In today’s article I want to share a couple of betting articles I feel are of note and details on a recommended tipping service bang in form.
First of all, I wanted to share a link to this long but fascinating article on Bill Benter, titled ‘The Gambler Who Cracked The Horse Racing Code‘, as published by Bloomberg Businessweek.
Sharing his story for the first time ever, in this article you can get the full scoop on just why Bill is such a legend in betting circles, his ups and downs and just how he made his betting pay in the end.
Despite the headline behind this story being about the man ‘who cracked the horse racing code’ – through the article it’s clear how it wasn’t all plain sailing for Bill and his approach finally bore fruit after several years of trial and error.
His winning strategy was like almost all others, one based on ‘value betting‘ whereby he was able to successfully identify bets with a higher chance of winning then the odds available. Here is how the article explained it:
“[Bill had] A private system of odds that was slightly more accurate than the public odds. To simplify, imagine that the gambling public can bet on a given horse at a payout of 4 to 1. Benter’s model might show that the horse is more likely to win than those odds suggest—say, a chance of one in three. That means Benter can put less at risk and get the same return; a seemingly small edge can turn into a big profit.
High Volume & Patience
Now having an edge is one thing – making it pay on a regular basis is another as Bill knew he had to churn through enough bets on a daily basis to eliminate randomness as “The impact of bad luck can be diminished by betting thousands and thousands of times”
His ability therefore to back hundreds, if not thousands of bets in Hong Kong every day ensured this regular profit.
Now as fascinating and inspiring as Bill’s story undoubtedly is, it does raise the question as to exactly how we as punters can apply it to our own betting. Whilst none of us are likely to have the time or ability to place hundreds of bets every day as he did, there are some clear qualities that stand out, including that of patience.
His patience came more in the form of the time it took to build his profitable model in the first place, yet he clearly knew that betting for profit was about the long haul and not the short-term when it came to results.
And that ties into another article I wanted to highlight for you on the theme of patience and why its so important, especially as I feel that it is a lack of this quality which holds so many punters back with their betting. Click here to read it.
Like it or not – patience is fundamental whatever way you are attempting to make money – be it the stock market, bitcoin or anything else for that matter.
Punters without patience and those making knee-jerk decisions based on short-term form are ultimately those that only lose out – and that is something I wanted to help tackle and address through this article.
Don’t Go Overboard on Short-Term Form
The problems with a lack of patience jumped out at me again when I was updating the results from a greyhound tipster just the other day.
Since I first highlighted this service to SBC members on the 10th February, it has gone from strength to strength adding 119 points profit from 102 bets at 33.44% ROI over the last 3 months.
Taken as a whole, the service has thrived over this 3 month period, yet when you dig into the week by week results, a different pattern emerges.
For example, between the 18th February and 10th March, it actually lost 45 points over the course of 24 bets with just 5 winning during this period. Anyone who was a member then might well have wondered what all the fuss is about – and indeed I did receive a few emails querying this point during this period.
The reason why became clearer over the following 3 weeks as between the 11th and 31st March a profit of 82.29 points was made from the next 23 bets. Making back the earlier loss and then some.
Since the 1st April 2019, a further 60 points profit have been made from the most recent 47 bets to continue this good form. Fine figures but again only a short-term pattern and just as a few months back they were under-performing, lately, they have been over-performing.
What matters most of all is the long-term profit figures and an understanding of the edge any tipster has over the fullness of time. Which for this tipster stands at a 286 point profit from 475 bets at 22.84% ROI.
If this tipster interests you, then I would be happy to share details on it – drop me an email and I will send on information.
Guided By The Goal of Long-Term Profits
No-one can ever guarantee a profit over a small sequence of bets.
Bill Benter knew this – which is why he churned through so many bets everyday. He knew that taking 4/1 about a 3/1 chance would make him a profit long-term. It might take 20, 30, 50 even 100+ bets for this to come through over short-term patterns, but judged on significant data-sets, the edge would materialise.
And it is this point that guides us in our work exploring and recommending tipsters here at SBC.
Long-term profits are what matter and the ability to understand losses and place them in context is equally important. In fact, I would say its not just important, but absolutely crucial to anyone who wants to bet seriously for profit.
I hope you find this email useful and the various articles and links of note. If so, you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership and see how we can help you, like thousands of others before you improve your betting.
Until then, be lucky!
Smart Betting Club Editor
If you have any questions on this article or a Smart Betting Club membership in general, you can contact me directly via firstname.lastname@example.org. I respond to all emails as quickly as I can!