Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:
Castrol ratings have been on good form so far. Near clean sweep today.
1. England vs Slovenia: Slovenia +1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.66. +0.66
2. USA vs Algeria: USA @ 2.06 188bet. +1.06.
3. Australia vs Serbia: Australia/ Draw Double Chance @ 2.04 12bet. +1.04
4. Ghana vs Germany: Ghana +1 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Pinnacle. Stake refund.
Day total: 2.76
Running total for the Castrol ratings: 4.1 points. 8 points staked.
The Castrol ratings for Tuesday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet.
Green means value. Red means no value.
1. Paraguay vs New Zealand
Paraguay: 64% Chance -> Value odds: 1.56 -> Best odds 1.48 SBObet
Draw: 23% Chance -> Value odds: 4.35 -> Best odds 4.50 Ladbrokes
New Zealand: 13% Chance -> Value odds: 7.70 -> Best odds 9.30 188 bet
Big value with New Zealand and the draw according to Castrol. Can the All blacks/ All whites make it 3 upsets out of three? Well the odds are against it happening again, but going by the ratings, there’s still value in those prices. You can get 2.15 on the +1 handicap with 188 bet (stake refunded if NZ lose by 1 goal). The Draw/ NZ double chance pays 2.88 which would be the value bet. Personally I feel NZ have had their day in the sun, but for the experiment I’ll log the +1 handicap as the bet here at 2.15.
2. Slovakia vs Italy
Slovakia : 20% Chance -> Value odds: 5.0 -> Best odds 7.75 Pinnacle
Draw: 25% Chance -> Value odds: 4.0 -> Best odds 4.39 Pinnacle
Italy: 55% Chance -> Value odds: 1.81 -> Best odds 1.57 Ladbrokes
The underdogs are undervalued again according to Castrol. I’ve no take on this match, but the handicap odds are as follows. The Draw/ Slovakia Double chance is 2.60 with William hill, while Slovakia with the -1 handicap is 2.05 with pinnacle. 45% chance of either a draw or Slovakia according to Castrol ratings, but Double chance odds of 2.60 imply just a 38% chance. The Slovakia Double Chance seems like the value bet.
3. Denmark vs Japan
Denmark: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32 -> Best odds 2.25 Unibet
Draw: 27% Chance -> Value odds: 3.70 -> Best odds 3.44 Pinnacle
Japan: 30% Chance -> Value odds: 3.33 -> Best odds 3.75 VC
Value in Japan at 3.75 with VC bet according to Castrol.
4. Cameroon vs Holland
Cameroon: 11% Chance -> Value odds: 9.0 -> Best odds5.25 Unibet
Draw: 21% Chance -> Value odds: 4.72 -> Best odds 3.25 unibet
Holland: 68% Chance -> Value odds: 1.47 -> Best odds 1.83 various
Big value with Holland here with the bookies implying Holland might take their foot off the gas with their qualification already in the bag. That’s where the value lies according to the ratings though so Holland at 1.83 is the bet for the records.