A Deep Dive Into How To Examine A Tipster – Real World Example On This Flawed Service

The August SBC Magazine featured two major tipster reviews of services which could not be more different.

The first review was a look at the very impressive NFL service that ticked a lot of boxes. You can read more about that here.

The second review presented a very different challenge as on the face of it, this looked to be a promising racing service, yet it was only when we ran our detailed analysis that several flaws were revealed.

In today’s post I want to talk a little bit about them, the review process and how you need to be careful judging based on initial appearances and let the data speak for itself.

To benefit from our incisive tipster reviews, betting expertise and real world knowledge on how to win betting – join my team and I at the Smart Betting Club today.

Independent review stance

This racing tipster review was a few years in the making and it’s worth a little insight first of all into the process behind it all.

Initially the tipster was in touch in late 2021 asking if we would promote them for a fee.

Unaware of our independent stance, we gave them a firm NO (they actually asked this a few times over the past few years and always got the same answer) but encouraged them to proof if they would like to be independently reviewed in the future, which they started in 2021.

Moving forward to late 2023 and at that point the service had advised 2,000 bets and had made a circa 8.5% ROI so we kickstarted the review process, which included:

  • Looking at the record and how data is captured
  • Extensive proofing of bets to gauge things like odds availability, price sensitivity and the reliance on certain bookmakers
  • Watching the bets arriving ‘live’ to see how things operated in real time
  • Checking our proofing results against any records kept on site
  • Examining against Betfair SP to judge market advantage

All Is Not As It Seems

There is a sizeable portion of the tipster market, especially on social media, who are out and out con men. Faked records, deleted losers, closing down and opening again under a new name – there is a list of dodgy strategies that are worthy of a book.

What we have in this review is none of those things. The record ‘on site’ is accurate and the bets that are sent out to members are reflected in the publicly accessible spreadsheet.

So, why do we not rate this service? This table provides the first clue as more than half the bets advised had worse prices come 9.30am:

This is because a sizeable portion of bets by this tipster are advised the night before racing into very weak betting markets and in the current climate, this just isn’t practical to follow or to quote as ‘fair’ odds.

By the time the odds on 11am of the day of racing arrived, these bets actually showed a loss, so any edge was reliant on ‘ricks’ or stand out prices from the evening before.

Whatever the sport, betting into weak markets is not a sustainable approach that paid customers can realistically use long-term. Be it NFL, racing, football, golf or any other you choose to bet on.

Soft bookmakers will quickly kick you out if constantly beating them in weak markets and often there is not enough liquidity to bet on them on betting exchanges and/or sharp bookmakers.

Another issue was the use of concessions. Many bets were advised with extra places that were only available with one or two bookmakers (e.g. SkyBet). These bets may well be profitable on paper but how many of them will you get on before your account disappears? How scalable are they?

Thirdly, Best Odds Guaranteed (Also known as BOG – a very specific horse racing betting boost) was also used in the service’s record keeping for bets advised on the day. Whilst this may be attainable for some followers (if they are long-term losers who don’t beat prices), not all accounts have this available to them.

Finally, the service also made changes to the markets they targeted in early 2024 and that, alongside a sizeable loss so far this year, has reduced the ROI to just 6.06%.

That 6.06% ROI requires the customer to:

  • Place bets immediately. There was a 5.79% ROI reduction on overnight bets come 11am.
  • Require extra place concessions only available with specific bookies. If you didn’t have them, you would not match the results. Shave perhaps 2-3% ROI off that 6.06% ROI for this alone.
  • Need the extra edge from the Best Odds Guaranteed concession. Again most accounts that win have that removed at the same time as staking limits. Another shaving of perhaps 2-3% ROI on that 6.06% ROI

Ultimately it left us with no confidence that there was any edge for this tipster as it was reliant on 1) weak markets 2) extra boosts and concessions and 3) the need for very specific bookmakers.

Betfair SP Quirk

For every horse racing tipster we also look at Betfair SP results, which are easy to place on the Betfair Exchange as this can often be an angle with certain tipsters.

Betfair SP is also a great ‘closing line’ comparison tool to work out any tipster’s edge over the market. For this service we were able to match 93% of the advised bets to Betfair SP win and place market odds.

What we found in terms of Betfair SP revealed that despite the average odds being significantly higher (12.61) vs the advised odds (9.763) there was actually a loss being made of circa -0.93% ROI on these bets.

Suggesting that they had no edge over the closing market.

We also can’t recall seeing such a sizeable average odds difference between advised and Betfair SP odds before.

Proper Edges For Sustainable Profits

So whilst we didn’t uncover a profitable racing tipster in this review, what it does outline is our process and reinforces what makes a good service. This helps to empower our members and explain what to look for when they come across a tipster.

This includes many important factors such as attainable odds, bets that aren’t going to destroy your accounts and demonstrable edges that manifest themselves in CLV or long-term profits.

The service in question had none of these things but we have reviewed plenty of services that do.

Join SBC today and you will be able to find out about these services, with our full back catalogue instantly available. In addition, there are many other benefits to membership with us that you can read about here!

📰 SBC Magazine Issue #144: NFL Expert & When An Edge Isn’t An Edge!

Yesterday saw the release of SBC Magazine #144 and it is packed with information, news, resources and reviews to help you to make your betting profitable.

After publishing our Sports Tipster Profit Report in place of our monthly magazine in July, August sees us release two new tipster reviews and it is fair to say that they are very different!

One focuses on a service that is doing everything right – selective betting, consistent closing line value (CLV), profits and excellent customer service. The other is a little different – stand out prices, the use of concessions and ‘boosts’ and an edge that may be good on paper, but almost worthless in reality.

We provide a snapshot of what’s inside below. If it sounds like it could be for you, then sign-up for membership to get instant access to SBC 144 and our full back catalogue.

Clocking in at 54 pages long, SBC 144 includes:

  • Analysis of a long-running NFL service which has a 13.39% ROI from 5 seasons’ worth of bets, with excellent CLV and viability on exchanges and with sharp books
  • A review that looks at how not to do things, with a seemingly decent ROI needing several caveats attached to their record
  • SBC Member Q & As, with practical advice provided by the SBC team
  • A new SBC podcast, an international guest appearance and a new video guide for the excellent Monetos in-play football service

Sign Up For Instant Access

To gain instant access SBC Magazine #146 and all of our back catalogue of reviews and reports, you will require SBC Membership. To sign up as a paid SBC member, just click here and follow the registration link.

To have a good look at what SBC Members get, this video introduces changes to the area of the site for those with full subscriptions, providing you with a sneak peak of what is inside!

Brand New Tipster Review – The NFL Tipster With a Great 5 Season Record +13.39% ROI

Following on from my appearance on the Circles off Podcast about using SBC to bet in North America, here at SBC we have just published a brand new tipster review about an NFL tipster with a significant edge!

It’s available to read now with an SBC membership!

NFL – GET TO THE END ZONE FOR PROFIT

This particular NFL Tipster Review is one that has been 5 years in the making.

The reason for this elongated time period is that this service only averages around 60-70 bets a season, due to the fact the NFL season isn’t the biggest and it only bets when it finds real value (naturally!).

Now that we have enough data to work with, here is what we’ve found:

  • Return On Investment (ROI) stands at 13.39% from just under 300 bets
  • Targeting major markets only – Spreads and Totals, which have huge volume traded on them and are very easy to get on
  • Advising bets on a Thursday or Friday when markets are resilient (not simply scraping early value as we see so many do)
  • 52.5% of bets have beaten the closing line, with a further 26.5% going off at the same price. Only 21.2% of bets have a worse closing line – this is important as it suggests they are ‘beating the market’.
  • Bets are profitable with various outlets, including soft bookmakers, sharp bookmakers and exchanges
  • Up to a £50 discount on the service for SBC members.

The Practicalities Of Betting in these markets

What is especially smart about this service is how easy it is to get on at value prices .

Both myself and SBC’s Rowan Day have used it extensively over the last two to three years and we have found ourselves beating the prices on a consistent basis by using exchanges and sharp bookmakers.

Liquidity is deep and market coverage is comprehensive for these markets, so if you struggle to get bets down or want to boost the ROI further, they are great ways to make some profits.

Best of all its affordably priced at just £275 for a full season and £225 for SBC members courtesy of an exclusive discount we have negotiated.

Sign Up To Read The Full Review

SBC Membership provides some excellent benefits and this service alone encapsulates many of them. As a member, you get:

  • A deep-dive into everything you need to know to decide whether this service is for you, including P & L tables, CLV analysis, Monte Carlo simulations and all of our other advanced analytics
  • £50 off the price for a full season packages
  • Our wider group of resources to help you get on at the very best prices; this includes our major & minor bookmaker guides, our brokers information and of course, our work on exchanges

To get instant access to all of this, you will need a SBC subscription, which can be obtained here.

If you would like to know more, please get in touch!

Circles Off Podcast – Using SBC’s Expertise To Profit In North America (And All Around The World!)

A lot of our work at SBC over the last 12 months has focused on expanding geographically (Betting Without Borders), with sports and services from around the world making up a much bigger fraction of our reviews and content.

As sports like horse racing become more and more difficult to profit from, finding new opportunities is essential as we all adapt to the betting landscape.

In a new FREE SBC Magazine, we outline how we can help bettors from North America (and everywhere else in the world!). Click here to get your copy! It contains three reviews, some extra information and some handy odds comparison tables for converting fractional, decimal and American odds.

After talking to a Brazilian podcast back in November, this week I joined the North American based podcast, Circles Off to talk to the well-known bettors Rob Pizzola and Johnny from Betstamp about all things tipping (or handicapping!) and The SBC!

In this interview (which can be watched by clicking here or on the image below), we also chatted about the industry’s evolution and the new generation of tipping services.

video preview

Learn More About How We Can Help You

To learn more about how we are evolving our services to provide bespoke advice we have compiled various resources, including:

All of this (and much more) is summarised on our ‘How We Can Help Your Betting‘ page, where you will also find details and links to discounts, educational resources and our review processes.

If you like the look of what we offer here at the SBC then sign up options are available to view here and our cast-iron money back guarantee means that you can try us out and get a full refund if the service isn’t for you!

I hope you enjoy the podcast and learning about how we can help you make some money from your betting.

Please remember to get your free SBC sample magazine too by clicking here!

If you want to ask any further questions about The SBC or anything else betting related, please get in touch!

The (Genuine) Experts To Help Your Football Betting This Season With SBC

Football really does offer the biggest breadth of betting opportunities and here at the Smart Betting Club, we have a wide range of tipsters, tools and experts to guide you along the path to profit this coming season.

So forget listening to washed up ex-players and pundits with no actual betting expertise and focus on those with a track record of winning – those recommended by us at SBC.

With the football season about to get into full swing, there may be something that could be the perfect addition to your betting portfolio.

To read all our analysis, savings deals and reviews on each of these services – join SBC today!

How To Win Football Betting With SBC

Here are just a few of the services we have examined and recommended recently which offer edges on football betting:

  • A detailed examination of Pinnacle Odds Dropper (POD) and Chasing Steamers – which both track notable price contractions at Pinnacle, providing followers with the opportunity to back said selections with soft bookmakers. Both come with substantial SBC member discounts and are ideal for football bettors.
  • Footy Star, an excellent algorithm-based value spotter who finds winning bets in the ‘both team to score’ markets. His record is frankly superb with a 14.4% ROI over 1872 bets so far. Best of all, SBC Members can get instant access to Footy Star’s bets via Telegram and if you would like to learn more about the service, you can do so here.
  • The fantastic in-play service: Monetos, a unique offering run by a group of pro punters who have a 6,17% ROI from 1600 bets. Profitable on exchanges and NOT detrimental to bookmaker accounts, Monetos is a service making real waves right now. A full review can be found in SBC Issue 141.
  • The Early Payout Tracker service as recommended by our blogger, Rowan, who has more than doubled his bank using it. As first explored in SBC Issue 142
  • The unique Antepost Betting Service run by a professional punter which is ideal for those of you looking for lots of sharp action to take. This is another service to have more than doubled their money last season. Again in SBC Issue 142, we have an exclusive SBC member video interview with the punter behind it, to walk through how it works and how you can take advantage of it.
  • Analysis on Football Trading Club, a pre-match service that finds value in major markets with both bookmakers and exchanges and which continues to impress with their one-bet-a-day strategy.

The above is just a small snapshot of the services we have analysed, reviewed and recommended to follow to our members. As ever we leave no stone unturned to help you make a profit with our expertise!

To access all of our reports, insight and excellent discounts you will require a paid Smart Betting Club membership.

To get this before the football season gets into full swing, you can sign up here and choose the best membership for you.

As ever, if you have any questions about football tipsters, the SBC or anything else betting related, please get in touch!

🎧SBC Podcast #76 – Betting Clever: Smart-Bash, The Gambling Commission & Golf Betting (Variance Cuts Both Ways)🎧

In the latest SBC Podcast I am joined by SBC’s Josh as the Betting Clever podcast returns to tackle a whole host of important topics in the betting world.

Smart-Bash was hosted at Stamford Bridge a few weeks ago so we start with that – what was it like? What did we get from it? What could be improved? Who should have been there?

The Gambling Commission are on the agenda (again!) and their new survey methodology doesn’t look like it will be good news for punters – we explain why.

In addition, we touch on golf betting, Twitter/X, The Racing Blogger’s Betslips and some SBC services that are suitable for every bettor – especially those looking for options away from ‘soft bookmakers’

You can listen to Episode 76 now via Apple / Spotify / YouTube and all other major podcast directories (search Smart Betting Club)

 

As ever, if you have any topics or areas of the gambling world that you would like us to discuss, please get in touch!

Enjoy!

🏈🎾SBC’s Latest Sports Tipster Profit Report Is OUT NOW⛳🎯

Fourteen services, a plethora of different sports and options for every level of bettor.

That is what SBC Members will find inside the latest Sports Tipster Profit Report that was released today – you can get instant access too, with a quick sign-up being all that is required!

Inside, we update our independent ratings for everything from profits and bank growth through to transparency and customer service so that members can find the right service for them.

This issue contains:

  • 2 odds dropping services & a value finding tool for every major market.
  • 3 football services and several golf judges.
  • Boxing, NFL, snooker and darts services.
  • Tipsters that are suitable for beginners through to experienced bettors.
  • Shop, soft bookmaker and exchange friendly tipsters.
  • Updates since the last Sports Tipster Profit Report.
  • Our commentary, with the reasons for scores set out.
  • Costs (there are free tipsters too!), alongside any SBC Member discounts available.

More Info & Sign Up

The Five Stages of Profitable Betting and our brand new ‘Betting Without Borders‘ resource work hand-in-hand with our Tipster Profit Reports as we look to tailor our tipster recommendations to find the best services for you.

This means that it doesn’t matter whether you are a beginner or a hardened pro, wherever you live (as long as its legal to bet there!) or if you are limited to bookmakers, shops or exchanges – we have advice that you can filter to find profitable edges that suit your circumstances.

To learn more, please visit the SBC website or direct any questions to me by emailing pete@smartbettingclub.com or by messaging via DM on Twitter/X @SBCInfo.

Alternatively, if you would like to join us right away then you can do so by subscribing. Options for different subscription packages can be found here, with instant access to this report and every other SBC Benefit just two minutes away!

Smart Bash 2024: Expert Panels & Much More

It is now a week since Smart-Bash 2024 and as there was no filming in or around the event, we thought that a short blog on what the day was like would be a good idea! A more detailed account of what the day was all about will follow soon.

In my experience, those of us who live and breathe gambling sound like we’re talking double-dutch to ‘normal’ people whenever anything betting-related comes up in conversation.

‘Winners’ vs. ‘a good price’ , ‘EV’ not having something to do with hippy cars and general probabilistic problems (do you price things up in your head too?!) are thought about in completely different terms by people who don’t work in or around the industry or in similar fields.

That’s why Smart-Bash 2024, which was held in London last week, was so enjoyable. Attendees like me most probably talked a load of nonsense all day (I would make that a 1.01 shot), but collectively, we all seemed to understand each other.

The Panels

The structure of the day, hosted at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge, was defined by 7 panels and a presentation, with breakfast, short breaks and lunch preceding and then breaking up this action.

Listening to the experts on the modelling panels talk about their processes was insightful, even when the sport or market was something that I have little experience of. The exchange discussions were thought-provoking as they collectively grow in popularity and scope. When you have eloquent speakers such as Brian Chappell and Harry Stewart-Moore, even the abyss of despair that is gambling regulation can come to life in an interesting way.

The day opened with a Sharp Punting Panel that focussed on horse racing as Daniel Hussey hosted Johnny Dineen, Chris Poole & Dean Valentine; later, an exchange betting panel containing Jesse May, Ronan McDonagh, Tom Brownlee and Matthew Trenhaile talked about some of the intricacies of these platforms. 

Miguel Figueres and his team are just as impressive ‘in the flesh’ as they are on the WinnerOdds platform; Chris Poole was honest and forthright about the bookie vs. punter battle and how the big firms deal with their betting enemies; speakers who I hadn’t heard a lot from before like Bill Chen and Dylan Beirne are very obviously masters in their respective fields.

In short, the panels were a great way to get the experts talking. They bounced off each other and shared wisdom, which is a tricky thing to pick up when reading a book or listening to a podcast.

The ‘Networking’

All of this was surrounded by something even better. We arrived on Tuesday and got to meet up with people we’ve worked with or talked to for a long time over email, social media or at best, over the phone or on Zoom. Pete and I (who were meeting for only the second time in person ourselves) got to sit and chat with colleagues, industry insiders and friends before Friday which was great, as we normally just grunt at each other over voice notes all day.

I’ve always detested ‘networking’ in previous lives as it meant having to promote yourself or listen to some bore talk about some inane subject or other. Last week, and the event itself, was different. That shared language that I mentioned earlier means that meeting new people is not a chore as we all have collective experiences or interests that mean that conversation is easy. Bad beats, the dreaded email from Denise, betting ‘gossip’ – there was plenty to talk about and nothing felt forced.

I got to meet people who I’d only ever listened to talk on podcasts and quiz them about something that I thought they could help me with, SBC Members were well represented so we got to put faces to people who we’d shared hundreds of emails with and punters from Scandinavia, Portugal and Spain shared how their landscape is similar and/or different from ours.

Get Out The Trumpets!

Seeing SBC Award winners pick up their prizes was great too. Fitzdares, Daryl Carter, geegeez, Steve Palmer, Racing Post, Betfair and The Barstewards Enquiry all picked up fancy awards, with photos taken and some (x-rated!) congratulation speeches made. Lee from The Barstewards was obviously very emotional when receiving his award. As the tears welled up in his eyes, he spluttered about pride, a ‘long journey’ and something about it being ‘the best day of his life’ (I may be exaggerating a bit but he was made up).

Fancy prizes were presented to well-deserving recipients, voted for by the betting public

The day closed with food and an open bar (up to a couple of grand only, unfortunately!) and this was another chance to sit around and talk about betting again, late into the night.

Smart-Bash 2025 

If you listened to national coverage about what we all do, you’d think that we were all degenerates sitting in urine- stained jogging bottoms in a dark room all day, slowing frittering away any ‘respectably earned’ money to rapacious bookmakers.

This isn’t the case and whilst there are no doubt challenges within the industry, it was great to be around people who love ‘the game’, finding edges and betting or laying them to make a profit.

This was the first event hosted at this scale and I have no doubt that it will be even better next year. If you were a guest, then I look forward to seeing you again then. If you weren’t, then I can’t recommend taking a day out to join us next year – I look forward to meeting you.

The Winners and Losers from the 2024 SBC Awards – Download Your Free Report!

The results are in…and the winners and losers of the 2024 SBC Awards are now available to view.

Best Free Tipsters, Betting Podcasts, Video, Website, Expert and both Best and Worst Bookmaker (where we have a NEW Gold Award Winner!) – the public’s favourite people, services, sites and villains are ready to be revealed!

To showcase the results we have prepared a 19-page free-to-download 2024 Awards Report for you to enjoy.

Remember – these results are based on YOUR VOTES so represent the consensus opinion on the the very best of the betting & tipping industry. This is not our opinion – it’s yours!

Click on the link below to get access to your report.

Why The SBC Awards Matter

These Awards are important as they are based on the fundamental SBC principles of honesty, fairness and independence, with no bookmaker affiliations or advertising budgets to cloud opinions.

They represent the true judgement of the general betting public and SBC members on what is out there of merit in the betting world and is worthy of greater recognition.

They reward those websites, services, bookmakers and individuals doing the right thing – whether it be in the information or resource they provide OR by simply offering you the best place to bet itself.

And as its voted for by you in your thousands, it represents a real barometer on what is good and also when it comes to bookmakers – what is not!

Find out more about the Smart Betting Club

Established in May 2006, the Smart Betting Club is a 100% independent source for reporting upon, reviewing and monitoring the world of betting advice.

Here is a snapshot of some of the key benefits of SBC Membership that are available to you immediately after signing up:

For more information and subscription options, please visit www.smartbettingclub.com. If you have any questions, please contact us at pete@smartbettingclub.com or via Twitter/X at @SBCInfo and we will get straight back to you!

Smart Bash: Less than 50 tickets remain. Yet more big name speakers and guests announced!

Yet more big names have been confirmed for this year’s unique betting event – SMART-BASH and if you haven’t yet booked your ticket, now is the time!

That’s because there are less than 50 tickets remaining for the event, which is being held on Friday July 19th at Chelsea Football Club.

These tickets are on a first come first serve basis and we will NOT be selling tickets on the door!

SMART-BASH 2024 will be a day packed with invaluable insights, panel sessions and networking among the betting industries brightest minds.

Newly confirmed to be speaking at the event are:

  • Luke Paton – Pro punter with a decade of golf betting experience and 8 years at Betfair.
  • Chris Poole – Director of Trading at BetVictor, 25+ years in the industry, leads a team of 50+ traders.
  • Olof Stenius: Founder of Odds Reactor Ltd, PhD in operations research
  • Harry Stewart-Moore: Expert betting lawyer and partner at Gardner-Leader
  • Brian Chappell: Justice For Punters founder & champion of bettors rights
  • Craig Edwards: Ex-professional snooker player & golf/snooker expert
  • Bill Chen: American quantitative analyst, poker player, and software designer
  • Varun Sudhakar: Ex of Fanduel and now the CEO and Co-Founder of BetDEX

SMART-BASH 2024 is being held on Friday July 19th at Chelsea Football Club and it’s a day packed with invaluable insights, panel sessions and networking among the betting industries brightest minds.

You can book your ticket now whilst spaces remain via this link

The SMART-BASH Schedule

We have also published a schedule of events for the day, which you can see below.

Event Highlights:

  • Insider Strategies: Learn from industry experts through seminars, presentations, and panels tailored to elevate your betting prowess. 💡
  • Networking Opportunities: Engage with fellow betting enthusiasts and professionals, sharing knowledge and forging valuable connections. 🌐
  • Lively Evening: Unwind and mingle at Frankie’s Bar during our lively drinks evening. 🥂

For more information on SMART-BASH visit: https://smart-bash.com/

Click here to purchase your ticket

I look forward to seeing you!