Fink Tank Test: Ratings for mid week games.

I’m testing the predictive and value betting ability with the Fink Tank ratings. Have a good read of the first post here to make sense of it. Basically my rules are to bet when you can get odds which offer value when compared to Fink Tank’s predicted probability of each game.

So far the ratings have made a profit using a strictly value betting approach.

Profit: +37.55
Wagered: 97
ROI (Profit divided by turnover): 38.7%

A storming performance last week, with the ratings spotting the value in Newcastle against Arsenal.

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Here are this weekend’s selections:

The Fink Tank column represents Fink Tank’s estimated probability of the team winning. E.g. 47.7 = 47.7% chance of winning. We bet when the odds available imply the probability is lower (i.e. value)

The football tipsters to follow & how to follow them

October was a crazy month even by football’s high standards. We had the Wayne Rooney contract saga, Liverpool’s high court drama and of course the news that Francis Jeffers has signed for Australian side Newcastle Jets*.

*Ok, the last story is big only in Australia, a place where Mark Bosnich is considered the Antipodean equivalent of Alan Hansen!

One constant has been the performance of the best football tipsters that we monitor and report back on here at SBC. Those of you who read my blog post in early October (read this here), would have seen just what a good start to the season it had been for them.

The big question is then…how have they fared since my last update?

Tipster update

To quickly recap first, the first 5 services below are in our Hall of Fame, whilst tipster’s 6 and 7 are rated just beneath that in our ‘Recommended’ section.

Here is the updated table on their latest performance since July 2010 when the new season began.

(Please note – the actual names of each tipster have been protected and are available to full SBC members only).

Combined, the tipsters are really hitting our straps with a profit total in excess of 125 pts and already over a £6000 profit at £50 stakes. Service 3 has been truly excellent from the 14 bets advised so far and has the best ROI record, whereas Service 4 has the best points profit return.

ROI = Return on Investment. Total profits divided by total stakes.

Horses for courses – Sensible money management

Of course, in reality, it wouldn’t make sense to simply lump £50 on every bet. Some tipsters have a higher strike rate or bet turnover than others meaning you’d burn through your money prematurely unless you set up a proper betting bank. Instead we adjust the amounts we place per bet based upon each service and its strategy.

Service 1 for example has advised 259 bets this year in contrast to Service 3 (only 14 bets) so you would want to follow them with different staking amounts.  For example – in the table below we have £40 on each Service 1 bet and £130 on each Service 3 bet.

By using some sensible money management and employing what we call betting banks, you can make your betting much more efficient.

Below is an example of the type of staking and subsequent profit levels we would suggest for each service this season.

The average stake works out to be around £90. The total profit via this method for all 7 services would be £7,211.07 and you would also have the peace of mind that you are staking correctly on each service.

Now we’re not suggesting anyone should follow all these football tipsters, but it does give you an idea of the importance of varying your stakes depending on the service.

Help Is At Hand

If you are not familiar with the idea of a betting bank and are keen to find out more, than help is at hand as a member of the Smart Betting Club.

In our most recently published issue we shared our beginner’s strategy on money management, which contains easy to follow guidance on how to apply all of this to your own betting.

The learning curve for understanding it all is low and once you have a grasp on it, you could see your betting improve exponentially just like many of our members.

Also, if you’re keen to find out all the details on the 7 football tipsters above, their identities and how you can start following them, all of this is available as a Smart Betting Club member.

We place thousands of pounds ourselves each week following these tipsters so as always we put our money where our mouth is.

Sign up for a Smart Betting Club membership here today.

The football tipsters to follow & how to follow them

October was a crazy month even by football’s high standards. We had the Wayne Rooney contract saga, Liverpool’s high court drama and of course the news that Francis Jeffers has signed for Australian side Newcastle Jets*.

*Ok, the last story is big only in Australia, a place where Mark Bosnich is considered the Antipodean equivalent of Alan Hansen!

One constant has been the performance of the best football tipsters that we monitor and report back on here at SBC. Those of you who read my blog post in early October (read this here), would have seen just what a good start to the season it had been for them.

The big question is then…how have they fared since my last update?

Tipster update

To quickly recap first, the first 5 services below are in our Hall of Fame, whilst tipster’s 6 and 7 are rated just beneath that in our ‘Recommended’ section.

Here is the updated table on their latest performance since July 2010 when the new season began.

(Please note – the actual names of each tipster have been protected and are available to full SBC members only).

Combined, the tipsters are really hitting our straps with a profit total in excess of 125 pts and already over a £6000 profit at £50 stakes. Service 3 has been truly excellent from the 14 bets advised so far and has the best ROI record, whereas Service 4 has the best points profit return.

ROI = Return on Investment. Total profits divided by total stakes.

Horses for courses – Sensible money management

Of course, in reality, it wouldn’t make sense to simply lump £50 on every bet. Some tipsters have a higher strike rate or bet turnover than others meaning you’d burn through your money prematurely unless you set up a proper betting bank. Instead we adjust the amounts we place per bet based upon each service and its strategy.

