Before the world cup started, there were myriad of predictions put forward from various stats based models. The one that really caught my eye was the Castrol Ratings System which takes into account the overall impact an individual player has on each game. It not only scores players based on the accuracy of the passes, it also grades those scores based on where the pass took place on the field.
The ratings for individual players are then combined to give team ratings, which are then used to give a % chance probability of a certain match outcome.
But are the ratings any good?
Let’s put them to the test….
The Castrol ratings for Tuesday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet.
Green means value. Red means no value.
1. Mexico vs Uruguay
Mexico: 33% Chance -> Value odds: 3.03 -> Best odds 4.1 (Pinnacle)
Draw: 26% Chance -> Value odds: 3.85 -> Best odds 1.84 (Bet Chronicle)
Uruguay: 41% Chance -> Value odds: 2.44 -> Best odds 4.6 (Pinnacle)
If this were a competitive match, Uruguay would stand the best chance of winning according to the ratings, but this isn’t really a competitive match. Both teams need just draw to qualify which is why the draw odds are so low.
Probably one to avoid, but the best bet for an interest going by the ratings might be to back Uruguay with the (0) handicap which returns stakes if there is a draw. Best odds on the (0) handicap are with SBO bet at 2.10. The pure value play would be the Double Chance on Mexico and Uruguay (i.e. a result) Best odds for this are 2.10 with Unibet.
2. France vs South Africa
France: 25% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86-> Best odds 2.38 (188bet)
Draw: 37% Chance -> Value odds: 2.7 -> Best odds 3.4 (Ladbrokes)
South Africa: 28% Chance -> Value odds: 3.57 -> Best odds 3.31 (Pinnacle)
There’s value in the draw according to the Castrol ratings. It could be another funny match with both teams out barring a set of weird results. France should win this given their talent, but the team’s discord makes England’s clear the air talks look like a lover’s tiff. South Africa will be motivated to go out with a bang. Probably one to avoid, but according to the ratings, backing the draw at 3.4 is the value bet.
3. Greece vs Argentina
Greece: 14% Chance -> Value odds: 7.14-> Best odds 6.6(SBO)
Draw: 22% Chance -> Value odds: 4.55 -> Best odds 3.93 (Pinnacle)
Argentina: 64% Chance -> Value odds: 1.56 -> Best odds 1.64 (Pinnacle)
According to the ratings there’s shade of value in Argentina at 1.64. In reality it depends if the tactical genius that is Diego Maradona decides to rest some players.
4. Nigeria vs South Korea
Nigeria: 34% Chance -> Value odds: 2.94-> Best odds 3.07 (Pinnacle)
Draw: 36% Chance -> Value odds: 2.78 -> Best odds 3.93 (Pinnacle)
South Korea: 30% Chance -> Value odds: 3.33 -> Best odds 2.6 (Ladbrokes)
Nigeria are out, but playing for African pride, while South Korea are odds on to qualify. According to Castrol there is value in the draw and Nigeria. A good way to play this would be to cover both value outcomes with a draw no bet, or zero handicap. The best odds on offer for this are with the (0) handicap with SBObet at 2.21, though you can get 2.29 by creating your own DNB from the best win and draw odds.Might also be worth the +0.5 handicap for Nigeria at 1.60.
I’ll try to update and record the ratings for other matches as the tournament goes progresses.
Dan