Euro 2012 Tips: Finding Value Bets In The Euro 2012 Top Scorer Market

Here at the Smart Betting Club we have been beavering away on all the best betting angles and Euro 2012 Tips for the upcoming tournament.

One of the most popular but often toughest markets to bet upon is the Euro 2012 Top Scorer, where it can pay to look away from the usual suspects.

In recent major tournaments, this market has triggered some major shocks with winners such as Thomas Muller at 100/1 (2010 World Cup – shared with D.Villa 8/1 & W.Sneijder 100/1) , Milan Baros 50/1 (Euro 2004) & Davor Suker 33/1 (1998 World Cup).

Where then can we look for value this time around? To help us we have enlisted the help of Football Form Labs excellent football betting software to analyse some of the best value Euro 2012 top scorer tips.

Euro 2012 Top Scorer Tips: Key Stats

First of all we asked Football Form Lab to take a look at some key stats for this market since 1996 when the Euros increased to 16 teams:

  • Four or five goals have been enough to win since 1996. Eight players have managed to score at least four times.
  • Four of the five winners played for teams that at least reached the semi-finals.
  • 8 out of 11 2nd and 3rd placed scorers (including ties) reached the quarter-finals with 5 out of 11 making the semis.
  • The top 4 goalscorers in each of the last 6 tournaments have scored at least once in the group stage.
  • All but one of the top 2 goalscorers in each of the last 6 tournaments have scored at least twice in the group stage.
  • The past five winners have all been aged 22-26 at the time and made their debuts 3-6 years prior to the tournament.

So, in a nutshell, we are looking for:

  • If betting to win, a player in a side likely to make the semi-finals and with some relatively easy group fixtures
  • If betting each way then a player in a side likely to make the quarter-finals
  • A player aged between 22 and 26 and with international experience behind them

So with those stats in mind, we began to draw up a shortlist of some of the most interesting contenders at bigger prices.

Narrowing Down Our Euro 2012 Top Scorer Shortlist

The first thing we did was rule out players from the incredibly tough Group B (Holland, Germany & Portugal) which involved the 3 favourites – Gomez, Van Persie & Ronaldo & others such as Klose, Huntelaar & Muller.

None of these teams face easy group games, which is a major factor in being top goalscorer and all face a major challenge to just qualify. The Germans and Dutch may end up sharing their goals around between several deeper lying attackers.

That then left a clear path for us amongst some other players away from the Group of Death at bigger value odds, which fit our criteria including:

Fernando Llorente (Spain, 16/1) scored 29 goals for Athletic Bilbao this season and has seven international goals to his name from just six starts (20 caps). At 27 and having debuted back in 2008 for the national side he fits a similar profile to recent past winners.
Suggestion: Cracking bet, especially if starting up-front in place of the injured David Villa. Easy group and very likely to get to semi-finals at least

Karim Benzema (France, 16/1) had a superb season for Real Madrid scoring 32 goals. However, his strike rate at international level is a relatively modest 13 goals in 42 appearances.
Suggestion: If France click, he will be the likely goalscorer despite a less than prolific past. Aged 24 and full of confidence after winning La Liga, he fits our profile although concern over a potential quarter-final game against Spain if not winning Group D.

Robert Lewandowski (Poland, 25/1) has enjoyed a breakout season with Dortmund as he found the net 30 times in 46 games. Since 2010 he’s also scored 10 international goals in just 22 appearances and aged 23 he fits our profile.
Suggestion: If the Poles can get out of their poor group, he is certainly worth an Each Way interest. Potential tough quarter-final draw against one of Holland or Germany.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Sweden, 50/1) finished as Serie A’s top scorer this season and while this is hardly a vintage Sweden team they have a realistic chance of making it out of the group.Aged 30 so out of our ideal age range.
Suggestion: Sweden could spring a surprise and if they do, expect Zlatan to be banging them in. At 50/1 represents possible value.

Euro 2012 Top Scorer – In Summary

Of the favourites, Fernando Llorente looks the best value as he is set to replace David Villa as the main goal threat in their front three and if Villa was here and fit we’d expect him to be the outright favourite.

Drilling down further if either of France, Poland and Sweden can spring a surprise of sorts, then the likes of Benzema, Lewandowski and Ibrahimovic will be leading the way. All 3 play for top teams in Real Madrid, Dortmund and AC Milan, each had fantastic seasons and so arrive at the Euros bang in form.

Register For Your Free Euro 2012 Tips Guide

The above is taken from our forthcoming free guide to Euro 2012 that we will be releasing on Tuesday the 5th June – just in time for the first game next Friday. Register to pick up your free Euro 2012 Tips Guide at