In this article, the analysts at the Smart Betting Club delve into the stats to unearth the top five Grand National 2012 tips for finding a winner in the big race.
When statisticians compile details of the nation’s betting habits, there are two things that regularly come top of the list.
1) The National Lottery.
2) The Grand National.
With the Grand National going off with around 40 runners, many people believe they are both effectively lotteries! However, unlike the random balls of the lottery, there are some patterns in the National over the years that might help you earn some bragging rights in the office come Monday morning. If you don’t bag the winner, there is still the potential for some tasty each way payouts.
For more top Grand National 2012 tips including bets from expert tipsters, make sure you check out the FREE SBC Grand National 2012 tips package.
First, let’s have a look at what we’re up against and how to level the playing field….
Grand National 2012 Betting Tip: Shop around for the best price.
Shopping around for the best price might seem a little obvious and if this is old news to you, feel free to skip to tip #1 on finding the winner. Most people are now wise to the idea of shopping around for the best prices…except when it comes to betting. Shopping around for the best odds won’t help you find the winner, what it’s likely to do is massively increase your returns if you do get lucky.
Use Betfair For Win Only Betting.
Betfair is a betting exchange that allows punters to play as the bookmaker or the punter. The upshot is that prices are generally much better than bookie prices.
Since 1997, backing every runner in the National would have resulting in big losses – Surprise, surprise. Were you to back all the horses to win with Betfair (estimated prices prior to 2008), you would have lost 21.26% Return On Investment (ROI), -£21.26 for every £100 wagered. That’s a loss as you might expect, but it’s miles better than returns from the bookmaker’s Starting Price (SP). Backing all runners to bookie starting prices would have resulted in a staggering loss of -44.69% ROI -£44.69 from every £100 staked. No wonder the bookie’s love the national, their margins are huge!
If looking to back win only, then using Betfair can certainly give you an advantage over other punters. You can get a £25 free bet via this link.
The Best Of The Bookies For Each Way Betting
Betting win only or ‘on the nose’ is a brave way to play the National. Most punters quite rightly prefer the comfort of an Each Way Bet. For complete beginners, an Each Way bet is effectively two bets; a bet on the horse winning and a bet on the horse placing (1st to 4th usually). Without going too much into the detail, if betting Each Way, then a bookmaker could offer you better value on the place part of the bet.
In the days leading up to the National, bookies will be falling over themselves to attract your business. An Each Way bet on the National usually pays out for a horse finishing 1st to 4th, but it’s not unusual to see bonus offers to pay out for five or even six places! Keep your eye out for the best odds and special offers via odds comparison sites such as OddsChecker.com
Bet Butler: For The Best Odds In One Place
One firm you won’t find on Odds Comparison sites is Bet Butler. Part odds comparison, part bookmaker, part bet agency, Bet Butler aims to be a one stop shop for your betting. It scours the bookies to bring you the best odds without you having to shop around. Check out Bet Butler here.
Now we know where to bet, let’s have a look at how you can level the playing field a little with our first top tip.
Grand National 2012 Tip #1: The Right Age
The Grand National isn’t just about speed, if it were, the race would be more of a young horse’s game. It takes years for a horse to develop the stamina and technique required to handle those monstrous fences over the distance.
There is a definite sweet spot when it comes to the right age for the National. Too young and the horses may not be ready. Too old and the horse might not have the legs.
The table below shows the distribution of winners and betting returns for horses over various ages going back to 1997.
Twelve of the last fifteen winners have been aged either 9 or 10. Not only this, but backing all horses within these age brackets blindly would have been enough to make you a profit to Betfair prices!
It’s not to say that a six year old can’t win the national, but going by past results, it is less likely.
Summary – Grand National 2012 Tip #1: Focus on 9 and 10 year olds.
If you want more tips like this, including bets that expert tipsters are following, make sure you download our FREE Grand National 2012 Tips Pack. This pack will also highlight all the horses currently meeting the criteria for the top five tips.
Our expert Grand National 2012 Tips Profit Pack will be published for free on Wednesday 11th April.
To pre-register to receive your exclusive free copy sent to your email address as soon as released, simply fill in the form at http://www.grand-national-tips-2012.com/
Part two coming soon will reveal our second Grand National 2012 tip: Why you should focus on favourites.
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