Mike’s Football Bets 1st October

One of my 2 main bets this weekend is on Birmingham who look to be priced wrongly at 2.08 with 188bet to overcome a 0 Asian Handicap against Everton. This is an effective draw-no-bet on them to continue their excellent home form against their out of sorts opponents. Everton actually haven’t been playing too badly – they just are so powder-puff up front that they couldn’t finish their tea. I expect resurgence from them soon but I doubt this will start this weekend although a draw is a possibility.

My second main bet was touch and go as I must admit I ummed and aaahed on whether or not to back Bolton at 2.07 with a 0.25 Asian Handicap away at West Brom. The Baggies are much improved but then so are the Trotters under Owen Coyle and I make them closer than the odds or stats indicate. Going against the crowd here but for a 1pt risk I am happy enough to do so and take on West Brom once again. A draw gives us a 0.5 pt profit and I hope the Baggies don’t go boing boing this weekend!

At White Hart Lane, Spurs host Villa in a game where two of the biggest excuse-laden managers in Redknapp and Houiller face up. If Villa win, expect Harry to bemoan his huge squad is ‘down to the bare bones’ while Houiller will claim his side have ‘turned the corner’. Betting wise the under 2.5 goals line appealed as in recent seasons Villa have gone under in most away games while Spurs keep it tight against the top teams. You can get 2.09 on this with 188bet, which indicates a 47.8% chance and I make it more like 55% so this is my one shortlist bet of the weekend.

Elsewhere I also considered Sunderland with a +0.75 AH at home to Man Utd, although with Ferdinand, Scholes & Fletcher back for the away team, they should be improved upon last weekend at Bolton.

Chelsea V Arsenal is the big game this Sunday and while I expect a home win, the best priced 1.76 on this with 188bet is short enough for me. The only angle I considered is the over 2.5 goals line at 1.9 with 188bet, which suggests a 52.6% chance and I make it slightly higher than that at around 55% minimum. Considering Arsenal’s two goalkeeping impersonators in Almunia and Flappyhandski and Chelsea’s usual attacking thrust at home, it could be an option. Not strong enough for a bet for me though.

Keep an eye on the Blackpool – Liverpool game as well this weekend as if Ian Holloway has any sense he will get his team stuck into Roy Hodgsons wobbling side from the off. You can get 28/1 on both HT/FT results of Blackpool/Liverpool and Blackpool/Draw, which could be worth a very speculative interest.

Main Bets
1 pt Birmingham (0 AH) V Everton.  2.08 188bet
1 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V West Brom. 2.07 Pinnacle

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Spurs – Villa. Under 2.5 goals. 2.09 188bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!