It’s been a long hard summer for us football fans, with good betting opportunities few and far between, yet finally the beautiful game returns in full this Saturday with the start of the English Premier League.
Before you place any bets this weekend, I wanted to share with you our 8 Top Football Betting Tips (as put forward by a variety of punting experts) to help you bash the bookies.
Each tip has been compiled based on the advice supplied by the football experts interviewed in our recently released 2013/14 Season Football Tipster Guide.
1) Don’t Bet On What’s Popular
Doing what everyone else is doing can often be a pointless exercise and some would go as far as suggesting that you can’t make money in the long run backing “popular” bets. It might be psychologically re-assuring to read lots of people agreeing with a bet you fancy, but in reality the fact that lots of people want to back something means you are unlikely to be getting a value price.
There’s a reason most bookies list their top 10 most popular bets on their homepage. Be your own person, learn to truly ignore what everyone else is saying and don’t be afraid to go as far against the grain as you find comfortable to go.
2) Bet With A Sound Staking Plan
We know of nobody who bets seriously and doesn’t follow a suitable staking plan. It’s a must to keep your staking sensible and to use a set strategy – not least as it will help you ride out the inevitable losing runs that will come your way! It can also help reign you in if you get carried away during a purple patch of winners…
3) Avoid Bets Where The Market Offers No Value
Checking out the margins on any given book is another bit of sagely advice and we suggest avoiding any bet in a market that doesn’t have a minimum of a 97% book. If the bookies are taking a big cut you’ve got to beat them just to breakeven. Note – This is easily done when using a service like Oddsportal, where the odds for the Man City – Newcastle game show books ranging from 98.4% to 90.9%.
4) Focus Away From The Big Markets
Every man and his dog knows about the top sides in all the major leagues and so the further down the football pyramid you go, the greater your chances of finding a value bet are.
Many football tipping experts focus on lower leagues for this exact reason with one of the best football brains we know betting only on non-league football. After all, a winner on Staines Town at 2/1 pays the same as a winner on Arsenal at 2/1!
5) Become A Master of A Few Leagues, Not A Jack of All!
If you can also specialise your betting in just a handful of leagues (especially lower leagues), then it can also help you keep one step ahead of the bookies. Hone in on one or two leagues and stick to them. Get to know each side well using club websites and forums (great for getting ‘insider’ info on things like injuries and suspensions) and the chances are you will know more than the bookies before long!
6) Price Up Your Bet Before You Check The Odds
Before picking out a football bet, many experts recommend that you price up a betting market yourself before looking at the actual odds available. This helps give you the best possible chance of forming an unbiased opinion. Try doing this across a league or game where you have an interest and see what sticks out as a value bet once you check the odds!
7) Bet with a Minimum Value Threshold
This follows on from point 6 as if you can also work out what your minimum price on any bet is – this can really assist your betting.
Here’s an example of why this is so important: If you expect to make 10% ROI when backing a team at 4.00 (3/1), what happens if you place your bet at 3.50 (5/2)?
If you place your bet at 3.50, your profit expectation has gone! You’re looking at a long-term loss of -3.75% instead of a profit of 10%.
If you placed your bet at 3.75, you’d be looking at a potential profit of +3.13%.
Bet @ 4.00: Profit = 10%
Bet @ 3.75: Profit = 3.13%
Bet @ 3.50: Loss = -3.75%
There is a sliding scale of diminishing returns so remember price is everything! Resist the urge to bet regardless of the price and only bet if the odds are still sufficiently in your favour.
8 ) Place Accumulators As ‘Fun’ Bets Only
This last point is a controversial one, but in our experience accumulators are very poor value bets and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. There is a good reason the bookies constantly push them on punters – they very rarely come in and they only serve to swell their coffers.
Although the attractions of bagging a big acca are obvious – don’t be fooled into thinking they are anything but a bit of fun and treat them as such.
Knowing The Best Football Experts To Follow
These 8 expert football tips have been inspired by the advice put forward by the 10 experts interviewed in our 2013/14 Season Football Tipster Guide.
Available free to all SBC members, it’s your ticket to helping find the right tipster with a proven track record of making money betting.
- Relatively new to betting? Find the experts who will help you every step of the way;
- Only ever made a loss betting? Read about the experts who can change that for good;
- Don’t trust tipsters? Find out why our independent guide reveals only the genuinely profitable.
Sign-up for the Smart Betting Club and pick-up your copy right now!