In this article, our friends at Football Form Lab analyse the data to find Schalke vs Dortmund bet ideas AKA the ‘Revierderby’
Schalke 04 v Dortmund: Saturday April 14th 14.30.
Dortmund beat Bayern in midweek to move to the brink of back-to-back Bundesliga titles. They now lead the Bavarian powerhouse by six points with four games remaining. However, this weekend they travel to Gelsenkirchen for the “Revierderby” with Schalke sitting third in the table and desperate to stop their bitter rivals from taking another championship.
In the previous 14 seasons Schalke have lost just twice at home against Dortmund but one of those was last term, when they were comfortably beaten 3-1 with their goal being a late consolation. Furthermore, Dortmund won the reverse fixture this season and are currently unbeaten in 24 league games as well as having reached the German Cup final. However, Schalke will also feel confident given their home record of nine wins in their last 10 games, with all those wins coming by at least two goals. Schalke’s home streak might come to an end in this game though, as this fixture has ended in a draw in half the past 14 years.
A look at their respective records against top teams shows that Schalke have lost 6/9 home games against top-four finishers in the past two seasons. Meanwhile Dortmund have won 6/9 away matches against top-six finishers since the start of last season. With this in mind we’d prefer to support Dortmund although with the draw being a real danger result, it may be wise to try and take some cover. The Dortmund Draw No Bet can be backed at 1.7 with Betvictor.
When a game is likely to end in a draw, goals can be at a premium. Schalke have not conceded more than once in 10 home games, including just twice in the first half during that time, and seven of their last nine home games against top-six teams have had fewer than three goals. Similarly, Dortmund have an excellent defensive record on the road, conceding just 10 times all season, and all four of their trips to current top-six sides have had -2.5 goals. Moreover, four of the past six derbies have finished with fewer than three goals. Under 2.5 goals is a generous looking 2.21 with 188bet.
There are some obvious favourites when looking for a goalscorer bet in this match with Robert Lewandowski in great form for Dortmund having scored in three of his last four appearances and in five of his last eight on the road (seven in total), as well as netting in two of the three derbies since the start of last season. Shinji Kagawa is also in great form having scored in half his last 14 games and scored twice in the 3-1 win over Schalke last season, although given most his goals have come at home the Pole looks the better value. Lewandoski is available at 2.38 to score anytime.
However, Klaas-jan Huntelaar’s stats make all others look poor in comparison. The Dutchman has scored in 22 of his last 32 matches as well as in 11 of Schalke’s 15 home league games this term – netting 17 times in total. At 2.4 the Dutchman looks to offer some value at 2.4 to score.
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