Football Betting

A Great Start To The Football Tipster Season

Posted on by Mike

With the international football weekend, it’s a good chance to have a good long look at the performance so far this season from some of the best football tipsters that we monitor here at SBC.

We currently recommend 5 different football tipster services in our Hall of Fame, with a further 2 services that are bubbling under this level. A Hall of Fame ranking effectively means we give that service a full recommendation as one to join and follow with your own money.

Our ratings are all judged over the long-term so you can be assured that this is no flash in the pan performance! We also take into account the ease of following any service and other aspects such as cost, odds availability and customer service.

So with all that in mind….the big question is how have our best rated football tipsters performed so far this season?

The answer is …very well!

Our 5 Hall of Fame tipsters combined (Services 1 through to 5) have been going great guns with 4 of them steaming ahead with ROI figures of over 17%. Only Service 5 has had a slow start although with only 14 bets so far this season, it’s very early days for them!

The other services (6 and 7) have also been performing well, with each making a very decent profit.

Check out the table below for the performance for 7 of our best football tipsters since July this year.  At Just £50 stakes per service, you would already be £5109 up!

(Please note – the actual names of each tipster have been protected and are available to full SBC members only).

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How Does This Compare To Previous Seasons?

Now if you are like me and take a lot of convincing when it comes to stats, you are probably asking….Sure that looks great, but how did they do before this season? What do the long-term stats say?

After all, we have all seen how politicians use and abuse statistics to prove a point, backed up by the classic quote “Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics”.

Well I can assure you that our best football tipsters are so chosen because they have kept up their form over many seasons. As we report back to all members on the latest stats each month in our monthly Smart Betting Club issue, you can be assured as well there is no Bernie Madoff style manipulation going on here!

To help prove the point that each of these tipsters also has performed well long-term, check out the table below listing their results from last season.

As you can see, over the course of the 2009/2010 full season, each of these tipsters made a large profit to a very good standard. The combined return was 360 pts, which at simple £50 stakes would have made you a £18,026.50 profit. The excellent start seen so far this season is definitely no flash in the pan!

How You Can Benefit

Many of the football tipsters listed here are followed by numerous SBC members who have benefitted from the reports and stats we provide to them each month.

We also know each of these tipsters are good as we place thousands of pounds ourselves each weekend following them too. We always put our money where our mouth is.

If you are keen to get started on your profitable betting walk, then these football tipsters provide a great place to start.

If you want to know more, including full reviews of each service and regular reports on their ongoing progress consider a full Smart Betting Club membership. By joining today you can get yourself set-up and following these experts in no time at all.

Will Chelsea miss Lampard?

Posted on by Dan

Frank Lampard out for 2 weeks, missing the big London Derby against Arsenal this weekend. The question – is how this will impact Chelsea?

It’s a hard one to answer with Lampard having an attendance record that would make the school swot Cuthbert Cringeworthy green with envy. Still, there are some interesting statistics available from the 29 games he’s missed since 2005.

Using stats tools from http://www.bettorlogic.com/ we can put some actual numbers on the board.

Since 2005, Chelsea have won 69% of their games with an average of 2.26 points per game.

Here’s the split for when Lamps is playing/ not playing:

Lamps played: Chelsea win 70% of games with an average of 2.29 points per game.
Lamps not played: Chelsea win 62% of games with an average of 2.10 points per game.

So Chelsea are indeed slightly worse off without Lampard; their win rate and average points per game drops without him.

Some of the absences above might have been when Lampard was rested against lesser opposition, so what if we isolate Chelsea’s record against top half teams only?

Now we get:

Lamps played: Chelsea win 68% of games with an average of 2.20 points per game.
Lamps not played: Chelsea win 38% of games with an average of 1.54 points per game.

Lampard missed just 13 of these 92 games but it still gives you an idea of his impact.

Overall the stats show that Chelsea are unlikely to fall to pieces without Lamps this weekend, but I’d want more than the 1.78 on offer for a Chelsea win against Arsenal, even after last week’s shock defeat to West Brom. Arsenal had 12 shots on target to the Baggies’ 5 in that game and Chelsea have just a 50% win rate against top 4 teams since 2005. I’d be looking for a price nearer 2.0 on the Chelsea win.

Dan Jones

Football Over-Reactions and How to Benefit From Them

Posted on by Mike

The few days after the first weekend of the football season are always a fascinating time to observe some of the over-reactions that the football betting markets take after just 1 round of games.

Its often a time like no other as a single result such as Wigan’s thumping by Blackpool has a much bigger impact on their odds in certain markets than at most other times during the season (the final few months excepted).

These over-reactions can be a very good thing though as this in turn can open up some interesting looking value bets if you know what your looking for.

Everyone Has To Eat

Its fair to ask just why we see such over-reactions in odds so soon? Well I put it down to the hyped up nonsense we read and hear in the media. Most reporters understand a season is 38 games long and so a team should be judged over the long-term, but then constantly writing this doesn’t sell them newspapers. Everyone has to eat after all! Therefore they often find a story and blow it out of proportion and voila, there is a knock-on effect with bookies and punters. Thats not to say that everything we read and hear is reactionary and untrue but with a shrewd approach you can pick out the wheat from the chaff and potentially benefit from this.

To give an example, lets look at Wigan’s defeat by Blackpool, which was very a poor performance from the home team admittedly.  If taking a different approach you may wish to consider how Wigan have been very inconsistent and ended last season with a 8-2 thrashing yet were taking on a side with fantastic momentum from last season. Call this the ‘Burnley’ effect if you will as they beat both Man United and Everton in the first 2 home games last season – where are they now?

Contrast Wigan then with a team like Wolves who had a good start beating Stoke 2-1 at home. How would you judge these 2 teams (Wigan and Wolves) in a season match bet today?

Well Victor Chandler have an market offering such a Wolves – Wigan season match bet and before Saturdays game, both teams were priced at 5/6. Following Saturday’s games, you can now pick up Wigan at 6/5 whilst Wolves are as short as 8/13.

That’s one heck of a drift for Wigan who last season finished only 2 points behind Wolves. Can so much be taken from just 1 game and is this an over-reaction? My spidy senses tell me so!

Relegation Odds

There are plenty of other areas where we see significant changes simply based upon one game such as the popular relegation market. The aforementioned Wigan were as big as 9/4 before Saturday’s game but now have been slashed into 11/8. Similarly a team such as West Ham have gone from 11/2 to 9/2 after their 3-0 defeat away to Aston Villa.

Next weekend we will see even more changes and movement in odds especially if we see yet more freakish results like in the Wigan – Blackpool game.

I firmly believe that value can be found in these kind of markets if you dig around and take a sensible long-term view in these first few weeks. Good luck if getting involved in these kind of bets and do drop us a line either via email or on the forum if you are.