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World Cup & Castrol Ratings Roundup

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Germany. 0.5 points Uruguay +0.75 @ 1.94 & 0.5 points on Germany to score over 1.75 goals @ 2.01. +0.26

2. Holland vs Spain: Holland: Holland to win world cup at 2.60. -1 A loss, but a great value call considering how the match was played out.

Final total: +10.49 points from 32 points staked. A 33% profit on turnover.

Overall I think the Castrol ratings did a very good job of spotting when the bookmakers had over egged a certain team. I’ll certainly be keeping my eye on the ratings for the coming season.

Smart Betting Club world cup guide

Before the world cup we put out our betting guide, drawing tips and expertise from many of the tipsters we track in our monthly magazine.

It’s interesting to read this with the benefit of hindsight and you can do this here: https://smartbettingclub.com/SBCWorldCupSpecial.pdf

Some of the experts picked out a few good trading opportunities with Holland and Germany both available above 10/1 before the first ball was kicked. Matt Nesbitt got the top scorer almost right in David Villa and spotted some value in Germany’s Klose at 33/1.

Overall, it was a tricky World Cup with lots of strange results, especially in the group stages, such as Italy and England drawing with New Zealand and Algeria. In the knockout round it became a bit easier but still well done if you managed to finish with a profit. Whatever you made, it wont be a patch on the £2.5 Billion profit that FIFA has estimated to have pocketed!

We also ran a world cup competition for all SBC members, with the eventual winner correctly picking out Ghana & Uruguay as Quarter-finalists, Holland to make the final as well as Diego Forlan each way in the Golden Boot. He ended up making 31.35 pts profit from just 18 pts staked, which is great tipping!

New Season Around The Corner

One of the problems of betting on a short tournament such as the World Cup is the fact it only runs for 4 weeks and can throw up some strange results. Over the course of a full football season, luck evens itself out and form settles down, making it easier to profit from long-term.

The good news is that the new season is only a few weeks away and we will be back in touch closer to its start with details on how to make money football betting.

World Cup & Castrol Ratings Roundup

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Germany. 0.5 points Uruguay +0.75 @ 1.94 & 0.5 points on Germany to score over 1.75 goals @ 2.01. +0.26

2. Holland vs Spain: Holland: Holland to win world cup at 2.60. -1 A loss, but a great value call considering how the match was played out.

Final total: +10.49 points from 32 points staked. A 33% profit on turnover.

Overall I think the Castrol ratings did a very good job of spotting when the bookmakers had over egged a certain team. I’ll certainly be keeping my eye on the ratings for the coming season.

Smart Betting Club world cup guide

Before the world cup we put out our betting guide, drawing tips and expertise from many of the tipsters we track in our monthly magazine.

It’s interesting to read this with the benefit of hindsight and you can do this here: https://smartbettingclub.com/SBCWorldCupSpecial.pdf

Some of the experts picked out a few good trading opportunities with Holland and Germany both available above 10/1 before the first ball was kicked. Matt Nesbitt got the top scorer almost right in David Villa and spotted some value in Germany’s Klose at 33/1.

Overall, it was a tricky World Cup with lots of strange results, especially in the group stages, such as Italy and England drawing with New Zealand and Algeria. In the knockout round it became a bit easier but still well done if you managed to finish with a profit. Whatever you made, it wont be a patch on the £2.5 Billion profit that FIFA has estimated to have pocketed!

We also ran a world cup competition for all SBC members, with the eventual winner correctly picking out Ghana & Uruguay as Quarter-finalists, Holland to make the final as well as Diego Forlan each way in the Golden Boot. He ended up making 31.35 pts profit from just 18 pts staked, which is great tipping!

New Season Around The Corner

One of the problems of betting on a short tournament such as the World Cup is the fact it only runs for 4 weeks and can throw up some strange results. Over the course of a full football season, luck evens itself out and form settles down, making it easier to profit from long-term.

The good news is that the new season is only a few weeks away and we will be back in touch closer to its start with details on how to make money football betting.

Castrol ratings for the final & playoff

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Holland: 0.5 pt Uruguay +0.75 handicap & 0.5 pt Holland to score over 1.5 goals. +0.265
2. Spain vs Germany: Spain to qualify @ 1.89. +0.89

Castrol was absolutely spot on with the Spain game. The ratings picked out that Spain had the better players which out ranked Germany’s recent form. This match was a real test for the ratings and it came up trumps.

