# How To Calculate The Value Of Your Bets

How much exactly would you pay for a plain old cup of coffee at Starbucks?

• Nothing, I’ll make may own and I like tea anyway!
• £2.50
• £5.00
• £20.00 (if you bought it from the Olympic Park!)

Unless you’re particularly desperate, most people will choose the first 2 options. We all have similar ideas of the value of a cup of coffee and so do Starbucks.

Charging £20.00 for a cuppa will soon put them out of business, but what exactly has this got to do with betting?

The biggest transition I see in new Smart Betting Club members is when they stop thinking in just terms of what will win and start thinking about value bets.

Every bet offered up by a bookmaker or on Betfair has a chance of winning as even 100/1 shots romp home every now and then. The trick is to be able to have your own price on something, that you can compare to the bookies.

Some take a different approach and say “Well, price doesn’t matter as long as it wins”. However, for me this is nonsense as when it comes to betting… Price is everything.

So to help explain further, today I have a quick guide on just how to price up the value of your bets.

How to Price Up a Bet

A good way to price up a bet is to convert the odds on offer into the implied probability of that bet winning. Implied probability is how often that bet is expected to win given average luck as a percentage.

To work this out take the number 1 and divide it by the decimal odds on offer. Then multiply this by 100 and voila! You have your  implied probability figure.

For example Usain Bolt is currently a best priced 8/11 to win the men’s 100m final at London 2012.

8/11 is written as 1.73 in decimal odds.
1 divided by 1.73 is 0.578
X 100 = 57.80%.

So a bet priced at 8/11 should win roughly 57.80% of the time.  Or expressed another way, the bookies think Usain Bolt will take gold 5.78 times out of 10.

Percentage Chance of Winning

The second part of value is to come up with your prediction of its chances of winning. Going back to our Usain Bolt bet,  if we think there is an actual chance of him winning greater than 57.80%, then we have a value bet.

Lets pretend I’m a men’s running expert, and after weighing up all the contenders, I rate Bolt’s chance of victory at 70%.

To convert 70% back into odds, you divide 100 by 70 = 1.43.

So with our Usain Bolt bet, we are betting on what I think should be a 1.43 shot and getting odds of 1.73. Doesn’t mean it will win, but take 100 bets like that and you will make money.

Naturally this assumes your estimation is more accurate than the bookmakers which is easier said than done.