Castol ratings for the World Cup 23rd June

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Yesterday’s matches produces some good results, though as I mentioned a few possible angles the results would vary. I’ve recorded only the outcomes in line with the Castrol Rating’s value.

1. Mexico vs Uruguay Double Chance (back both Mexico & Uruguay) @ 2.10. +1.10
2. France vs South Africa: Draw. -1.00
3. Greece vs Argentina: Argentina @ 1.64. +0.64
4. Nigeria vs South Korea. Nigeria Double Chance (with draw) @ 1.60. +0.6

Running total for the Castrol ratings: 1.34

The Castrol ratings for Tuesday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet.

Green means value. Red means no value.

1.England vs Slovenia

England: 64% Chance -> Value odds: 1.56 -> Best odds 1.50 (Extrabet)
Draw: 22% Chance -> Value odds: 4.54 -> Best odds 4.53 (Pinnacle Sports)
Slovenia: 14% Chance -> Value odds: 7.15 -> Best odds 9.0 (Slovenia)

Will England implode like France? Not likely according to the Castrol ratings, but these don’t take into account subtle factors such as John Terry being a prize pillock.

The value bet is on Slovenia at 9.0, but as the saying goes, you can’t eat value, so Slovenia with the +1.50 handicap might even things up a bit available at 1.66 with SBO bet. This means Slovenia can lose by up to 1 goal and the bet still wins. Personally I feel the game is a hard one to read and although JT’s ever so brave rebellion has been quashed, there may still be something in the air, so I’d personally swerve this match from a betting perspective, but Slovania looks to be the value bet according to Castrol.

2. USA vs Algeria

USA: 61% Chance -> Value odds: 1.64 -> Best odds 2.06 (188)
Draw: 23% Chance -> Value odds: 4.35 -> Best odds 3.00 (Pinnacle Sports)
Algeria: 16% Chance -> Value odds: 6.25 -> Best odds 4.03 (Pinnacle Sports)

Big value on USA at 2.06 with 188bet according to Castrol’s ratings.

3. Australia vs Serbia

Australia: 27% Chance -> Value odds: 3.70 -> Best odds 4.50 (Skybet)
Draw: 30% Chance -> Value odds: 3.33 -> Best odds 3.70 (Boyle Sports)
Serbia: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32 -> Best odds 1.95 (Bet Chronicle)

Value in Australia and the draw according to the Castrol ratings. Australia Draw No bet pays 3.25 with Blue Square, while the Australia +0.5 Asian handicap (double chance with draw) is 2.04 with 12bet. The latter would be the value bet.

4. Ghana vs Germany

Ghana: 15% Chance -> Value odds: 6.67 -> Best odds 8.17 Pinnacle Sports
Draw: 22% Chance -> Value odds: 4.55 -> Best odds 4.5 (Stan James)
Germany: 63% Chance -> Value odds: 1.59 -> Best odds 1.52 (Unibet)

There’s value in Ghana according to the Castrol ratings, but with just a 15% chance of Ghana winning by Castrol, a handicap might be best even things up. Ghana with the +1 handicap is 2.15 with Pinnacle Sports.