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Champions League Value Bets: A tough evening ahead for English teams

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, but there just haven’t been enough major upsets.
Bets: 73
Profit/ loss: -21 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Chelsea vs Valencia: Chelsea 53.3% chance. No value with Chelsea.
  • Olympiakos vs Arsenal: Arsenal 47% chance. Value with Arsenal.
  • Basel v Man U: Man U 61.2% chance. No value with Man U.
  • Man City vs Bayern Munich: Man City 46.3% chance. No value with Man City.
The English clubs should be around evens, but there’s little value on offer.

Here are all the games:



Likely to be some funky value levels tonight due to some sides fielding weaker teams.

NB bets like Olympiakos & Draw mean the ratings find value in both the draw and the away side so both are backed using a bookmaker’s Double Chance. If a game is missing it means there is no value in any proposition.

Bet Ideas:

You can follow the value bets blindly or use them to inform your own betting. For example, Otelul are big value against United, but if the match were played 1000 times, they’d still only win a handful of times. Therefore you might want to pick and choose or use Asian Handicaps to level the playing field.

With this in mind, here are some of the bets that caught our eye:

  • Don’t fancy much tonight with some teams already through/ not through.
  • Chelsea vs Valencia: Valencia +0.75 @ 2.02 Ladbrokes.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Smart Betting Club. 

 

Sportsman Racing: Imperious Big Bucks Cashes In

Posted on by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

Carruthers provided a success for the underdog and horse racing itself when he bounced back to form to win the Hennessy Gold Cup. From the small Mark Bradstock yard, ridden by journeyman jockey Mattie Batchelor and owned by the Oaskseys who have done so much for the Injured Jockey Fund this was an inspiring success. Fitted with a tongue-tie for the first time the eight-year-old front-running Carruthers made a few early jumping errors (matched at 55 on Betfair) before settling into a rhythm and running on strongly to win by three-and-a-quarter lengths. Last season Carruthers was riddled with a virus but it was only two seasons ago the horse was fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Welsh National on December 27th may be his next aim. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Great Expectations In Hennessy

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott provides us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – including the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

Saturday witnesses one of the best races in the National Hunt calendar, The Hennessy Gold Cup over three-mile-two-furlongs at Haydock while at Newcastle the Fighting Fifth pays welcome to the return of Nicky Henderson’s Binocular.

Other equine stars running at the weekend are Big Bucks in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury and Peddlers Cross in a novice chase at Bangor though short prices will be the order of the day for those two.

Aiteenthirtythree with Ruby Walsh on board is shading market favouritism for the Hennessy at 11-2 in front of Great Endeavour and Wymott. The Hennessy has been a long term aim for Paul Nicholls’ charge and the Master of Ditcheat has a fine record in the race having won the event three times in the last ten years. Aiteenthirtythree has a great record at the Newbury track, successful on the last two occasions he has run there and will love the strong pace. Pin-fired after his final outing last term the concern at the price on offer is the seven-year-old has largely been winning in small fields and this race will be a different kettle of fish with eighteen horses set to go to post.

Second favourite is David Pipe’s Great Endeavour at 13-2. The seven-year-old gelding has taken rank as one of the top two and a half mile chasers following his win in the Paddy Power. The question is will he last home with his trainer himself saying “3m 2f might be a bit far”. The speed he showed in the aforementioned Paddy Power at Cheltenham is a worry over the longer distance yet his best run over hurdles came over the 3m 2f trip at Cheltenham in 2009 when third in a Listed event. I’m inclined to risk Great Endeavour having the engine to last out stamina wise and back him to obtain the big-race double. Continue reading →

Champions League Value Bets: Small Value In Man U Home Win.

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, but there just haven’t been enough major upsets.
Bets: 59
Profit/ loss: -25.34 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Man U vs Benfica: Man U 67.4% chance. Value with Man U.
  • Napoli vs Man City: Man City 45.6% chance. No value with Man City.
  • Arsenal vs Dortmund: Arsenal 45.2% chance. No value with Arsenal.
  • Bayer Leverkusen vs Chelsea: Chelsea 42.3% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings.

Here are all the games:

NB bets like Olympiakos & Draw mean the ratings find value in both the draw and the away side so both are backed using a bookmaker’s Double Chance. If a game is missing it means there is no value in any proposition.

Bet Ideas:

You can follow the value bets blindly or use them to inform your own betting. For example, Otelul are big value against United, but if the match were played 1000 times, they’d still only win a handful of times. Therefore you might want to pick and choose or use Asian Handicaps to level the playing field.

With this in mind, here are some of the bets that caught our eye:

  • Moscow Home Win @ 2.41 Pinnacle.
  • Otelul home (+0.25 handiap) @ 2.56 Pinnacle sports.
  • Apoel away (+1) @ 2.16 Pinnacle sports.
  • Bayer Leverkusen home (0) @ 2.53 Pinnacle sports.
  • Olympiakos away (+0.5) @ +2.42 SBO bet.
  • Real Madrid home (-2.75) @ 2.05 SBO bet.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Smart Betting Club. 

 

Sportsman Racing: Resurgent Star Too Short For King George

Posted on by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

For six minutes on Saturday race-fans were able to forget whip rules, lack of prize money and corruption charges as the imperious Kauto Star warmed the hearts of all who watched him triumph in the Betfair Chase. One of the sport’s greatest ever chasers, Kauto jumped magnificently before kicking for home to readily dismiss the challenges of Diamond Harry, Weird Al and Long Run to triumph by eight-lengths. The National Hunt trainers champion Paul Nicholls simply said “This is my proudest-ever moment”. Kauto Star has been cut to 11-2 from 16-1 for the King George VI Chase. That price is not for me though as it’s hard to see him taking part in five weeks time after such a strenuous effort here and he goes best when fresh. Long Run made a few jumping errors when finishing second, running 12lb below his best but will improve for his seasonal outing. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: In It For The Long Run

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott provides us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – including the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

The £200,000 Betfair Chase is the feature race of a superb Saturday’s racing with this year’s renewal being well up to scratch hosting four of the first seven in the betting for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

There can be little argument that the best horse coming into the race is the 5-6 favourite Long Run. Nicky Henderson’s stable star is officially rated a mammoth 182 and has 11lb in hand, despite opposing four formidable rivals in a field of six. Still a youngster he has achieved so much already, dismantling the Cheltenham Gold Cup field by seven lengths, breaking the course record in the process and becoming the first six-year-old to win the race since Mill House in 1963. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Wishfull Thinking For Punters at Cheltenham

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott provides us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – including the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

It’s a cracker of a weekend with plenty of big names to enjoy, and Scott highlights his best value for 2 of the big races – the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial. He expects big things of Wishfull Thinking at 15/2 in the former, whilst Paul Nicholls runner ‘Hinterland’ is expected to make an impact in the latter. Also keep an eye out for Chicago Grey to take the 3m, 3f Handicap Chase and Fingal Bay in Saturday’s Grade 2 Novice Hurdle.

Racing has returned to Cheltenham with the three-day Open meeting and with it brings many big names from the jumping sphere to savour. On Saturday, jumping action also comes from Wincanton and Uttoxeter, whilst Lingfield hosts a fine card with two Listed races but the key meeting is of course at the home of the National Hunt.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is invariably one of the best-quality handicaps of the season and this year’s renewal is another cracker. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Roque Threat To Long Run Double

Posted on by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

The flat season wound up with the International Breeders Cup proving very difficult to fathom with the Breeders Cup Mile won by the rag Court Vision at 66-1. Worry not as the jumping sphere takes over now and I’m like a kid at Christmas with the big guns starting to emerge from hibernation.

On Saturday Quito De La Roque laid down a threat to Long Run’s Gold Cup double aspirations with a gutsy one-and-a-quarter length triumph over Sizing Europe in the Down Royal Champion Chase.

Bostons Angel and Quito De La Roque – two of the most successful staying novice chasers in Ireland met in the Grade 1 Fort Leney Novices’ Chase at Leopardstown last December with honours going to Bostons Angel. The form of the whole season however suggests Quito De La Roque is the superior horse. Having thrashed Bostons Angel over hurdles in 2009/10 Quito De La Roque made a jumping error at the second last in the Fort Leney but unperturbed he stayed on strongly to lose by only three-quarters of a length. If Quito De La Roque had run in the RSA Chase last season I think he may have won it and it should pay to follow this strong stayer over the coming months. The Gold Cup where Quite De La Roque has been cut to 20-1 looks to be tilting at windmills in terms of troubling Long Run but if connections set their sights lower he can put up a bold show at the Festival. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: One Last Hurrah For Goldikova?

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott provides us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – including the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

The Breeders Cup Stateside spectacular is the highlight of the weekend’s racing while in the UK there is a decent flat card at Doncaster including the November Handicap and some fine chasers and hurdlers make their seasonal outings at Wincanton.

The Breeders Cup Mile is the headline race of the weekend and the European horses head to Churchill Downs with a decent record of 19% wins from all runners at the track. The exceptional mare Goldikova will be hoping to say her farewell’s to a reverent public with a massive win and I believe she can. Successful on all three previous races in the Breeders Cup she loves this track and the manner of Stateside racing. Continue reading →

Champions league value bets: Man City over priced at Villarreal

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, the ratings haven’t landed any major shocks.
Bets: 45
Profit/ loss: -17.75 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Villarreal vs Man City: Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
  • Man U vs Otelul: Man U 87.2% chance. No value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Marseille: Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Genk vs Chelsea: Chelsea 71% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings. Continue reading →