Running total: +11.23 points from 30 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

Third/ Fourth Place Play Off.

1. Uruguay vs Germany

Uruguay: 38% Chance -> Value odds: 2.63 -> Best odds 3.4
Germany: 62% Chance -> Value odds: 1.61-> Best odds 1.4

The Germans should win this, but the betting markets are underestimating the Uruguayans a touch with the best odds on Uruguay implying a 29% chance vs the 38% predicted by Castrol. I think it would be prudent to hedge bets again and back Uruguay with the +0.75 handicap at 1.94 with various bookies for 0.5 points and cover the Germany dominance with a bet on Germany to score over 1.75 goals (over 1.5 and over 2.0 goals) at 2.01 for 0.5 pt which is the dominant over/ under team goal line at Pinnacle sports.

The Final

1. Holland vs Spain

Holland: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32-> Best odds 2.60
Spain: 57% Chance -> Value odds: 1.75 -> Best odds 1.57

Spain to win says Castrol, but they make it a much closer match than the bookies odds at the moment. Not a huge amount of juice in the 2.60 price though with those odds implying a 38.5% chance vs Castrol’s 43% chance.

The Double chance on Holland (the +0.5 handicap) pays 1.80 with 12 bet and the Draw No Bet is 2.63 with Bet Chronicle.

Holland to Win at 2.60 with Centre bet is the value bet for the final, but I’m not betting on this personally. Quite tempted by Holland to score over o.5 and 1 goals (over 0.75 goals) with Pinnacle though.

Castrol ratings for the final & playoff

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Holland: 0.5 pt Uruguay +0.75 handicap & 0.5 pt Holland to score over 1.5 goals. +0.265
2. Spain vs Germany: Spain to qualify @ 1.89. +0.89

Castrol was absolutely spot on with the Spain game. The ratings picked out that Spain had the better players which out ranked Germany’s recent form. This match was a real test for the ratings and it came up trumps.

Running total: +11.23 points from 30 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

Third/ Fourth Place Play Off.

1. Uruguay vs Germany

Uruguay: 38% Chance -> Value odds: 2.63 -> Best odds 3.4
Germany: 62% Chance -> Value odds: 1.61-> Best odds 1.4

The Germans should win this, but the betting markets are underestimating the Uruguayans a touch with the best odds on Uruguay implying a 29% chance vs the 38% predicted by Castrol. I think it would be prudent to hedge bets again and back Uruguay with the +0.75 handicap at 1.94 with various bookies for 0.5 points and cover the Germany dominance with a bet on Germany to score over 1.75 goals (over 1.5 and over 2.0 goals) at 2.01 for 0.5 pt which is the dominant over/ under team goal line at Pinnacle sports.

The Final

1. Holland vs Spain

Holland: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32-> Best odds 2.60
Spain: 57% Chance -> Value odds: 1.75 -> Best odds 1.57

Spain to win says Castrol, but they make it a much closer match than the bookies odds at the moment. Not a huge amount of juice in the 2.60 price though with those odds implying a 38.5% chance vs Castrol’s 43% chance.

The Double chance on Holland (the +0.5 handicap) pays 1.80 with 12 bet and the Draw No Bet is 2.63 with Bet Chronicle.

Holland to Win at 2.60 with Centre bet is the value bet for the final, but I’m not betting on this personally. Quite tempted by Holland to score over o.5 and 1 goals (over 0.75 goals) with Pinnacle though.

Castrol Ratings for the Semi Final

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Argentina vs Germany. Germany Draw No Bet @ 2.37 Bet Chronicle. +1.37.
2. Paraguay vs Spain: Paraguay +1 @ 2.03. Refund.

Excellent value calls on Germany and Paraguay inferred by the Castrol ratings.

Running total: +10.07 points from 28 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Uruguay vs Holland 

Uruguay: 35% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86-> Best odds 3.9 Pinnacle Sports
Holland: 65% Chance -> Value odds: 1.54-> Best odds 1.31 Bet Chronicle.

Holland should win this according to Castrol, but according to the ratings, the bookies are over estimating the Dutch and underestimating the Uruguayans. Although there’s value in it, I don’t fancy Uruguay to qualify. The +0.75 handicap pays 2.06. which is more likely over 90 minutes. I’m going to put half a point on that and cover a Holland walkover by backing Holland to score over 1.5 goals @ 2.03 with Pinnacle Sports for the other half point.

2. Spain vs Germany

Spain: 60% Chance -> Value odds: 1.67-> Best odds 1.89 Bet Chronicle.
Germany: 40% Chance -> Value odds: 2.5-> Best odds 2.04 188 bet.

I was quite surprised when I saw the ratings for this match, although four out of the top rated players are Spanish. The value bet is on Spain at 1.89 with Bet Chronicle. This will certainly be a good test for the ratings. The Germans have the better form, but according to the ratings, the Spanish have the better players. Should be a fascinating match.

Castrol ratings for July 3rd

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Holland vs Slovakia: Holland -1: Refund
2. Brazil vs Chile: Brazil -1. -1.
3. Paraguay vs Japan: Japan to qualify @ 2.65. -1, but great value bet.
4. Spain vs Portugal. No bet
5. Holland vs Brazil. Holland +0.5 1.98 SBObet +0.98. Excellent value call by Castrol ratings.
6. Uruguay vs Ghana: Uruguay to qualify @ 1.53. +0.53. Although a winning bet, Ghana clearly deserved to win this and I feel the ratings were way out here.

Running total: +8.7 points from 26 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for Saturday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Argentina vs Germany

Argentina : 52% Chance -> Value odds: 1.92-> Best odds 1.74 188 bet
Germany: 48% Chance -> Value odds: 2.08-> Best odds 2.25 Stan James

Argentina to shade it according to Castrol, but it could be a closer match than the odds compilers are pricing up. Germany’s best odds of 2.25 imply a 44% chance vs the 48% chance predicted by Castrol. Is that enough of an edge?

Germany +0.5 is 1.82 with SBObet and Germany Draw no bet is 2.37 with Bet Chronicle. The Draw No Bet seems to offer the best odds so that will go down as the value bet.

2. Paraguay vs Spain

Paraguay: 33% Chance -> Value odds: 3.03-> Best odds 5.30 Bet Chronicle
Spain: 76% Chance -> Value odds: 1.31-> Best odds 1.21 Blue Sq.

No value in Spain at 1.21 according to Castrol ratings. The Paraguay +1 handicap is 2.03 seems more likely than Paraguay qualifying so that’s the value bet here.

Castrol ratings for July 2nd

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

A bit late in posting these, but luckily I wrote down the ratings and odds the other day.

The Castrol ratings for Friday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Holland vs Brazil

Holland: 44% Chance -> Value odds: 2.27-> Best odds 2.70 Blue Sq
Brazil: 56% Chance -> Value odds: 1.79-> Best odds 1.53 Stan James.

Castrol give Holland just a 44% chance of winning, but that’s the value bet with the best odds of 2.70 implying just a 37% chance. Certainly little value in backing Brazil at 1.53. For this match I prefer the Holland +0.5 Handicap at 1.98 with SBObet.

2. Uruguay vs Ghana

Uruguay : 73% Chance -> Value odds: 1.37-> Best odds 1.53 Stan James
Ghana: 27% Chance -> Value odds: 3.70-> Best odds 2.63

The bookmakers rightly favour Uruguay according to Castrol, but are being too generous with the odds on Uruguay. Uruguay to qualify at 1.53 is the value bet.

Castrol ratings for June 29th

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

No joy yesterday. In retrospect I should have changed the tracking experiment and made it a no bet day. There really wasn’t much value in those odds and the bookies had things pretty tight. Still, the Holland -1 was a dodgy penalty in the 94th minute away from coming good.

Thankfully today we have one clear cut value bet, at least according to the ratings.

The Castrol ratings for Monday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Paraguay vs Japan

Paraguay: 53% Chance -> Value odds: 1.89-> Best odds 1.55
Japan: 47% Chance -> Value odds: 2.13-> Best odds 2.65 Bet Chronicle.

Japan have 47% chance of qualifying according to Castrol vs the best bookie odds of 2.65 which implies a 37% chance. Who’s right? We’ll find out in a few hours. Japan +0.5 is 1.92 while seems reasonable, but the value bet is Japan to qualify @ 2.65.

2. Spain vs Portugal

Spain: 63% Chance -> Value odds: 1.59 > Best odds 1.48
Portugal: 37% Chance -> Value odds: 2.70 -> Best odds 2.84

Spain should win this, but the value lies with Portugal according to Castrol. Portugal are given a 37% chance which still isn’t great with 2.84 representing a 35% probability. Value, but not enough for me, so I’ll skip this one for the tracking experiment. For the record, Spain are 2.11 for the win, Portugal 4.40 for the win over 90. Portugal +0.5 is 1.91 with 12 bet.

 

 

Castrol ratings for the 28th of June

Posted on by Dan

Before we get to today’s matches, here’s the scores on the doors so far:

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Final Group Games:

1. Portugal vs Brazil: Brazil @ 2.30 Various -1.00
2. North Korea vs Ivory Coast: Ivory Coast -1 @ 1.73 +0.73
3. Switzerland vs Honduras: Honduras/ Draw Double Chance @ 2.60 Unibet. +1.60
4. Chile vs Spain: Chile +1 @ 2.14 SBObet. Refund.

4th round:

1. Uruguay vs South Korea. Uruguay @ 1.44. +0.44
2. US vs Ghana: US @ 1.84 -1
3. England vs Germany: England @ 1.92 -1
4. Argentina vs Mexico: Mexico +1 @ 1.93 -1

Running total: 9.2 points from 20 points staked.

Not a great weekend for the ratings, but still up in the week of tracking. England’s rating was a fair bit out, though the bookies were also not prepared for it either, with the best odds of German going through being just 2.00, implying a 50% chance at best. US/ Ghana went down to the wire and Argentina/ Mexico was worth a value shout, though in retrospect the odds for the +1 handicap were rather tight given the Argie’s free scoring tendancies of late.

That’s the update, now lets continue the tracking experiment.

The Castrol ratings for Monday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Holland vs Slovakia

Holland: 86% Chance -> Value odds: 1.16 -> Best odds 1.20 Centrebet.
Slovakia: 14% Chance -> Value odds: 7.14-> Best odds 5.50 bet Chronicle

There’s value in betting on Holland to Qualify according to Castrol, but there’s not much juice in those odds. The 90 minute win pays 1.48 with Pinnacle, while the 90 minute -1 handicap is 1.87 with SBO bet. Technically Holland to qualify at 1.20 should be the value bet, but the -1 handicap seems more attractive given the domination expected.Fine margins though and it looks as though the bookies are largely in line with Castrol here. In reality this would probably be a no bet situation.

1. Brazil vs Chile

Brazil: 78% Chance -> Value odds: 1.28 -> Best odds 1.22 Centrebet.
Chile: 22% Chance -> Value odds: 4.54 -> Best odds 5.00 Boyle Sports.

Again, fine margins with bookies largely in line with Castrol here. Going by Castrol’s rating’s there may even be value in laying Brazil to qualify on betfair at 1.26 lay price. Small value though.

The Chile +1 handicap over 90 minutes @ 1.99 with 188 seems the closest to a value bet, but I’d want a bigger line than that against Brazil if I was betting with my own money. I’ve tracked the castrol ratings by betting on the side of the value though so to be consistent, I won’t skip this one, though don’t expect much. Chile +1 @ 1.99 188bet.

England have a 54% chance of beating Germany

Posted on by Dan

…..According to Castrol ratings.

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

The Castrol ratings were in fine form during the group stages, now its time to see if the ratings can continue to spot the value in the knockout stages.

I’ll update the results from the last group stage matches and today’s US vs Ghana & Uruguay vs Korea games when I get chance.

The Castrol ratings for Sunday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value.

1. England vs Germany

England: 54% Chance -> Value odds: 1.85 -> Best odds 1.92 Bet Chronicle.
Germany: 46% Chance -> Value odds: 2.17-> Best odds 2.00 Victor Chandler/ Ladbrokes.

The odds are ‘to qualify’ which includes overtime and penalties. According to the ratings, England could just shade it, with the bookies agreeing, while still leaving the door open for a value bet on England at 1.92. Personally I’m not even going to consider betting on this match. There will be enough shouting at the telly as it is. However, for the tracking experiment, it’s England to qualify at 1.92.

2. Argentina vs Mexico

Argentina: 65% Chance -> Value odds: 1.54 -> Best odds 1.25 Paddy Power
Mexico: 35% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86 -> 4.50 Ladbrokes.

The match brings up an interesting value situation according to Castrol’s ratings. Argentina should go through, that much is clear, but going by the ratings, the bookies are over estimating Argentina’s potential domination slightly.

Favourites do have a very good record in the knockout stage though so rather than going for the shock Mexico victory (even though there’s value in it), it might be better to even things up with the handicap bet over 90 minutes. BetInternet go 1.93 on Mexico with the +1 handicap which might be the best way to play the match. This means you get your money back if Argentina win by just 1 goal.