Finding The Best Tipsters: Why Observing Odds Movement Matters

Continuing our recent theme of helping YOU ‘Find The Best Tipsters’ that are out there, this week my attention turns to the thorny subject of odds availability.

If you haven’t really thought about this before, then stand up and take note!! This is a massive issue for anyone following a tipster, because if you can’t get the odds advised (and more importantly the odds that results are settled to) then what is the point?

It’s something that trips up many a novice  punter who joins a service based on outstanding results, only to then find that you can’t actually get the odds they suggest.

Pricewise…But Not Oddswise

An example of one such tipster that has dire odds availability is that of ‘Pricewise Extra’ from the Racing Post. So much so, that we have even stopped tracking their results as they were just so impractical to obtain (making it a fairly pointless exercise).

For those that don’t know, Pricewise Extra is the subscription based tipping arm of the Pricewise column made so famous by the Racing Post and between October 2009 and November 2012 we tracked each of their advised tips.

There were 1273 bets during this period and results wise, we calculated a profit of 297 pts to advised prices, yet at SP, this became a -127 pt loss. Thus indicating the odds shortened significantly throughout the day and a very popular service that clearly moves betting markets.

The key question therefore was – Are the odds they settle results to fair and indicative of what punters can achieve?

Sadly, this wasn’t the case with the advised odds being snaffled quickly and no inclination given to settle results at a lower, fairer and more available price. Therefore the profits being claimed were not at all representative of the real-world returns that followers of the service achieved.

It should be noted that any service such as Pricewise, where the bookies actually tell the tipster the race he should bet on (as Tom Segal revealed in the recent book on the service) is always likely to be doomed when it comes to  odds! Read more on this in our review here.

Tipster Odds Availability Tracking

The way we try and tackle this topic here at SBC is by tracking the odds movement on the tipsters we review and monitor.

You can see an example of our odds availability tracking on page 16 & 17 of the free SBC sample magazine you can download here.

To quickly summarise this, it features our review of a profitable horse racing service and just how much their advised odds moved over time.

To gauge this we brought in a member of our ‘testing team’ who tracked the odds they were able to get on the advised bets, plus those 1 hour later and at SP and Betfair SP.  The tester tracked over 1200 bets for 2 months to get a good representation…the results are as below.

What this analysis revealed is that the tester following this service, was able to nearly mimic the advised profits – achieving a 120.69 pt profit in comparison to the 127.74 pts being claimed.

However more interestingly, it was evident that these returns could only be achieved IF punters were able to place bets relatively quickly and that waiting 1 hour or placing at Betfair SP or SP was not ideal.  Not a service suitable to all, but for those of you ready and willing to place bets each morning – certainly a real option.

Any Serious Tipster MUST Confront Odds Availability

We recognise that it isn’t always possible to perform such in-depth odds testing on any tipster, but it is well worth asking the question “Just how available are your odds” before considering following anyone’s tips.

The best tipsters will always have considered this topic and if they are serious about what they do, will have a policy on odds settlement that is fair to their members.

Two good examples of fair settlements include:

  • The non-league football tipster that settles bets at the best odds available 5 minutes after he sends out his tips;
  • Another football tipster who settles bets at odds from just 5 different high street bookmakers (meaning you can often vastly improve your results if using the likes of Pinnacle).

The SBC Odds Availability Rating

Here at SBC we apply an ‘odds availability’ rating to every service we review and monitor to help you find those services that are the easiest to follow.

We update these ratings regularly to keep you on top of their latest activity and also produce a ‘Best Odds Availability’ Table in our regular Tipster Profit Reports, featuring the most profitable and easiest to follow tipsters.

Sign-up to the Smart Betting Club today and gain instant access to all of our in-depth tipster analysis and much more besides…

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Best regards,

Peter – SBC Editor

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