You can find some background on this test here.
Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.
Update:
It was a storming weekend for the Fink tank ratings, picking up Villa, Spurs and Fulham to win away. The season’s total now stands at 52 points with an ROI of 17%. Not bad at all!
This weeks:
Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The ratings have thrown up some big value in certain games this weekend, but they are probably best taken with a pinch of salt with a very different United team likely to run out against Blackpool.
For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Smart Betting Club could help you.