Service 1 for example has advised 259 bets this year in contrast to Service 3 (only 14 bets) so you would want to follow them with different staking amounts.  For example – in the table below we have £40 on each Service 1 bet and £130 on each Service 3 bet.

By using some sensible money management and employing what we call betting banks, you can make your betting much more efficient.

Below is an example of the type of staking and subsequent profit levels we would suggest for each service this season.

The average stake works out to be around £90. The total profit via this method for all 7 services would be £7,211.07 and you would also have the peace of mind that you are staking correctly on each service.

Now we’re not suggesting anyone should follow all these football tipsters, but it does give you an idea of the importance of varying your stakes depending on the service.

Help Is At Hand

If you are not familiar with the idea of a betting bank and are keen to find out more, than help is at hand as a member of the Smart Betting Club.

In our most recently published issue we shared our beginner’s strategy on money management, which contains easy to follow guidance on how to apply all of this to your own betting.

The learning curve for understanding it all is low and once you have a grasp on it, you could see your betting improve exponentially just like many of our members.

Also, if you’re keen to find out all the details on the 7 football tipsters above, their identities and how you can start following them, all of this is available as a Smart Betting Club member.

We place thousands of pounds ourselves each week following these tipsters so as always we put our money where our mouth is.

Sign up for a Smart Betting Club membership here today.

Mike's Football Bets 8th November

A full midweek fixture list in the Premier League and my best value bet is over at White Hart Lane where Spurs take on Sunderland on Tuesday night. Two teams with totally contrasting form at home and on the road, with Redknapp’s charges winning 9 out of 13 games against ‘bottom 12’ opposition since the 09/10 season. Sunderland are woeful away from home losing 15 out of 23 games and I’m taking the 1.83 on Spurs to overcome a -0.75 Asian Handicap with Bet365.

Over at Molineux I am also backing Spurs’ North London rivals Arsenal to overcome a -1 Asian Handicap at 2.14 with 188bet. I don’t seem to be able to call Arsene Wengers team right recently but the odds on them winning by at least a goal look value against a Wolves team on a very difficult run of form. If Arshavin & Van Persie play, along with Fabregas & Walcott I think we could see goals here against a Wolves team who maybe a bit flat after recent losses.

I also foresee plenty of action up at St James Park where Blackburn travel to an in-form Newcastle side who look to have plenty of goals in them. Blackburn’s games see over 2.5 goals away from home around 55% of the time and with Newcastle hitting their straps recently, the 2.04 on overs with SBObet equates to a 49% chance. Not huge value but worth a small bet.

Finally my last main bet is on Stoke to overcome a -0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.85 with Pinnacle against a Birmingham side who are poor travellers. At home they have won 8 and drawn 4 out of the last 14 games against bottom 12 teams and Tony Pulis will have them targeting 3 points here. They have been unlucky with lots of referee decisions lately and this looks too big a price for what will be a tough game for Birmingham.

Main Bets
1.5 pt Spurs (-0.75 AH) V Sunderland. 1.83 Bet365
1 pt Arsenal (-1 AH) V Wolves. 2.14 188bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Newcastle V Blackburn 2.04 SBObet
1 pt Stoke (-0.25 AH) V Birmingham. 1.85 Pinnacle

Shortlist Bets
1 pt West Ham (0.25 AH) V West Brom. 2.08 SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Stoke V Birmingham. 2.33 SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike’s Football Bets 8th November

A full midweek fixture list in the Premier League and my best value bet is over at White Hart Lane where Spurs take on Sunderland on Tuesday night. Two teams with totally contrasting form at home and on the road, with Redknapp’s charges winning 9 out of 13 games against ‘bottom 12’ opposition since the 09/10 season. Sunderland are woeful away from home losing 15 out of 23 games and I’m taking the 1.83 on Spurs to overcome a -0.75 Asian Handicap with Bet365.

Over at Molineux I am also backing Spurs’ North London rivals Arsenal to overcome a -1 Asian Handicap at 2.14 with 188bet. I don’t seem to be able to call Arsene Wengers team right recently but the odds on them winning by at least a goal look value against a Wolves team on a very difficult run of form. If Arshavin & Van Persie play, along with Fabregas & Walcott I think we could see goals here against a Wolves team who maybe a bit flat after recent losses.

I also foresee plenty of action up at St James Park where Blackburn travel to an in-form Newcastle side who look to have plenty of goals in them. Blackburn’s games see over 2.5 goals away from home around 55% of the time and with Newcastle hitting their straps recently, the 2.04 on overs with SBObet equates to a 49% chance. Not huge value but worth a small bet.

Finally my last main bet is on Stoke to overcome a -0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.85 with Pinnacle against a Birmingham side who are poor travellers. At home they have won 8 and drawn 4 out of the last 14 games against bottom 12 teams and Tony Pulis will have them targeting 3 points here. They have been unlucky with lots of referee decisions lately and this looks too big a price for what will be a tough game for Birmingham.

