My football betting this weekend starts over at the Reebok where Bolton host Villa in a game where I feel the over 2.5 goals line is offering value. Bolton’s home games have seen an average of 3 goals scored, whilst Villa’s similar away record is 3.14 goals so the odds of 2.03 on offer for over 2.5 goals is worth a pop. Villa are also going to be missing Cuellar and James Collins, 2 very important defenders although with the likes of Bent, Young and Albrighton will retain a real cutting edge up front.
I’m going for the same goals outlook when Wolves host Spurs on Sunday as both these teams have seen the overs mark hit in respective home and away games 64% and 57% of times. With 2.10 on over 2.5 goals, the bookies think this a 47.6% chance, where I make it around 55% so big value by my calculations. Spurs also have most of their creative hub back with Modric & Van Der Vaart fit and I can’t see Wolves defence keeping a clean sheet.
My last main bet features Man City against a Wigan team who ship goals against the very best teams as in their 7 games against the top 5 this season they have scored 2, yet conceded 19! It was a similar pattern last year and they will really struggle with the pace and movement of Tevez, Dzeko, Ballotelli and Silva if fit. You can get 1.90 on Man City to overcome a -1.25 Asian Handicap and I don’t think Wigan’s defence will be able to prevent a comfortable home win here.
A few shortlist bets to speak of, firstly over at Anfield as Liverpool host Man Utd. United have won only 4 times away this season, whereas Liverpool have lost just twice at home before Dalglish took over. The loss of Vidic and Ferdinand cannot be understated either as these two are a quiet superb central defensive pairing and I am taking Liverpool to overcome a 0 Asian Handicap. Close to being a main bet.
I was undone for a profit last weekend thanks to Carlos Vela’s offside equaliser against Stoke on Monday night although undeterred I am taking on West Brom once again as on Saturday they have a tough fixture away at Birmingham. As Arsenal found out to their cost, Alex McLeish’s men are not to be under-estimated and the -0.25 AH at 2.08 offers a shade of shortlist value.
Finally I want to take on Blackburn’s defence on the road with an over 2.5 goal line involving their trip to Fulham. 79% of all their away games have gone overs and they will miss captain Ryan Nelson this weekend. It’s a shortlist bet as Fulham are not the most adventurous team so does depend on how Mark Hughes approaches the game.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Bolton V Aston Villa. 2.03 188bet
1 pt Man City -1.25 Asian Handicap V Wigan. 1.90 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Wolves V Spurs. 2.10 Pinnacle/Paddy
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Blackburn. 2.16 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Liverpool 0 Asian Handicap V Man Utd. 2.09 Pinnacle
1 pt Birmingham -0.25 Asian Handicap V West Brom. 2.08 Bet365/12Bet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike