You can find some background on this test here.
Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.
This week’s bets:
Not a bad week last week with Everton & Newcastle nice value picks. Stoke beating Arsenal was the icing on the cake. Season’s total stands at new equity high of 40.22, with an ROI of 14%. Not bad at all.
Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.
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