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Mikes Football Bets

Posted on by Mike

As the Premier League doesn’t kick-off until next week, I am going to start-off by rounding up my pre-season ante post bets.

In my Weekend Wager column over the past few weeks I have already shared one ante post bet that I like on Stoke to finish in the top half of the table. They have a settled team and lots of under-rated players so the 7/2 on them with Paddy Power and Blue Square appeals.

Another bet previously mentioned is West Brom to be the top newcomer this season at 9/4 with Ladbrokes, who also go best price 4/1 on Newcastle to go straight back down. The top flight will be a lot tougher this year and with Mike Ashley in charge, they are never likely to be far from trouble. I was very tempted by this bet but instead have taken the 3/4 on arch rivals Sunderland to finish above them with Bwin. They are a settled team with a top goalscorer in Darren Bent and a top ten finish won’t be beyond them.

My final bet for the season is on likely whipping boys Blackpool who are 11/8 with VCBet to concede the most amount of goals this season. Considering how manager Ian Holloway loves his teams to attack, they can expect to be on the end of a few good hidings this season like Burnley last year. At the very least we can expect some cracking post-game interviews from ‘Olly’ – check-out these classics from Youtube… Not the best lookin bird, ranting and raving, and my fave – reacting to news his then Plymouth team are playing Real Madrid.

My pre-season bets
0.5 pt Stoke to finish in top half of table. 7/2 Ladbrokes
0.5 pt West Brom top newcomer 9/4 Ladbrokes
1 pt Sunderland to finish above Newcastle 3/4 Bwin
1 pt Blackpool to concede most goals this season 11/8 VCbet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike's Football Bets This Season

Posted on by Mike

With the Premier League football season just under a week and a half away, it’s time for my football bets to return after the success enjoyed last year.

Last season from October onward I posted my best football bets up at my free Betting Prophet blog and began keeping a full record. These bets were all based upon the advice I highlighted in my ‘next week in football betting’ column in the free Weekend Wager email sent every Friday (enter your email address at the top of this page to pick it up). I also selected regular bets for midweek games as well, which all went up at the blog.

By the end of the season the Premier League focused best bets (my speciality) had returned a profit of 10.66 pts from 64 bets and a total of 78.5 pts staked. The return on investment level was 13.58%. Check out the profit graph from last season below

Along with my main football bets I also began to highlight my next-best ‘shortlist’ selections. These were those bets that don’t quite make the grade for a main selection but I do think offer value.  Only 7 bets via this so far, losing 0.64 pts from 7 pts staked.

This Season’s Target

In the 2010/11 season my aim is to continue to expand upon this and see what kind of profit or loss level I may actually generate over a more substantial number of bets. Whilst the 10.66 pts obtained since October 09 is decent, I want to judge this over a larger number of bets.

Hopefully I can also provide some ‘against the grain’ style betting commentary and suggest a few good angles to take if nothing else.

I will be backing each bet to small stakes myself as I always like to track any such method with my own money. However I wouldn’t advise those of you following do so with anything more than similarly small stakes.

Asian Handicap Focus

The vast majority of my bets are all based around Asian Handicap betting, which is quickly becoming one of the most popular ways to bet on football. One of the reasons for this is that the bookmakers margins for these bets are smaller, meaning in principle it’s easier to make a profit.

Don’t be put off either by the name or some of the terms it uses such as 0.25 or -0.5 – It is actually quite simple to follow once you get a grasp of it.  If you have yet to consider Asian Handicap betting, let me encourage you to do so this year – you can read an explanation of what it is and how it works at the following websites:

Wikipedia
Beat The Bookies
SBOBet

Other bet types supplied will be on the outright win and also the under/over goals market.

Next Up

Over the next few weeks I will begin to blog and share my football bets for the coming season, starting with a look at my advice in the Ante-post market.

Bet numbers may be relatively low at the start of the season as I want to see how each team approaches things this year. With the transfer window at the end of August this can also throw things a little. Once the season is up and running properly and things have settled down, expect regular bets from me.

All bets will be posted up at this blog so keep an eye out for my advice whenever there are Premier League fixtures looming.

Mike’s Football Bets This Season

Posted on by Mike

With the Premier League football season just under a week and a half away, it’s time for my football bets to return after the success enjoyed last year.

Last season from October onward I posted my best football bets up at my free Betting Prophet blog and began keeping a full record. These bets were all based upon the advice I highlighted in my ‘next week in football betting’ column in the free Weekend Wager email sent every Friday (enter your email address at the top of this page to pick it up). I also selected regular bets for midweek games as well, which all went up at the blog.

By the end of the season the Premier League focused best bets (my speciality) had returned a profit of 10.66 pts from 64 bets and a total of 78.5 pts staked. The return on investment level was 13.58%. Check out the profit graph from last season below

Along with my main football bets I also began to highlight my next-best ‘shortlist’ selections. These were those bets that don’t quite make the grade for a main selection but I do think offer value.  Only 7 bets via this so far, losing 0.64 pts from 7 pts staked.

This Season’s Target

In the 2010/11 season my aim is to continue to expand upon this and see what kind of profit or loss level I may actually generate over a more substantial number of bets. Whilst the 10.66 pts obtained since October 09 is decent, I want to judge this over a larger number of bets.

Hopefully I can also provide some ‘against the grain’ style betting commentary and suggest a few good angles to take if nothing else.

I will be backing each bet to small stakes myself as I always like to track any such method with my own money. However I wouldn’t advise those of you following do so with anything more than similarly small stakes.

Asian Handicap Focus

The vast majority of my bets are all based around Asian Handicap betting, which is quickly becoming one of the most popular ways to bet on football. One of the reasons for this is that the bookmakers margins for these bets are smaller, meaning in principle it’s easier to make a profit.

Don’t be put off either by the name or some of the terms it uses such as 0.25 or -0.5 – It is actually quite simple to follow once you get a grasp of it.  If you have yet to consider Asian Handicap betting, let me encourage you to do so this year – you can read an explanation of what it is and how it works at the following websites:

Wikipedia
Beat The Bookies
SBOBet

Other bet types supplied will be on the outright win and also the under/over goals market.

Next Up

Over the next few weeks I will begin to blog and share my football bets for the coming season, starting with a look at my advice in the Ante-post market.

Bet numbers may be relatively low at the start of the season as I want to see how each team approaches things this year. With the transfer window at the end of August this can also throw things a little. Once the season is up and running properly and things have settled down, expect regular bets from me.

All bets will be posted up at this blog so keep an eye out for my advice whenever there are Premier League fixtures looming.

World Cup & Castrol Ratings Roundup

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Germany. 0.5 points Uruguay +0.75 @ 1.94 & 0.5 points on Germany to score over 1.75 goals @ 2.01. +0.26

2. Holland vs Spain: Holland: Holland to win world cup at 2.60. -1 A loss, but a great value call considering how the match was played out.

Final total: +10.49 points from 32 points staked. A 33% profit on turnover.

Overall I think the Castrol ratings did a very good job of spotting when the bookmakers had over egged a certain team. I’ll certainly be keeping my eye on the ratings for the coming season.

Smart Betting Club world cup guide

Before the world cup we put out our betting guide, drawing tips and expertise from many of the tipsters we track in our monthly magazine.

It’s interesting to read this with the benefit of hindsight and you can do this here: https://smartbettingclub.com/SBCWorldCupSpecial.pdf

Some of the experts picked out a few good trading opportunities with Holland and Germany both available above 10/1 before the first ball was kicked. Matt Nesbitt got the top scorer almost right in David Villa and spotted some value in Germany’s Klose at 33/1.

Overall, it was a tricky World Cup with lots of strange results, especially in the group stages, such as Italy and England drawing with New Zealand and Algeria. In the knockout round it became a bit easier but still well done if you managed to finish with a profit. Whatever you made, it wont be a patch on the £2.5 Billion profit that FIFA has estimated to have pocketed!

We also ran a world cup competition for all SBC members, with the eventual winner correctly picking out Ghana & Uruguay as Quarter-finalists, Holland to make the final as well as Diego Forlan each way in the Golden Boot. He ended up making 31.35 pts profit from just 18 pts staked, which is great tipping!

New Season Around The Corner

One of the problems of betting on a short tournament such as the World Cup is the fact it only runs for 4 weeks and can throw up some strange results. Over the course of a full football season, luck evens itself out and form settles down, making it easier to profit from long-term.

The good news is that the new season is only a few weeks away and we will be back in touch closer to its start with details on how to make money football betting.

World Cup & Castrol Ratings Roundup

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Germany. 0.5 points Uruguay +0.75 @ 1.94 & 0.5 points on Germany to score over 1.75 goals @ 2.01. +0.26

2. Holland vs Spain: Holland: Holland to win world cup at 2.60. -1 A loss, but a great value call considering how the match was played out.

Final total: +10.49 points from 32 points staked. A 33% profit on turnover.

Overall I think the Castrol ratings did a very good job of spotting when the bookmakers had over egged a certain team. I’ll certainly be keeping my eye on the ratings for the coming season.

Smart Betting Club world cup guide

Before the world cup we put out our betting guide, drawing tips and expertise from many of the tipsters we track in our monthly magazine.

It’s interesting to read this with the benefit of hindsight and you can do this here: https://smartbettingclub.com/SBCWorldCupSpecial.pdf

Some of the experts picked out a few good trading opportunities with Holland and Germany both available above 10/1 before the first ball was kicked. Matt Nesbitt got the top scorer almost right in David Villa and spotted some value in Germany’s Klose at 33/1.

Overall, it was a tricky World Cup with lots of strange results, especially in the group stages, such as Italy and England drawing with New Zealand and Algeria. In the knockout round it became a bit easier but still well done if you managed to finish with a profit. Whatever you made, it wont be a patch on the £2.5 Billion profit that FIFA has estimated to have pocketed!

We also ran a world cup competition for all SBC members, with the eventual winner correctly picking out Ghana & Uruguay as Quarter-finalists, Holland to make the final as well as Diego Forlan each way in the Golden Boot. He ended up making 31.35 pts profit from just 18 pts staked, which is great tipping!

New Season Around The Corner

One of the problems of betting on a short tournament such as the World Cup is the fact it only runs for 4 weeks and can throw up some strange results. Over the course of a full football season, luck evens itself out and form settles down, making it easier to profit from long-term.

The good news is that the new season is only a few weeks away and we will be back in touch closer to its start with details on how to make money football betting.

Castrol ratings for the final & playoff

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Holland: 0.5 pt Uruguay +0.75 handicap & 0.5 pt Holland to score over 1.5 goals. +0.265
2. Spain vs Germany: Spain to qualify @ 1.89. +0.89

Castrol was absolutely spot on with the Spain game. The ratings picked out that Spain had the better players which out ranked Germany’s recent form. This match was a real test for the ratings and it came up trumps.

Running total: +11.23 points from 30 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

Third/ Fourth Place Play Off.

1. Uruguay vs Germany

Uruguay: 38% Chance -> Value odds: 2.63 -> Best odds 3.4
Germany: 62% Chance -> Value odds: 1.61-> Best odds 1.4

The Germans should win this, but the betting markets are underestimating the Uruguayans a touch with the best odds on Uruguay implying a 29% chance vs the 38% predicted by Castrol. I think it would be prudent to hedge bets again and back Uruguay with the +0.75 handicap at 1.94 with various bookies for 0.5 points and cover the Germany dominance with a bet on Germany to score over 1.75 goals (over 1.5 and over 2.0 goals) at 2.01 for 0.5 pt which is the dominant over/ under team goal line at Pinnacle sports.

The Final

1. Holland vs Spain

Holland: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32-> Best odds 2.60
Spain: 57% Chance -> Value odds: 1.75 -> Best odds 1.57

Spain to win says Castrol, but they make it a much closer match than the bookies odds at the moment. Not a huge amount of juice in the 2.60 price though with those odds implying a 38.5% chance vs Castrol’s 43% chance.

The Double chance on Holland (the +0.5 handicap) pays 1.80 with 12 bet and the Draw No Bet is 2.63 with Bet Chronicle.

Holland to Win at 2.60 with Centre bet is the value bet for the final, but I’m not betting on this personally. Quite tempted by Holland to score over o.5 and 1 goals (over 0.75 goals) with Pinnacle though.

Castrol ratings for the final & playoff

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Holland: 0.5 pt Uruguay +0.75 handicap & 0.5 pt Holland to score over 1.5 goals. +0.265
2. Spain vs Germany: Spain to qualify @ 1.89. +0.89

Castrol was absolutely spot on with the Spain game. The ratings picked out that Spain had the better players which out ranked Germany’s recent form. This match was a real test for the ratings and it came up trumps.

Running total: +11.23 points from 30 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

Third/ Fourth Place Play Off.

1. Uruguay vs Germany

Uruguay: 38% Chance -> Value odds: 2.63 -> Best odds 3.4
Germany: 62% Chance -> Value odds: 1.61-> Best odds 1.4

The Germans should win this, but the betting markets are underestimating the Uruguayans a touch with the best odds on Uruguay implying a 29% chance vs the 38% predicted by Castrol. I think it would be prudent to hedge bets again and back Uruguay with the +0.75 handicap at 1.94 with various bookies for 0.5 points and cover the Germany dominance with a bet on Germany to score over 1.75 goals (over 1.5 and over 2.0 goals) at 2.01 for 0.5 pt which is the dominant over/ under team goal line at Pinnacle sports.

The Final

1. Holland vs Spain

Holland: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32-> Best odds 2.60
Spain: 57% Chance -> Value odds: 1.75 -> Best odds 1.57

Spain to win says Castrol, but they make it a much closer match than the bookies odds at the moment. Not a huge amount of juice in the 2.60 price though with those odds implying a 38.5% chance vs Castrol’s 43% chance.

The Double chance on Holland (the +0.5 handicap) pays 1.80 with 12 bet and the Draw No Bet is 2.63 with Bet Chronicle.

Holland to Win at 2.60 with Centre bet is the value bet for the final, but I’m not betting on this personally. Quite tempted by Holland to score over o.5 and 1 goals (over 0.75 goals) with Pinnacle though.

Castrol Ratings for the Semi Final

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Argentina vs Germany. Germany Draw No Bet @ 2.37 Bet Chronicle. +1.37.
2. Paraguay vs Spain: Paraguay +1 @ 2.03. Refund.

Excellent value calls on Germany and Paraguay inferred by the Castrol ratings.

Running total: +10.07 points from 28 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Uruguay vs Holland 

Uruguay: 35% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86-> Best odds 3.9 Pinnacle Sports
Holland: 65% Chance -> Value odds: 1.54-> Best odds 1.31 Bet Chronicle.

Holland should win this according to Castrol, but according to the ratings, the bookies are over estimating the Dutch and underestimating the Uruguayans. Although there’s value in it, I don’t fancy Uruguay to qualify. The +0.75 handicap pays 2.06. which is more likely over 90 minutes. I’m going to put half a point on that and cover a Holland walkover by backing Holland to score over 1.5 goals @ 2.03 with Pinnacle Sports for the other half point.

2. Spain vs Germany

Spain: 60% Chance -> Value odds: 1.67-> Best odds 1.89 Bet Chronicle.
Germany: 40% Chance -> Value odds: 2.5-> Best odds 2.04 188 bet.

I was quite surprised when I saw the ratings for this match, although four out of the top rated players are Spanish. The value bet is on Spain at 1.89 with Bet Chronicle. This will certainly be a good test for the ratings. The Germans have the better form, but according to the ratings, the Spanish have the better players. Should be a fascinating match.

Castrol ratings for July 3rd

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Holland vs Slovakia: Holland -1: Refund
2. Brazil vs Chile: Brazil -1. -1.
3. Paraguay vs Japan: Japan to qualify @ 2.65. -1, but great value bet.
4. Spain vs Portugal. No bet
5. Holland vs Brazil. Holland +0.5 1.98 SBObet +0.98. Excellent value call by Castrol ratings.
6. Uruguay vs Ghana: Uruguay to qualify @ 1.53. +0.53. Although a winning bet, Ghana clearly deserved to win this and I feel the ratings were way out here.

Running total: +8.7 points from 26 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for Saturday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Argentina vs Germany

Argentina : 52% Chance -> Value odds: 1.92-> Best odds 1.74 188 bet
Germany: 48% Chance -> Value odds: 2.08-> Best odds 2.25 Stan James

Argentina to shade it according to Castrol, but it could be a closer match than the odds compilers are pricing up. Germany’s best odds of 2.25 imply a 44% chance vs the 48% chance predicted by Castrol. Is that enough of an edge?

Germany +0.5 is 1.82 with SBObet and Germany Draw no bet is 2.37 with Bet Chronicle. The Draw No Bet seems to offer the best odds so that will go down as the value bet.

2. Paraguay vs Spain

Paraguay: 33% Chance -> Value odds: 3.03-> Best odds 5.30 Bet Chronicle
Spain: 76% Chance -> Value odds: 1.31-> Best odds 1.21 Blue Sq.

No value in Spain at 1.21 according to Castrol ratings. The Paraguay +1 handicap is 2.03 seems more likely than Paraguay qualifying so that’s the value bet here.

Castrol ratings for July 2nd

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

A bit late in posting these, but luckily I wrote down the ratings and odds the other day.

The Castrol ratings for Friday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Holland vs Brazil

Holland: 44% Chance -> Value odds: 2.27-> Best odds 2.70 Blue Sq
Brazil: 56% Chance -> Value odds: 1.79-> Best odds 1.53 Stan James.

Castrol give Holland just a 44% chance of winning, but that’s the value bet with the best odds of 2.70 implying just a 37% chance. Certainly little value in backing Brazil at 1.53. For this match I prefer the Holland +0.5 Handicap at 1.98 with SBObet.

2. Uruguay vs Ghana

Uruguay : 73% Chance -> Value odds: 1.37-> Best odds 1.53 Stan James
Ghana: 27% Chance -> Value odds: 3.70-> Best odds 2.63

The bookmakers rightly favour Uruguay according to Castrol, but are being too generous with the odds on Uruguay. Uruguay to qualify at 1.53 is the value bet.