Uncategorized

Mike's Football Bets 3rd February

Posted on by Mike

I want to get my bets in early this weekend as I am concerned that my best value bets often seem to diminish in price over time, which is a pattern I have spotted of late.

Value wise, the overs market in the game between the Hammers and the Brummies looks to be fantastic.  Consider that in the past 2 seasons, West Hams home games have gone overs 60% and Birmingham’s away games 63%, you would think the odds would reflect that. Not so as you can get 2.12 from Pinnacle which equates the chance of 3 or more goals as 47.16%, when the stats say differently. Logically as well West Ham have a leaky defence and Birmingham nowhere near as solid as last year either.

Man City are also under-rated against West Brom, who are another side struggling at the back and I can’t see them coping with the movement from Silva, Tevez and Dzeko. I expect an easy home win here and the 1.79 from 12Bet on City to overcome the -1 Asian Handicap jumps out.

As Harry Redknapp love to say, Spurs are down to the ‘bare bones’ and it’s no surprise to see them struggle creatively midweek with the likes of Bale, Modric and Pienaar all out. This season both Spurs at home and Bolton away have gone under 2.5 goals in 67% of games and with Bolton’s strikers also far from prolific recently, I think the odds of 2.05 on less than 3 goals is too big.

One team that doesn’t struggle to score is Arsenal and they have gone overs 58% of the time away from home, whereas Newcastle have a 67% record at St James Park. This makes sense as with 50,000 Geordies willing you on, they have to attack teams and I expect Arsenal to find plenty of space to exploit. The 1.90 on over 2.5 goals is my final main bet.

Elsewhere, 2 shortlist bets and I am taking Villa to continue their recent improvement against a Fulham side that will go for the draw so the -0.25 handicap offers some appeal here. Chelsea should also have far too much against a better looking Liverpool team, who will be really tested at the back against Torres, Drogba, Anelka et al. On there day these 3 will eat the likes of Kygriakos for breakfast and I fancy a home win here. Not great value in the odds so just a shortlist bet.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Birmingham. 2.12 Pinnacle
1 pt Man City -1 Asian Handicap V West Brom. 1.79 12Bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Arsenal. 1.90 Pinnacle
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Spurs V Bolton. 2.05 12Bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Aston Villa -0.25 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 1.77 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap V Liverpool. 1.78 10Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

 

 

 

Mike’s Football Bets 3rd February

Posted on by Mike

I want to get my bets in early this weekend as I am concerned that my best value bets often seem to diminish in price over time, which is a pattern I have spotted of late.

Value wise, the overs market in the game between the Hammers and the Brummies looks to be fantastic.  Consider that in the past 2 seasons, West Hams home games have gone overs 60% and Birmingham’s away games 63%, you would think the odds would reflect that. Not so as you can get 2.12 from Pinnacle which equates the chance of 3 or more goals as 47.16%, when the stats say differently. Logically as well West Ham have a leaky defence and Birmingham nowhere near as solid as last year either.

Man City are also under-rated against West Brom, who are another side struggling at the back and I can’t see them coping with the movement from Silva, Tevez and Dzeko. I expect an easy home win here and the 1.79 from 12Bet on City to overcome the -1 Asian Handicap jumps out.

As Harry Redknapp love to say, Spurs are down to the ‘bare bones’ and it’s no surprise to see them struggle creatively midweek with the likes of Bale, Modric and Pienaar all out. This season both Spurs at home and Bolton away have gone under 2.5 goals in 67% of games and with Bolton’s strikers also far from prolific recently, I think the odds of 2.05 on less than 3 goals is too big.

One team that doesn’t struggle to score is Arsenal and they have gone overs 58% of the time away from home, whereas Newcastle have a 67% record at St James Park. This makes sense as with 50,000 Geordies willing you on, they have to attack teams and I expect Arsenal to find plenty of space to exploit. The 1.90 on over 2.5 goals is my final main bet.

Elsewhere, 2 shortlist bets and I am taking Villa to continue their recent improvement against a Fulham side that will go for the draw so the -0.25 handicap offers some appeal here. Chelsea should also have far too much against a better looking Liverpool team, who will be really tested at the back against Torres, Drogba, Anelka et al. On there day these 3 will eat the likes of Kygriakos for breakfast and I fancy a home win here. Not great value in the odds so just a shortlist bet.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Birmingham. 2.12 Pinnacle
1 pt Man City -1 Asian Handicap V West Brom. 1.79 12Bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Arsenal. 1.90 Pinnacle
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Spurs V Bolton. 2.05 12Bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Aston Villa -0.25 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 1.77 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap V Liverpool. 1.78 10Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

 

 

 

Mike's Football Bets 2nd February

Posted on by Mike

Mike’s Football Bets

The over 2.5 goals market was good to us just over 10 days ago and once again I have spotted a couple of games where I feel the odds on offer are out of sync.

