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Mike's Football Bets 15th February

Posted on by Mike

As I suggested, it was a tough weekend of betting in the Premier League just gone with a 2 pt loss for the Main bets as Blackpool – Villa ended up 1-1 and Sunderland let a lead slip against Spurs. The seasonal tally has now dropped to 5.91 pts and a 7.13% ROI so work to be done on that front, although of course profitable betting is a marathon not a sprint so everything in its right context.

A neat reminder if one were needed however that my bets are for the best part, an experiment this season. Consider it an exercise in exploring profitability in these markets – certainly don’t judge the quality of my tips against the quality of the tipsters we focus on here at SBC. They are completely separate.

One bet that I kicked myself for not having as a Main bet last weekend was on Birmingham at 1.78 to overcome a 0 ball Asian Handicap against Stoke (I only shortlisted it). They duly won 1-0 although my reasoning for not taking was down to a lack of value in the odds – something that is less the case in Birmingham’s next fixture tonight at home to Newcastle.

You can get 1.86 on Alex Mcleish’s men in the same market against the Geordies, who are for my mind, a slightly inferior team to Stoke. Newcastle are however a slight worry in that they are very much Jekyll and Hyde as we can never be certain which team will turn up. I am going to take the 1.86 on Birmingham however as they have a strong home record and are in a good vein of form.

Main Bets
1 pt Birmingham 0 Asian Handicap V Newcastle. 1.86 Canbet/SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

*Odds given were correct as time of bet release at the SBC Blog

Mike’s Football Bets 15th February

Posted on by Mike

As I suggested, it was a tough weekend of betting in the Premier League just gone with a 2 pt loss for the Main bets as Blackpool – Villa ended up 1-1 and Sunderland let a lead slip against Spurs. The seasonal tally has now dropped to 5.91 pts and a 7.13% ROI so work to be done on that front, although of course profitable betting is a marathon not a sprint so everything in its right context.

A neat reminder if one were needed however that my bets are for the best part, an experiment this season. Consider it an exercise in exploring profitability in these markets – certainly don’t judge the quality of my tips against the quality of the tipsters we focus on here at SBC. They are completely separate.

One bet that I kicked myself for not having as a Main bet last weekend was on Birmingham at 1.78 to overcome a 0 ball Asian Handicap against Stoke (I only shortlisted it). They duly won 1-0 although my reasoning for not taking was down to a lack of value in the odds – something that is less the case in Birmingham’s next fixture tonight at home to Newcastle.

You can get 1.86 on Alex Mcleish’s men in the same market against the Geordies, who are for my mind, a slightly inferior team to Stoke. Newcastle are however a slight worry in that they are very much Jekyll and Hyde as we can never be certain which team will turn up. I am going to take the 1.86 on Birmingham however as they have a strong home record and are in a good vein of form.

Main Bets
1 pt Birmingham 0 Asian Handicap V Newcastle. 1.86 Canbet/SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

*Odds given were correct as time of bet release at the SBC Blog

Mike's Football Bets 11th February

Posted on by Mike

Not the easiest looking betting fixtures this weekend in the top flight and just the 2 Main bets from me, starting off with the game at the Stadium of Light between Sunderland and Spurs.

Spurs have struggled lately with injuries to the creative hub of their team with the likes of Modric, Bale and now Van der Vaart all out. To make matters worse they face a very tricky fixture against Steve Bruce’s team who are very strong in general at home. The hosts to my mind continue to be under-rated and have won 6 out of 13 home fixtures, losing just twice to Chelsea and Blackpool. You can get 2.04 on them with a 0 ball Asian Handicap, which covers the draw and looks to be great value against a depleted Spurs outfit.

No matter what Ian Holloway does, his team cant stop leaking goals and to me it’s a simple case of not having the quality defensive personnel required to shut up shop. Attack for them is the best form of defence and the bookies continue to be very slow to cotton on to the chance of goals in their home games. All 11 tangerine games have gone 3 goals or more with 5 (45%) going 4 goals or more. They face Villa who have also seen 67% of their away games go over 3 goals so they aren’t exactly going to park the bus either.  I will take the 1.79 on over 2.75 goals in this market.

Aside from those 2 main bets, its hard work finding value this weekend and the 3 shortlist bets highlight this. Birmingham are very solid at home but the 1.78 0 AH is a bit short in price to be a main bet against a Stoke team who are improving but continue to struggle on the road in general.

Man City will be happy to draw away at Utd as it keeps them in the hunt for the top 4 spot (their ultimate goal this year – not the title) and so the 1.83 on less than 3 goals appeals as a shortlist bet. Fulham continue also to be under-rated goals wise at home and even though Chelsea were toothless last weekend, prior to that they had found their shooting boots. Hopeful of seeing some goalmouth action at Craven Cottage this weekend so over 2.5 goals is the call with stats backing this up as one to be on.

Main Bets
1 pt Sunderland 0 Asian Handicap V Spurs. 2.04 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.75 goals. Blackpool V Aston Villa. 1.79 5Dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Birmingham 0 Asian Handicap V Stoke. 1.78 Pinnacle/188bet
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Man Utd V Man City. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Chelsea. 2.08 188bet/Canbet/SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike’s Football Bets 11th February

Posted on by Mike

Not the easiest looking betting fixtures this weekend in the top flight and just the 2 Main bets from me, starting off with the game at the Stadium of Light between Sunderland and Spurs.

Spurs have struggled lately with injuries to the creative hub of their team with the likes of Modric, Bale and now Van der Vaart all out. To make matters worse they face a very tricky fixture against Steve Bruce’s team who are very strong in general at home. The hosts to my mind continue to be under-rated and have won 6 out of 13 home fixtures, losing just twice to Chelsea and Blackpool. You can get 2.04 on them with a 0 ball Asian Handicap, which covers the draw and looks to be great value against a depleted Spurs outfit.

No matter what Ian Holloway does, his team cant stop leaking goals and to me it’s a simple case of not having the quality defensive personnel required to shut up shop. Attack for them is the best form of defence and the bookies continue to be very slow to cotton on to the chance of goals in their home games. All 11 tangerine games have gone 3 goals or more with 5 (45%) going 4 goals or more. They face Villa who have also seen 67% of their away games go over 3 goals so they aren’t exactly going to park the bus either.  I will take the 1.79 on over 2.75 goals in this market.

Aside from those 2 main bets, its hard work finding value this weekend and the 3 shortlist bets highlight this. Birmingham are very solid at home but the 1.78 0 AH is a bit short in price to be a main bet against a Stoke team who are improving but continue to struggle on the road in general.

Man City will be happy to draw away at Utd as it keeps them in the hunt for the top 4 spot (their ultimate goal this year – not the title) and so the 1.83 on less than 3 goals appeals as a shortlist bet. Fulham continue also to be under-rated goals wise at home and even though Chelsea were toothless last weekend, prior to that they had found their shooting boots. Hopeful of seeing some goalmouth action at Craven Cottage this weekend so over 2.5 goals is the call with stats backing this up as one to be on.

Main Bets
1 pt Sunderland 0 Asian Handicap V Spurs. 2.04 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.75 goals. Blackpool V Aston Villa. 1.79 5Dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Birmingham 0 Asian Handicap V Stoke. 1.78 Pinnacle/188bet
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Man Utd V Man City. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Chelsea. 2.08 188bet/Canbet/SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike’s Football Bets 8th October

Posted on by Mike

It’s a blank weekend in the Premier League due to yet another International break, where we get to witness the somewhat dubious delights of Kevin Davies falling over in an England shirt. Surely he is destined to join the likes of Michael Ricketts in the one-cap wonder stakes!

With the break I have been delving into the Ante-post market, where all 5 of my current bets are winning. This is an area that can be very lucrative if you get it right and my goal here is to try and find a number of bets, which have been priced up more on a knee jerk reaction than stats. Take the head to head between Wigan and Wolves, where the former team where as big as 13/8 after just a couple of games. I made these two teams very similar and the odds have adjusted on Wigan down to 5/6. I will keep an eye on these odds as a further swing could see Wolves go out in price, meaning we can lock in definite profit here.

Speaking of Wolves they are now a best 5/1 to finish rock bottom this year, which may also be worth keeping an eye on. Last season they were the lowest scorers in the league and their goalie Hahnneman made the most saves of any keeper.

So what other teams are being judged on knee-jerk stats? Well the first team that jumps to mind is Liverpool who despite a dreadful few weeks are not as bad as some doom-mongers have them to be. Totesport have slashed them from 200/1 into 11/1 in the past week in the relegation market, which is frankly ridiculous! There is more chance of me winning Mr Universe than the reds going down this season.

One other market I am weighing up is the Top 6 finish and especially the 9/4 on Aston Villa to repeat their 6th spot from last year. Gerard Houllier is no mug and I think this is value compared to the best 11/8 on Liverpool and 2/1 on shot shy Everton to do the same.  One to watch for now.

One bet I am advising featuring Villa is for them to overcome a -12.5 pt handicap against rivals Birmingham at the end of the season, which you can get at 10/11 with VCBet. Last season Birmingham over-performed and still finished 14 pts behind the Villains. I expect Brum to hit around 45 pts this season, while Villa should get up to at least 60. A further 1 pt investment in this bet.

Latest Ante-Post Bet
1 pt Aston Villa -12.5 Handicap V Birmingham. 10/11 VCbet.

Existing Ante-Post Bets (already advised)
0.5 pt Stoke to finish in top half of table. 7/2 Ladbrokes
0.5 pt West Brom top newcomer 9/4 Ladbrokes
1 pt Sunderland to finish above Newcastle 3/4 Bwin
1 pt Blackpool to concede most goals this season 11/8 VCbet
1pt Wigan to finish above Wolves this season. 2.63 VCbet (Ante-post)

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike’s Football Bets 1st October

Posted on by Mike

One of my 2 main bets this weekend is on Birmingham who look to be priced wrongly at 2.08 with 188bet to overcome a 0 Asian Handicap against Everton. This is an effective draw-no-bet on them to continue their excellent home form against their out of sorts opponents. Everton actually haven’t been playing too badly – they just are so powder-puff up front that they couldn’t finish their tea. I expect resurgence from them soon but I doubt this will start this weekend although a draw is a possibility.

My second main bet was touch and go as I must admit I ummed and aaahed on whether or not to back Bolton at 2.07 with a 0.25 Asian Handicap away at West Brom. The Baggies are much improved but then so are the Trotters under Owen Coyle and I make them closer than the odds or stats indicate. Going against the crowd here but for a 1pt risk I am happy enough to do so and take on West Brom once again. A draw gives us a 0.5 pt profit and I hope the Baggies don’t go boing boing this weekend!

At White Hart Lane, Spurs host Villa in a game where two of the biggest excuse-laden managers in Redknapp and Houiller face up. If Villa win, expect Harry to bemoan his huge squad is ‘down to the bare bones’ while Houiller will claim his side have ‘turned the corner’. Betting wise the under 2.5 goals line appealed as in recent seasons Villa have gone under in most away games while Spurs keep it tight against the top teams. You can get 2.09 on this with 188bet, which indicates a 47.8% chance and I make it more like 55% so this is my one shortlist bet of the weekend.

Elsewhere I also considered Sunderland with a +0.75 AH at home to Man Utd, although with Ferdinand, Scholes & Fletcher back for the away team, they should be improved upon last weekend at Bolton.

Chelsea V Arsenal is the big game this Sunday and while I expect a home win, the best priced 1.76 on this with 188bet is short enough for me. The only angle I considered is the over 2.5 goals line at 1.9 with 188bet, which suggests a 52.6% chance and I make it slightly higher than that at around 55% minimum. Considering Arsenal’s two goalkeeping impersonators in Almunia and Flappyhandski and Chelsea’s usual attacking thrust at home, it could be an option. Not strong enough for a bet for me though.

Keep an eye on the Blackpool – Liverpool game as well this weekend as if Ian Holloway has any sense he will get his team stuck into Roy Hodgsons wobbling side from the off. You can get 28/1 on both HT/FT results of Blackpool/Liverpool and Blackpool/Draw, which could be worth a very speculative interest.

Main Bets
1 pt Birmingham (0 AH) V Everton.  2.08 188bet
1 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V West Brom. 2.07 Pinnacle

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Spurs – Villa. Under 2.5 goals. 2.09 188bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike