It is often said that the quickest route to the poorhouse is to chase your losses backing unraced two year old horses on their debuts. It is a good point well made, but that doesn’t mean you should dismiss inexperienced thoroughbreds entirely.

It is well known that the biggest improvement that these youngsters make comes with their second run and I’ve lost count of the times I’ve made a profit from following the hype when a highly rated flop first time out reappears on the racetrack.

The way to uncover these hidden gems is through scouring the forecast prices in your morning paper and looking for horses that have been listed with a projected price of 8/1 – 10/1 in the morning only to be gambled into 4/1 or less by race time.

There is a great example of this angle today in the form of Police force in Ascot’s 245 today. After a moderate first run I’d have expected this one to be quoted at 10/1+. However it has been gambled today and could well be nearer 4/1 by the off. Someone is clearly happy to ignore the first run, taking the view that the horse has greatly improved for its debut and when you see that happening I think it is an angle you should always take notice of. This is one occasion where the market is clearly giving you a big hint and this is a strategy you can use again and again.

Continue reading →

It is often said that the quickest route to the poorhouse is to chase your losses backing unraced two year old horses on their debuts. It is a good point well made, but that doesn’t mean you should dismiss inexperienced thoroughbreds entirely.

It is well known that the biggest improvement that these youngsters make comes with their second run and I’ve lost count of the times I’ve made a profit from following the hype when a highly rated flop first time out reappears on the racetrack.

The way to uncover these hidden gems is through scouring the forecast prices in your morning paper and looking for horses that have been listed with a projected price of 8/1 – 10/1 in the morning only to be gambled into 4/1 or less by race time.

There is a great example of this angle today in the form of Police force in Ascot’s 245 today. After a moderate first run I’d have expected this one to be quoted at 10/1+. However it has been gambled today and could well be nearer 4/1 by the off. Someone is clearly happy to ignore the first run, taking the view that the horse has greatly improved for its debut and when you see that happening I think it is an angle you should always take notice of. This is one occasion where the market is clearly giving you a big hint and this is a strategy you can use again and again.

Continue reading →

If we are to take a lesson from a very low key sporting week it is that patience is really has to be one of the key betting virtues.

As punters we all want to win every week and see the bank balance ticking upwards. When there’s nothing doing we want to force the pace and when results don’t fall our way we want to tinker and change things because we believe we must be doing something wrong. Learning from mistakes is important, and something we should never shy away from, but drawing wrong conclusions either from insufficient evidence or from a diet of poor betting fare is a fault we all inherently have.

The key thing to remember about your betting is to remember that if your approach was the right thing to do a week ago, or a month ago, it is probably still the right thing to do now.

Continue reading →

If we are to take a lesson from a very low key sporting week it is that patience is really has to be one of the key betting virtues.

As punters we all want to win every week and see the bank balance ticking upwards. When there’s nothing doing we want to force the pace and when results don’t fall our way we want to tinker and change things because we believe we must be doing something wrong. Learning from mistakes is important, and something we should never shy away from, but drawing wrong conclusions either from insufficient evidence or from a diet of poor betting fare is a fault we all inherently have.

The key thing to remember about your betting is to remember that if your approach was the right thing to do a week ago, or a month ago, it is probably still the right thing to do now.

Continue reading →