as released, simply fill in the form at http://www.grand-national-tips-2012.com/

Champions League Value Bets: A tough evening ahead for English teams

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, but there just haven’t been enough major upsets.
Bets: 73
Profit/ loss: -21 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Chelsea vs Valencia: Chelsea 53.3% chance. No value with Chelsea.
  • Olympiakos vs Arsenal: Arsenal 47% chance. Value with Arsenal.
  • Basel v Man U: Man U 61.2% chance. No value with Man U.
  • Man City vs Bayern Munich: Man City 46.3% chance. No value with Man City.
The English clubs should be around evens, but there’s little value on offer.

Here are all the games:



Likely to be some funky value levels tonight due to some sides fielding weaker teams.

NB bets like Olympiakos & Draw mean the ratings find value in both the draw and the away side so both are backed using a bookmaker’s Double Chance. If a game is missing it means there is no value in any proposition.

Bet Ideas:

You can follow the value bets blindly or use them to inform your own betting. For example, Otelul are big value against United, but if the match were played 1000 times, they’d still only win a handful of times. Therefore you might want to pick and choose or use Asian Handicaps to level the playing field.

With this in mind, here are some of the bets that caught our eye:

  • Don’t fancy much tonight with some teams already through/ not through.
  • Chelsea vs Valencia: Valencia +0.75 @ 2.02 Ladbrokes.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Smart Betting Club. 

 

Sportsman Racing: Imperious Big Bucks Cashes In

Posted on by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

Carruthers provided a success for the underdog and horse racing itself when he bounced back to form to win the Hennessy Gold Cup. From the small Mark Bradstock yard, ridden by journeyman jockey Mattie Batchelor and owned by the Oaskseys who have done so much for the Injured Jockey Fund this was an inspiring success. Fitted with a tongue-tie for the first time the eight-year-old front-running Carruthers made a few early jumping errors (matched at 55 on Betfair) before settling into a rhythm and running on strongly to win by three-and-a-quarter lengths. Last season Carruthers was riddled with a virus but it was only two seasons ago the horse was fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Welsh National on December 27th may be his next aim. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Great Expectations In Hennessy

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott provides us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – including the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

Saturday witnesses one of the best races in the National Hunt calendar, The Hennessy Gold Cup over three-mile-two-furlongs at Haydock while at Newcastle the Fighting Fifth pays welcome to the return of Nicky Henderson’s Binocular.

Other equine stars running at the weekend are Big Bucks in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury and Peddlers Cross in a novice chase at Bangor though short prices will be the order of the day for those two.

Aiteenthirtythree with Ruby Walsh on board is shading market favouritism for the Hennessy at 11-2 in front of Great Endeavour and Wymott. The Hennessy has been a long term aim for Paul Nicholls’ charge and the Master of Ditcheat has a fine record in the race having won the event three times in the last ten years. Aiteenthirtythree has a great record at the Newbury track, successful on the last two occasions he has run there and will love the strong pace. Pin-fired after his final outing last term the concern at the price on offer is the seven-year-old has largely been winning in small fields and this race will be a different kettle of fish with eighteen horses set to go to post.

Second favourite is David Pipe’s Great Endeavour at 13-2. The seven-year-old gelding has taken rank as one of the top two and a half mile chasers following his win in the Paddy Power. The question is will he last home with his trainer himself saying “3m 2f might be a bit far”. The speed he showed in the aforementioned Paddy Power at Cheltenham is a worry over the longer distance yet his best run over hurdles came over the 3m 2f trip at Cheltenham in 2009 when third in a Listed event. I’m inclined to risk Great Endeavour having the engine to last out stamina wise and back him to obtain the big-race double. Continue reading →