Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

No joy yesterday. In retrospect I should have changed the tracking experiment and made it a no bet day. There really wasn’t much value in those odds and the bookies had things pretty tight. Still, the Holland -1 was a dodgy penalty in the 94th minute away from coming good.

Thankfully today we have one clear cut value bet, at least according to the ratings.

The Castrol ratings for Monday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Paraguay vs Japan

Paraguay: 53% Chance -> Value odds: 1.89-> Best odds 1.55
Japan: 47% Chance -> Value odds: 2.13-> Best odds 2.65 Bet Chronicle.

Japan have 47% chance of qualifying according to Castrol vs the best bookie odds of 2.65 which implies a 37% chance. Who’s right? We’ll find out in a few hours. Japan +0.5 is 1.92 while seems reasonable, but the value bet is Japan to qualify @ 2.65.

2. Spain vs Portugal

Spain: 63% Chance -> Value odds: 1.59 > Best odds 1.48
Portugal: 37% Chance -> Value odds: 2.70 -> Best odds 2.84

Spain should win this, but the value lies with Portugal according to Castrol. Portugal are given a 37% chance which still isn’t great with 2.84 representing a 35% probability. Value, but not enough for me, so I’ll skip this one for the tracking experiment. For the record, Spain are 2.11 for the win, Portugal 4.40 for the win over 90. Portugal +0.5 is 1.91 with 12 bet.

Before we get to today’s matches, here’s the scores on the doors so far:

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Final Group Games:

1. Portugal vs Brazil: Brazil @ 2.30 Various -1.00
2. North Korea vs Ivory Coast: Ivory Coast -1 @ 1.73 +0.73
3. Switzerland vs Honduras: Honduras/ Draw Double Chance @ 2.60 Unibet. +1.60
4. Chile vs Spain: Chile +1 @ 2.14 SBObet. Refund.

4th round:

1. Uruguay vs South Korea. Uruguay @ 1.44. +0.44
2. US vs Ghana: US @ 1.84 -1
3. England vs Germany: England @ 1.92 -1
4. Argentina vs Mexico: Mexico +1 @ 1.93 -1

Running total: 9.2 points from 20 points staked.

Not a great weekend for the ratings, but still up in the week of tracking. England’s rating was a fair bit out, though the bookies were also not prepared for it either, with the best odds of German going through being just 2.00, implying a 50% chance at best. US/ Ghana went down to the wire and Argentina/ Mexico was worth a value shout, though in retrospect the odds for the +1 handicap were rather tight given the Argie’s free scoring tendancies of late.

That’s the update, now lets continue the tracking experiment.

The Castrol ratings for Monday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Holland vs Slovakia

Holland: 86% Chance -> Value odds: 1.16 -> Best odds 1.20 Centrebet.
Slovakia: 14% Chance -> Value odds: 7.14-> Best odds 5.50 bet Chronicle

There’s value in betting on Holland to Qualify according to Castrol, but there’s not much juice in those odds. The 90 minute win pays 1.48 with Pinnacle, while the 90 minute -1 handicap is 1.87 with SBO bet. Technically Holland to qualify at 1.20 should be the value bet, but the -1 handicap seems more attractive given the domination expected.Fine margins though and it looks as though the bookies are largely in line with Castrol here. In reality this would probably be a no bet situation.

1. Brazil vs Chile

Brazil: 78% Chance -> Value odds: 1.28 -> Best odds 1.22 Centrebet.
Chile: 22% Chance -> Value odds: 4.54 -> Best odds 5.00 Boyle Sports.

Again, fine margins with bookies largely in line with Castrol here. Going by Castrol’s rating’s there may even be value in laying Brazil to qualify on betfair at 1.26 lay price. Small value though.

The Chile +1 handicap over 90 minutes @ 1.99 with 188 seems the closest to a value bet, but I’d want a bigger line than that against Brazil if I was betting with my own money. I’ve tracked the castrol ratings by betting on the side of the value though so to be consistent, I won’t skip this one, though don’t expect much. Chile +1 @ 1.99 188bet.

…..According to Castrol ratings.

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

The Castrol ratings were in fine form during the group stages, now its time to see if the ratings can continue to spot the value in the knockout stages.

I’ll update the results from the last group stage matches and today’s US vs Ghana & Uruguay vs Korea games when I get chance.

The Castrol ratings for Sunday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value.

1. England vs Germany

England: 54% Chance -> Value odds: 1.85 -> Best odds 1.92 Bet Chronicle.
Germany: 46% Chance -> Value odds: 2.17-> Best odds 2.00 Victor Chandler/ Ladbrokes.

The odds are ‘to qualify’ which includes overtime and penalties. According to the ratings, England could just shade it, with the bookies agreeing, while still leaving the door open for a value bet on England at 1.92. Personally I’m not even going to consider betting on this match. There will be enough shouting at the telly as it is. However, for the tracking experiment, it’s England to qualify at 1.92.

2. Argentina vs Mexico

Argentina: 65% Chance -> Value odds: 1.54 -> Best odds 1.25 Paddy Power
Mexico: 35% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86 -> 4.50 Ladbrokes.

The match brings up an interesting value situation according to Castrol’s ratings. Argentina should go through, that much is clear, but going by the ratings, the bookies are over estimating Argentina’s potential domination slightly.

Favourites do have a very good record in the knockout stage though so rather than going for the shock Mexico victory (even though there’s value in it), it might be better to even things up with the handicap bet over 90 minutes. BetInternet go 1.93 on Mexico with the +1 handicap which might be the best way to play the match. This means you get your money back if Argentina win by just 1 goal.

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment

Behind in posting today as the blog admin access was playing silly buggers

Value and % chance according to Castrol:

Uruguay V South Korea
UR: 71% – value 1.40
SK: 29% – value 3.45

Using the to qualify bet (including extra time and pens) it suggests a smidgen of value in Uruguay @ 1.44 Paddys.

In the other game we have USA against Ghana with the ratings pointing towards a clear USA bet.

USA: 60% – value 1.67
Ghana 40% – value 2.5

You can pick up the USA to qualify at 1.84 with Bet Chronicle

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Castrol ratings are on on a hot streak. Luck is going our way with the results, but they’re certainly identifying where the values lies.

1. Paraguay vs New Zealand: NZ +1 handicap @ 2.15. +1.15
2. Slovakia vs Italy: Slovakia/ Draw double chance @ 2.60 . +1.60
3. Denmark vs Japan: Japan @ 3.75 +2.75
4. Cameroon vs Holland: Holland @ 1.83 +0.83

Day total: 6.33 points

Running total for the Castrol ratings: 10.43 points. 12 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for Tuesday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet.

Green means value. Red means no value.

1. Portugal vs Brazil

Portugal: 21% Chance -> Value odds: 4.76 -> Best odds 3.85 Expekt
Draw: 27% Chance -> Value odds: 3.7 -> Best odds 3.14 Pinnacle
Brazil: 52% Chance -> Value odds: 1.92-> Best odds 2.30 Various

Value in Brazil according to Castrol at 2.30.

2. N Korea vs Ivory Coast

N Korea: 9% Chance -> Value odds: 11.11 -> Best odds 9.5
Draw: 17% Chance -> Value odds: 5.89 -> Best odds 5.0 Unibet
Ivory Coast: 74% Chance -> Value odds: 1.35 -> 1.43 Pinnacle

Value in with Ivory Coast according to Pinnacle. The -1 handicap might be the better option at 1.73 with SBO bet.

3. Switzerland vs Honduras

Switzerland: 38% Chance -> Value odds: 2.63 -> Best odds 1.53 various.
Draw: 29% Chance -> Value odds: 3.44 -> Best odds 4.38 Pinnacle.
Honduras: 33% Chance -> Value odds: 3.03 -> 7.71 Pinnacle.

Huge value in Honduras according to Castrol ratings. The Honduras/ Draw Double chance is 2.60 with Unibet, while the +1 handicap is 2.08 with 188 bet. The +1 is probably the safer option, but the 33% chance predicted by Castrol merits the Double Chance at 2.60.

4. Chile vs Spain

Chile: 16% Chance -> Value odds: 6.25 -> Best odds 8.35 Pinnacle
Draw: 25% Chance -> Value odds: 4.00 -> Best odds 4.52 Pinnacle.
Spain: 59% Chance -> Value odds: 1.69 -> Best odds 1.50 Various.

The match should go to Spain, but the value lies with Chile according to Castrol. Chile Draw No Bet is 6.0 with various, Chile/ Draw Double chance pays 2.80 with Unibet. Chile with the +1 Asian Handicap seems the best option at 2.14 with SBObet.

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Castrol ratings have been on good form so far. Near clean sweep today.

1. England vs Slovenia: Slovenia +1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.66. +0.66
2. USA vs Algeria: USA @ 2.06 188bet. +1.06.
3. Australia vs Serbia: Australia/ Draw Double Chance @ 2.04 12bet. +1.04
4. Ghana vs Germany:  Ghana +1 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Pinnacle. Stake refund.

Day total: 2.76

Running total for the Castrol ratings: 4.1 points. 8 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for Tuesday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet.

Green means value. Red means no value.

1. Paraguay vs New Zealand

Paraguay: 64% Chance -> Value odds: 1.56 -> Best odds 1.48 SBObet
Draw: 23% Chance -> Value odds: 4.35 -> Best odds 4.50 Ladbrokes
New Zealand: 13% Chance -> Value odds: 7.70 -> Best odds 9.30 188 bet

Big value with New Zealand and the draw according to Castrol. Can the All blacks/ All whites make it 3 upsets out of three? Well the odds are against it happening again, but going by the ratings, there’s still value in those prices. You can get 2.15 on the +1 handicap with 188 bet (stake refunded if NZ lose by 1 goal). The Draw/ NZ double chance pays 2.88 which would be the value bet. Personally I feel NZ have had their day in the sun, but for the experiment I’ll log the +1 handicap as the bet here at 2.15.

2. Slovakia vs Italy

Slovakia : 20% Chance -> Value odds: 5.0 -> Best odds 7.75 Pinnacle
Draw: 25% Chance -> Value odds: 4.0 -> Best odds 4.39 Pinnacle
Italy: 55% Chance -> Value odds: 1.81 -> Best odds 1.57 Ladbrokes

The underdogs are undervalued again according to Castrol. I’ve no take on this match, but the handicap odds are as follows. The Draw/ Slovakia Double chance is 2.60 with William hill, while Slovakia with the -1 handicap is 2.05 with pinnacle. 45% chance of either a draw or Slovakia according to Castrol ratings, but Double chance odds of 2.60 imply just a 38% chance. The Slovakia Double Chance seems like the value bet.

3. Denmark vs Japan

Denmark: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32 -> Best odds 2.25 Unibet
Draw: 27% Chance -> Value odds: 3.70 -> Best odds 3.44 Pinnacle
Japan: 30% Chance -> Value odds: 3.33 -> Best odds 3.75 VC

Value in Japan at 3.75 with VC bet according to Castrol.

4. Cameroon vs Holland

Cameroon: 11% Chance -> Value odds: 9.0 -> Best odds5.25 Unibet
Draw: 21% Chance -> Value odds: 4.72 -> Best odds 3.25 unibet
Holland: 68% Chance -> Value odds: 1.47 -> Best odds 1.83 various

Big value with Holland here with the bookies implying Holland might take their foot off the gas with their qualification already in the bag. That’s where the value lies according to the ratings though so Holland at 1.83 is the bet for the records.

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Yesterday’s matches produces some good results, though as I mentioned a few possible angles the results would vary. I’ve recorded only the outcomes in line with the Castrol Rating’s value.

1. Mexico vs Uruguay Double Chance (back both Mexico & Uruguay) @ 2.10. +1.10
2. France vs South Africa: Draw. -1.00
3. Greece vs Argentina: Argentina @ 1.64. +0.64
4. Nigeria vs South Korea. Nigeria Double Chance (with draw) @ 1.60. +0.6

Running total for the Castrol ratings: 1.34

The Castrol ratings for Tuesday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet.

Green means value. Red means no value.

1.England vs Slovenia

England: 64% Chance -> Value odds: 1.56 -> Best odds 1.50 (Extrabet)
Draw: 22% Chance -> Value odds: 4.54 -> Best odds 4.53 (Pinnacle Sports)
Slovenia: 14% Chance -> Value odds: 7.15 -> Best odds 9.0 (Slovenia)

Will England implode like France? Not likely according to the Castrol ratings, but these don’t take into account subtle factors such as John Terry being a prize pillock.

The value bet is on Slovenia at 9.0, but as the saying goes, you can’t eat value, so Slovenia with the +1.50 handicap might even things up a bit available at 1.66 with SBO bet. This means Slovenia can lose by up to 1 goal and the bet still wins. Personally I feel the game is a hard one to read and although JT’s ever so brave rebellion has been quashed, there may still be something in the air, so I’d personally swerve this match from a betting perspective, but Slovania looks to be the value bet according to Castrol.

2. USA vs Algeria

USA: 61% Chance -> Value odds: 1.64 -> Best odds 2.06 (188)
Draw: 23% Chance -> Value odds: 4.35 -> Best odds 3.00 (Pinnacle Sports)
Algeria: 16% Chance -> Value odds: 6.25 -> Best odds 4.03 (Pinnacle Sports)

Big value on USA at 2.06 with 188bet according to Castrol’s ratings.

3. Australia vs Serbia

Australia: 27% Chance -> Value odds: 3.70 -> Best odds 4.50 (Skybet)
Draw: 30% Chance -> Value odds: 3.33 -> Best odds 3.70 (Boyle Sports)
Serbia: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32 -> Best odds 1.95 (Bet Chronicle)

Value in Australia and the draw according to the Castrol ratings. Australia Draw No bet pays 3.25 with Blue Square, while the Australia +0.5 Asian handicap (double chance with draw) is 2.04 with 12bet. The latter would be the value bet.

4. Ghana vs Germany

Ghana: 15% Chance -> Value odds: 6.67 -> Best odds 8.17 Pinnacle Sports
Draw: 22% Chance -> Value odds: 4.55 -> Best odds 4.5 (Stan James)
Germany: 63% Chance -> Value odds: 1.59 -> Best odds 1.52 (Unibet)

There’s value in Ghana according to the Castrol ratings, but with just a 15% chance of Ghana winning by Castrol, a handicap might be best even things up. Ghana with the +1 handicap is 2.15 with Pinnacle Sports.

Before the world cup started, there were myriad of predictions put forward from various stats based models. The one that really caught my eye was the Castrol Ratings System which takes into account the overall impact an individual player has on each game. It not only scores players based on the accuracy of the passes, it also grades those scores based on where the pass took place on the field.

The ratings for individual players are then combined to give team ratings, which are then used to give a % chance probability of a certain match outcome.

But are the ratings any good?

Let’s put them to the test….

The Castrol ratings for Tuesday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet.

Green means value. Red means no value.

1. Mexico vs Uruguay

Mexico: 33% Chance -> Value odds: 3.03 -> Best odds 4.1 (Pinnacle)
Draw: 26% Chance -> Value odds: 3.85 -> Best odds 1.84 (Bet Chronicle)
Uruguay: 41% Chance -> Value odds: 2.44 -> Best odds 4.6 (Pinnacle)

If this were a competitive match, Uruguay would stand the best chance of winning according to the ratings, but this isn’t really a competitive match. Both teams need just draw to qualify which is why the draw odds are so low.

Probably one to avoid, but the best bet for an interest going by the ratings might be to back Uruguay with the (0) handicap which returns stakes if there is a draw. Best odds on the (0) handicap are with SBO bet at 2.10. The pure value play would be the Double Chance on Mexico and Uruguay (i.e. a result) Best odds for this are 2.10 with Unibet.

2. France vs South Africa

France: 25% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86-> Best odds 2.38 (188bet)
Draw: 37% Chance -> Value odds: 2.7 -> Best odds 3.4 (Ladbrokes)
South Africa: 28% Chance -> Value odds: 3.57 -> Best odds 3.31 (Pinnacle)

There’s value in the draw according to the Castrol ratings. It could be another funny match with both teams out barring a set of weird results. France should win this given their talent, but the team’s discord makes England’s clear the air talks look like a lover’s tiff. South Africa will be motivated to go out with a bang. Probably one to avoid, but according to the ratings, backing the draw at 3.4 is the value bet.

3. Greece vs Argentina

Greece: 14% Chance -> Value odds: 7.14-> Best odds 6.6(SBO)
Draw: 22% Chance -> Value odds: 4.55 -> Best odds 3.93 (Pinnacle)
Argentina: 64% Chance -> Value odds: 1.56 -> Best odds 1.64 (Pinnacle)

According to the ratings there’s shade of value in Argentina at 1.64. In reality it depends if the tactical genius that is Diego Maradona decides to rest some players.

4. Nigeria vs South Korea

Nigeria: 34% Chance -> Value odds: 2.94-> Best odds 3.07 (Pinnacle)
Draw: 36% Chance -> Value odds: 2.78 -> Best odds 3.93 (Pinnacle)
South Korea: 30% Chance -> Value odds: 3.33 -> Best odds 2.6 (Ladbrokes)

Nigeria are out, but playing for African pride, while South Korea are odds on to qualify. According to Castrol there is value in the draw and Nigeria. A good way to play this would be to cover both value outcomes with a draw no bet, or zero handicap. The best odds on offer for this are with the (0) handicap with SBObet at 2.21, though you can get 2.29 by creating your own DNB from the best win and draw odds.Might also be worth the +0.5 handicap for Nigeria at 1.60.

I’ll try to update and record the ratings for other matches as the tournament goes progresses.

Dan