It might be no surprise that I am tempted by the over 2.5 goals market in the Blackpool – West Ham game. The reverse fixture between these 2 earlier in the season somehow finished 0-0 in a game of so many missed chances it would make Ronnie Rosenthal blush (check out this beauty). Blackpool have gone overs in 100% of all home games whilst the Hammers have done so in 58% of all away fixtures. Both teams have strengthened their attack in the transfer window but have not addressed their Achilles heels – their leaky defences. Despite this fact, Stan James are offering 1.73 in this market (57.8% chance) so clear value here.

Fulham are also a team often under-estimated in their ability to score goals and it’s the same again as they are priced up at 2.25 in the over 2.5 goals market against Newcastle. I really rate the Cottagers forward line with Moussa Dembele and Andy Johnson back fit and Clint Dempsey continuing to shine. The shaky Geordie defence could be in trouble here. Fulham have gone overs in 50% of home games, and Newcastle 45% of away games, which suggests odds of 2.10 would be fair, so the 2.25 is clear value again. I was close to advising a bet on Fulham to win but at 2.10 as well so a home victory wouldn’t surprise me.

Shortlist bet wise, I also want to back both Liverpool and Bolton to continue their generally good home form against two teams who really struggle on the road. With so much change at Liverpool of concern to me and lower odds on Bolton than I would like, they just fall short of being Main bets but I believe both offer value.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Blackpool V West Ham. 1.73 Stan James
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Newcastle. 2.25 Canbet/SBOBet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Liverpool -0.75 Asian Handicap. 1.84 Stan James
1 pt Bolton to beat Wolves. 1.88 5Dimes/Pinnacle/12Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike’s Football Bets 2nd February

Posted on by Mike

Mike’s Football Bets

The over 2.5 goals market was good to us just over 10 days ago and once again I have spotted a couple of games where I feel the odds on offer are out of sync.

It might be no surprise that I am tempted by the over 2.5 goals market in the Blackpool – West Ham game. The reverse fixture between these 2 earlier in the season somehow finished 0-0 in a game of so many missed chances it would make Ronnie Rosenthal blush (check out this beauty). Blackpool have gone overs in 100% of all home games whilst the Hammers have done so in 58% of all away fixtures. Both teams have strengthened their attack in the transfer window but have not addressed their Achilles heels – their leaky defences. Despite this fact, Stan James are offering 1.73 in this market (57.8% chance) so clear value here.

Fulham are also a team often under-estimated in their ability to score goals and it’s the same again as they are priced up at 2.25 in the over 2.5 goals market against Newcastle. I really rate the Cottagers forward line with Moussa Dembele and Andy Johnson back fit and Clint Dempsey continuing to shine. The shaky Geordie defence could be in trouble here. Fulham have gone overs in 50% of home games, and Newcastle 45% of away games, which suggests odds of 2.10 would be fair, so the 2.25 is clear value again. I was close to advising a bet on Fulham to win but at 2.10 as well so a home victory wouldn’t surprise me.

Shortlist bet wise, I also want to back both Liverpool and Bolton to continue their generally good home form against two teams who really struggle on the road. With so much change at Liverpool of concern to me and lower odds on Bolton than I would like, they just fall short of being Main bets but I believe both offer value.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Blackpool V West Ham. 1.73 Stan James
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Newcastle. 2.25 Canbet/SBOBet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Liverpool -0.75 Asian Handicap. 1.84 Stan James
1 pt Bolton to beat Wolves. 1.88 5Dimes/Pinnacle/12Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike’s Football Bets 1st February

Posted on by Mike

Tackling the 4 games for tonight in this update and will be back tomorrow with my thoughts and bets on Wednesdays matches.

Just the 1 bet this evening, where I feel Sunderland are under-rated against a Chelsea side no doubt buoyed by the signings of Torres & Luiz. Of course they won 4-0 away at Bolton last time out but their opponents that day were very poor and Sunderland should offer much more resistance.

I had originally planned to advise the +1 Asian Handicap on Sunderland as a main bet at 1.82 but the price on this market has folded into 1.67 this morning, so only a shortlist bet on the +0.75 AH at 2.03 with Stan James.

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Sunderland +0.75 Asian Handicap. 2.03 Stan James

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike's Football Bets 1st February

Posted on by Mike

Tackling the 4 games for tonight in this update and will be back tomorrow with my thoughts and bets on Wednesdays matches.

Just the 1 bet this evening, where I feel Sunderland are under-rated against a Chelsea side no doubt buoyed by the signings of Torres & Luiz. Of course they won 4-0 away at Bolton last time out but their opponents that day were very poor and Sunderland should offer much more resistance.

I had originally planned to advise the +1 Asian Handicap on Sunderland as a main bet at 1.82 but the price on this market has folded into 1.67 this morning, so only a shortlist bet on the +0.75 AH at 2.03 with Stan James.

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Sunderland +0.75 Asian Handicap. 2.03 Stan James

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike’s Football Bets 28th January

Posted on by Mike

No bets in the Premier League this weekend as the FA Cup action dominates, although I will be posting some bets early next week as there is a full card of games midweek to look forward to. Be sure to check the SBC Blog for full details.

I find the FA Cup a very tricky competition to bet upon, due to the amount of uncertainty about the strength of sides being put out these days.  For example – are Birmingham a worthy bet at 1.80 at home to Coventry? They already are in the Carling Cup final and with a relegation dogfight looming I can see a less than enthused showing from them. It would only be total guesswork if placing a bet I feel.

Still the blank weekend gives the chance to re-cap on how the season is going and January has continued recent good form making 3.10 pts from 9 pts staked. This takes the seasonal tally to 8.49 pts profit from 75 pts staked at an ROI (Return of Investment) of 11.33%.

Month

Bets

Stakes

Profit

ROI

Aug-10

9

4.5

-1.54

-34.22%

Sep-10

8

9

0.53

5.89%

Oct-10

15

13.5

-1.585

-11.74%

Nov-10

22

23

5.32

23.13%

Dec-10

15

15.5

2.665

17.19%

Jan-11

9

9.5

3.105

32.68%

Total

78

75

8.49

11.33%

 

The table above includes 9 ante-post bets and if the league finished today it would generate a further 2.88 pts profit from them. I will be continuing to monitor all ante-post action and will supply additional bets to lock in profit, should opportunities arise.

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike's Football Bets 28th January

Posted on by Mike

No bets in the Premier League this weekend as the FA Cup action dominates, although I will be posting some bets early next week as there is a full card of games midweek to look forward to. Be sure to check the SBC Blog for full details.

I find the FA Cup a very tricky competition to bet upon, due to the amount of uncertainty about the strength of sides being put out these days.  For example – are Birmingham a worthy bet at 1.80 at home to Coventry? They already are in the Carling Cup final and with a relegation dogfight looming I can see a less than enthused showing from them. It would only be total guesswork if placing a bet I feel.

Still the blank weekend gives the chance to re-cap on how the season is going and January has continued recent good form making 3.10 pts from 9 pts staked. This takes the seasonal tally to 8.49 pts profit from 75 pts staked at an ROI (Return of Investment) of 11.33%.

Month

Bets

Stakes

Profit

ROI

Aug-10

9

4.5

-1.54

-34.22%

Sep-10

8

9

0.53

5.89%

Oct-10

15

13.5

-1.585

-11.74%

Nov-10

22

23

5.32

23.13%

Dec-10

15

15.5

2.665

17.19%

Jan-11

9

9.5

3.105

32.68%

Total

78

75

8.49

11.33%

 

The table above includes 9 ante-post bets and if the league finished today it would generate a further 2.88 pts profit from them. I will be continuing to monitor all ante-post action and will supply additional bets to lock in profit, should opportunities arise.

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike’s Football Bets 24th January

Posted on by Mike

Two out of three Main bets came in this weekend and if Bolton can hold off Chelsea tonight, it will add to what has already been an excellent January. Today just a quick update as I have one more bet for the midweek round of games.

I managed to catch the Blackpool – Sunderland game and as usual it was end to end stuff with the home side ending up with 5 strikers on the pitch as they strove for an equalizer. It’s the only way this team play and if they do that against a team of the quality of Man Utd, they have the forward players to make them pay. This should be an excellent game and my calculations indicate value in the over 2.75 goals line at 1.78. In general Man Utd against the lower half teams have a high percentage of games over 3 goals and as we know Blackpool have been over 2.5 goals in 100% of all home games this season. 33% of those home games have gone 4 goals or more and I anticipate the same again here

You can also get 11/10 and evens on Rooney and Berbatov as anytime goalscorers respectively. Two equally not bad looking bets either.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.75 goals. Blackpool V Man Utd. 1.78 Canbet/SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike's Football Bets 24th January

Posted on by Mike

Two out of three Main bets came in this weekend and if Bolton can hold off Chelsea tonight, it will add to what has already been an excellent January. Today just a quick update as I have one more bet for the midweek round of games.

I managed to catch the Blackpool – Sunderland game and as usual it was end to end stuff with the home side ending up with 5 strikers on the pitch as they strove for an equalizer. It’s the only way this team play and if they do that against a team of the quality of Man Utd, they have the forward players to make them pay. This should be an excellent game and my calculations indicate value in the over 2.75 goals line at 1.78. In general Man Utd against the lower half teams have a high percentage of games over 3 goals and as we know Blackpool have been over 2.5 goals in 100% of all home games this season. 33% of those home games have gone 4 goals or more and I anticipate the same again here

You can also get 11/10 and evens on Rooney and Berbatov as anytime goalscorers respectively. Two equally not bad looking bets either.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.75 goals. Blackpool V Man Utd. 1.78 Canbet/SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike