Castrol ratings – How do they stack up?

Posted on June 21, 2010 by Dan

Before the world cup started, there were myriad of predictions put forward from various stats based models. The one that really caught my eye was the Castrol Ratings System which takes into account the overall impact an individual player has on each game. It not only scores players based on the accuracy of the passes, it also grades those scores based on where the pass took place on the field.

The ratings for individual players are then combined to give team ratings, which are then used to give a % chance probability of a certain match outcome.

But are the ratings any good?

Let’s put them to the test….

The Castrol ratings for Tuesday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet.

Green means value. Red means no value.

1. Mexico vs Uruguay

Mexico: 33% Chance -> Value odds: 3.03 -> Best odds 4.1 (Pinnacle)
Draw: 26% Chance -> Value odds: 3.85 -> Best odds 1.84 (Bet Chronicle)
Uruguay: 41% Chance -> Value odds: 2.44 -> Best odds 4.6 (Pinnacle)

If this were a competitive match, Uruguay would stand the best chance of winning according to the ratings, but this isn’t really a competitive match. Both teams need just draw to qualify which is why the draw odds are so low.

Probably one to avoid, but the best bet for an interest going by the ratings might be to back Uruguay with the (0) handicap which returns stakes if there is a draw. Best odds on the (0) handicap are with SBO bet at 2.10. The pure value play would be the Double Chance on Mexico and Uruguay (i.e. a result) Best odds for this are 2.10 with Unibet.

2. France vs South Africa

France: 25% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86-> Best odds 2.38 (188bet)
Draw: 37% Chance -> Value odds: 2.7 -> Best odds 3.4 (Ladbrokes)
South Africa: 28% Chance -> Value odds: 3.57 -> Best odds 3.31 (Pinnacle)

There’s value in the draw according to the Castrol ratings. It could be another funny match with both teams out barring a set of weird results. France should win this given their talent, but the team’s discord makes England’s clear the air talks look like a lover’s tiff. South Africa will be motivated to go out with a bang. Probably one to avoid, but according to the ratings, backing the draw at 3.4 is the value bet.

3. Greece vs Argentina

Greece: 14% Chance -> Value odds: 7.14-> Best odds 6.6(SBO)
Draw: 22% Chance -> Value odds: 4.55 -> Best odds 3.93 (Pinnacle)
Argentina: 64% Chance -> Value odds: 1.56 -> Best odds 1.64 (Pinnacle)

According to the ratings there’s shade of value in Argentina at 1.64. In reality it depends if the tactical genius that is Diego Maradona decides to rest some players.

4. Nigeria vs South Korea

Nigeria: 34% Chance -> Value odds: 2.94-> Best odds 3.07 (Pinnacle)
Draw: 36% Chance -> Value odds: 2.78 -> Best odds 3.93 (Pinnacle)
South Korea: 30% Chance -> Value odds: 3.33 -> Best odds 2.6 (Ladbrokes)

Nigeria are out, but playing for African pride, while South Korea are odds on to qualify. According to Castrol there is value in the draw and Nigeria. A good way to play this would be to cover both value outcomes with a draw no bet, or zero handicap. The best odds on offer for this are with the (0) handicap with SBObet at 2.21, though you can get 2.29 by creating your own DNB from the best win and draw odds.Might also be worth the +0.5 handicap for Nigeria at 1.60.

I’ll try to update and record the ratings for other matches as the tournament goes progresses.

Dan

26 pts profit from Free SBC system

Posted on June 14, 2010 by Mike

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Known website snags

Posted on May 28, 2010 by

Welcome to the blog. We’ll be adding to this in the coming days and weeks.

This first post will be used to track and report on any snags we know about with the new website.

Please check here first to see if it has already been reported and if not, please email the problem to us at info@smartbettingclub.com or write a comment below.

Known issues so far:

Blog:

1. You have to log in again to access the blog’s members only posts. You can’t currently make comments and the direct post link isn’t working. We’re working on this.

Content:

1. When you attempt to access some articles such as “coco tips” you will get a message that you need to join money maker review. This should be fixed in the coming weeks. To access the article you want put its name into the search box, from there you’ll find the related articles.

Login problems:

1. You can log into the main site but not the forum and vice versa.

This seems to be happening because the main site is remembering your login to log you automatically, but the forum isn’t. To get around this, log out of the main site then log back in.

Solution 1)

Make sure you are logging in at the correct location:

Main site: www.smartbettingclub.com/info

Forum: https://smartbettingclub.com/forum/

Solution 2)

Try logging into the following box instead of the main site directly.