Main Bets
1.5 pt Spurs (-0.75 AH) V Sunderland. 1.83 Bet365
1 pt Arsenal (-1 AH) V Wolves. 2.14 188bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Newcastle V Blackburn 2.04 SBObet
1 pt Stoke (-0.25 AH) V Birmingham. 1.85 Pinnacle

Shortlist Bets
1 pt West Ham (0.25 AH) V West Brom. 2.08 SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Stoke V Birmingham. 2.33 SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Fink Tank Test: Games for the weekend of the 6th

I’m testing the predictive and value betting ability with the Fink Tank ratings. Have a good read of the first post here to make sense of it. Basically my rules are to bet when you can get odds which offer value when compared to Fink Tank’s predicted probability of each game.

So far the ratings have made a profit using a strictly value betting approach.

Profit: +28.51
Points wagered: 89
ROI (Profit divided by turnover): 32%

So a good performance so far, but pretty much all of this profit has come from landing a few big winners. Everything else has been pretty much break even.

Here are this weekend’s selections:

The Fink Tank column represents Fink Tank’s estimated probability of the team winning. E.g. 47.7 = 47.7% chance of winning. We bet when the odds available imply the probability is lower (i.e. value)

Mike's Football Bets 5th November

Once again we venture to the Reebok stadium for one of my main bets this weekend as Owen Coyle’s men face a resurgent Spurs, fresh from taking Inter Milan apart on Tuesday. Despite all the hype surrounding Spurs, I am siding with the home team again, where you can get 1.84 with SBOBet on them with a +0.25 Asian Handicap. Bolton are a strong team on their own patch and were very unlucky to lose last Sunday so I expect them to get at least a draw here, all things being equal.

Bolton’s victors last Sunday were Liverpool, who have flattered to deceive of late and face a real test up against a very slick Chelsea outfit. I was surprised to see odds of 2.15 on Ancelotti’s charges to win at Anfield as that represents a 46% chance of them winning, which I feel undervalues them. I don’t expect the Liverpool back line to cope well with the likes of Malouda, Anelka and Drogba in their current form and it would be no surprise to see the 3 points go to Stamford Bridge.

Sunderland were dire last weekend and everything that could go wrong did as they were taken apart far too easily by local rivals Newcastle. At the Stadium of Light however they are a different proposition and face a Stoke side on a losing run of their own. The price on a home win has gone out to 2.15, which looks to me an over-reaction to one poor performance and I am lumping on.

A couple of shortlist bets as well with a chance taken on City to get back to form at what looks a value price. The same down at Craven Cottage where the over 2.5 goals price is too big, Villa have to start scoring goals soon and Fulham have Dempsey in great form and quality support from the likes of Dembele and Andy Johnson.

Main Bets
1.5 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V Spurs. 1.84 SBOBET
1 pt Chelsea to beat Liverpool. 2.15 12Bet
1 pt Sunderland to beat Stoke. 2.15 Unibet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Man City to beat West Brom 2.17 5Dimes
1 pt Over 2.5 goals – Fulham V Aston Villa. 2.35 Canbet/SBOBET

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike’s Football Bets 5th November

Once again we venture to the Reebok stadium for one of my main bets this weekend as Owen Coyle’s men face a resurgent Spurs, fresh from taking Inter Milan apart on Tuesday. Despite all the hype surrounding Spurs, I am siding with the home team again, where you can get 1.84 with SBOBet on them with a +0.25 Asian Handicap. Bolton are a strong team on their own patch and were very unlucky to lose last Sunday so I expect them to get at least a draw here, all things being equal.

Bolton’s victors last Sunday were Liverpool, who have flattered to deceive of late and face a real test up against a very slick Chelsea outfit. I was surprised to see odds of 2.15 on Ancelotti’s charges to win at Anfield as that represents a 46% chance of them winning, which I feel undervalues them. I don’t expect the Liverpool back line to cope well with the likes of Malouda, Anelka and Drogba in their current form and it would be no surprise to see the 3 points go to Stamford Bridge.

Sunderland were dire last weekend and everything that could go wrong did as they were taken apart far too easily by local rivals Newcastle. At the Stadium of Light however they are a different proposition and face a Stoke side on a losing run of their own. The price on a home win has gone out to 2.15, which looks to me an over-reaction to one poor performance and I am lumping on.

A couple of shortlist bets as well with a chance taken on City to get back to form at what looks a value price. The same down at Craven Cottage where the over 2.5 goals price is too big, Villa have to start scoring goals soon and Fulham have Dempsey in great form and quality support from the likes of Dembele and Andy Johnson.

Main Bets
1.5 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V Spurs. 1.84 SBOBET
1 pt Chelsea to beat Liverpool. 2.15 12Bet
1 pt Sunderland to beat Stoke. 2.15 Unibet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Man City to beat West Brom 2.17 5Dimes
1 pt Over 2.5 goals – Fulham V Aston Villa. 2.35 Canbet/SBOBET

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike