When it comes to evaluating tipsters, one of the most reliable metrics we can use is Closing Line Value (CLV).
Why?
Because simply looking at profit and loss figures often doesn’t tell the full story. Results can be skewed by variance or small sample sizes – CLV cuts through all of that.
If a tipster is consistently beating the closing line, especially with sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle, it’s a strong sign they’re identifying genuine value and making smart bets.
They are tipsters or services we want to consider following with our own money.
That’s why we’re excited to be incorporating the methodology behind Track-A-Bet – the latest product from Christian Baier—into our proofing and review processes here at SBC.
This tool adds another layer of insight, helping us assess tipsters not just on outcomes, but on the underlying quality of their advice.
We also have produced some specific SBC Member user-guides on Track A Bet (both a video & written) to explain how it works further.
A Real Life Example
Let’s use this real-life betting record to illustrate: 183 bets at level stakes, average odds of 1.95 (or 19/20 in fractional odds), a profit of 20.49 points and a ROI of 11.15%. This is brilliant, right? We’ve found the next Patrick Veitch or Tony Bloom!
Maybe, but this tipster’s CLV suggests not. Despite the profit made during this snapshot sample, we would actually have expected these bets to lose 4.7 points with a -2.56% ROI considering the closing prices with Pinnacle.
This came from a recent submission to the SBC from a football tipster. Were they being disingenuous or lying about their bets? No, it appears that they were being ‘fooled by randomness’ into believing that luck was skill.
We would expect the red and orange lines to converge over time and unfortunately in this case – we’d be lucky to break even once the sample reaches 1,830 or 18,300 bets.
What Are We Doing With This Data?
We have always looked at the closing line at the SBC but this data allows us to do a few things that we couldn’t do before:
- We can now separate out the very best tipsters from the rest quickly, without having to collect larger samples or manually run checks on how bets are performing against the closing line
- We can incorporate this data into our reviews, with graphs and tables used to clearly demonstrate how much value bets are finding
This, alongside all of our other deeper analytics around things like drawdowns, betting banks and odds sensitivity mean that our commentary and conclusions will now have even more depth to help you find the right services for you!
Sign Up For Access
We have created two user guides for SBC Members on the Track A Bet product – one written piece and one 15-minute video walkthrough – so in addition to the packed reviews referenced above, you can get instant access to both of those (and all of our other Intelligence) too!
It takes just minutes to get this access – you can get a full membership by clicking here, choosing your subscription and entering your details – you will then be ‘in’!
If you have any questions about our work on CLV, our reviews or anything else, please get in touch!