Very often when it comes to betting tipsters or systems there are two different types of results on offer…
1) The results claimed by a tipster
2) The results actually achievable in real-life
Whether it be placing bets late, not having enough betting accounts or missing out on advised prices, any tipster worth its salt must make it practical for those following him in to mirror his profits.
Take our recent analysis of Tom Segal as a prime example. The Racing Post likes to brag about the big winners he sometimes picks out, which is great in concept. Yet its often very difficult to get his advised prices as the bookies slash the advised odds so quickly (and that’s before we discuss them not taking into account rule 4 deductions).
It’s the same for other popular ‘free’ tipsters such as Hugh Taylor and the Pricewise column, both of whom its tough as old boots to get the advised prices for.
Look Away From The Usual Tipster Suspects
Therefore, finding tipsters that 1) have proven results and 2) we can match their results in real-life is a key priority for us here at the Smart Betting Club.
To do this, very often we have to look away from the usual suspects and try uncover some hidden gems and in the latest SBC magazine (out Monday the 23rd) I think we have done just that.
Our feature review this month concerns a racing tipster service we have been proofing since July 2011, who have sent us nearly 4000 emails during this period.
It’s a busy little service with around 20 racing bets each day, all of which are sent through between around 10.30 am and 11.05 am every morning. There is also an evening update sent through 45 minutes before the first race each night, containing more tips.
Their record of proofed bets is outstanding with nearly 374.59% bank growth in 12 months. Check out their official set of results below:
Real-Life Tipster Examination
However…what we wanted to find out for our review, was just how likely we could make these kind of profits ourselves in real-life.
So for two full months between May and July this year, we put the service to the test, by placing each bet and comparing the results the service claimed to what we achieved in real-life betting to get the most likely set of results.
To do this we:
- Recorded our results to the odds we achieved on each bet.
- Removed Best Odds Guaranteed (where the bookies pay a higher price) from any winning bets.
- And then compared with the official service results.
The figures from this test make for fascinating reading:
As you can see, the difference equated to 42.8 less pts profit and a drop in growth of 42.8%, yet still revealed very strong overall profits despite this in real-life.
The majority of this difference was down to removing Best Odds Guarantee terms from any winning bets. Many punters have this applied to all racing bets automatically but not all, so we wanted to work out the absolute worst-case scenario.
So at a minimum, this tipster in the 2 month period would have made 84.9 pts and grown your betting bank by 84.9%. Thats the equivalent of £849 profit on a £1000 betting bank so still represents an excellent set of figures.
Accurate Tipster Results & Reviews
The moral of this article is to always be very careful when judging a tipster’s results. Yes they may claim strong profits, but are they achievable in real-life?
We regularly apply this kind of analysis in our tipster reviews, and the full outline of the racing service featured above can be found in SBC Issue 74, which is out on Monday.
You can gain instant access to this when released, alongside a full back catalogue of tipster reviews, with a Smart Betting Club membership.