Month: November 2011

‘Plug & Play’ Strategies For Profitable Half Time Football Betting

Posted on by Mike

Hitting the ‘shelves’ today, we have our very latest Sports Betting magazine, the release of which means it’s a great time to join us at the Smart Betting Club as we continue to analyse the world of tipsters.

The latest mag includes reviews of a couple of exciting tipsters, alongside our unique ratings of all the best services that make up our Hall of Fame. All of which has been designed to help you follow the best tipsters and find out just who is in form.

This month we also have some ‘plug and play’ strategies for you to apply for Half-Time/Full-Time betting on football that are potentially very lucrative.

The full contents of our latest mag includes… Continue reading →

'Plug & Play' Strategies For Profitable Half Time Football Betting

Posted on by Mike

Hitting the ‘shelves’ today, we have our very latest Sports Betting magazine, the release of which means it’s a great time to join us at the Smart Betting Club as we continue to analyse the world of tipsters.

The latest mag includes reviews of a couple of exciting tipsters, alongside our unique ratings of all the best services that make up our Hall of Fame. All of which has been designed to help you follow the best tipsters and find out just who is in form.

This month we also have some ‘plug and play’ strategies for you to apply for Half-Time/Full-Time betting on football that are potentially very lucrative.

The full contents of our latest mag includes… Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Imperious Big Bucks Cashes In

Posted on by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

Carruthers provided a success for the underdog and horse racing itself when he bounced back to form to win the Hennessy Gold Cup. From the small Mark Bradstock yard, ridden by journeyman jockey Mattie Batchelor and owned by the Oaskseys who have done so much for the Injured Jockey Fund this was an inspiring success. Fitted with a tongue-tie for the first time the eight-year-old front-running Carruthers made a few early jumping errors (matched at 55 on Betfair) before settling into a rhythm and running on strongly to win by three-and-a-quarter lengths. Last season Carruthers was riddled with a virus but it was only two seasons ago the horse was fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Welsh National on December 27th may be his next aim. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Great Expectations In Hennessy

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott provides us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – including the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

Saturday witnesses one of the best races in the National Hunt calendar, The Hennessy Gold Cup over three-mile-two-furlongs at Haydock while at Newcastle the Fighting Fifth pays welcome to the return of Nicky Henderson’s Binocular.

Other equine stars running at the weekend are Big Bucks in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury and Peddlers Cross in a novice chase at Bangor though short prices will be the order of the day for those two.

Aiteenthirtythree with Ruby Walsh on board is shading market favouritism for the Hennessy at 11-2 in front of Great Endeavour and Wymott. The Hennessy has been a long term aim for Paul Nicholls’ charge and the Master of Ditcheat has a fine record in the race having won the event three times in the last ten years. Aiteenthirtythree has a great record at the Newbury track, successful on the last two occasions he has run there and will love the strong pace. Pin-fired after his final outing last term the concern at the price on offer is the seven-year-old has largely been winning in small fields and this race will be a different kettle of fish with eighteen horses set to go to post.

Second favourite is David Pipe’s Great Endeavour at 13-2. The seven-year-old gelding has taken rank as one of the top two and a half mile chasers following his win in the Paddy Power. The question is will he last home with his trainer himself saying “3m 2f might be a bit far”. The speed he showed in the aforementioned Paddy Power at Cheltenham is a worry over the longer distance yet his best run over hurdles came over the 3m 2f trip at Cheltenham in 2009 when third in a Listed event. I’m inclined to risk Great Endeavour having the engine to last out stamina wise and back him to obtain the big-race double. Continue reading →

Champions League Value Bets: Small Value In Man U Home Win.

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, but there just haven’t been enough major upsets.
Bets: 59
Profit/ loss: -25.34 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Man U vs Benfica: Man U 67.4% chance. Value with Man U.
  • Napoli vs Man City: Man City 45.6% chance. No value with Man City.
  • Arsenal vs Dortmund: Arsenal 45.2% chance. No value with Arsenal.
  • Bayer Leverkusen vs Chelsea: Chelsea 42.3% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings.

Here are all the games:

NB bets like Olympiakos & Draw mean the ratings find value in both the draw and the away side so both are backed using a bookmaker’s Double Chance. If a game is missing it means there is no value in any proposition.

Bet Ideas:

You can follow the value bets blindly or use them to inform your own betting. For example, Otelul are big value against United, but if the match were played 1000 times, they’d still only win a handful of times. Therefore you might want to pick and choose or use Asian Handicaps to level the playing field.

With this in mind, here are some of the bets that caught our eye:

  • Moscow Home Win @ 2.41 Pinnacle.
  • Otelul home (+0.25 handiap) @ 2.56 Pinnacle sports.
  • Apoel away (+1) @ 2.16 Pinnacle sports.
  • Bayer Leverkusen home (0) @ 2.53 Pinnacle sports.
  • Olympiakos away (+0.5) @ +2.42 SBO bet.
  • Real Madrid home (-2.75) @ 2.05 SBO bet.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Smart Betting Club. 

 

Sportsman Racing: Resurgent Star Too Short For King George

Posted on by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

For six minutes on Saturday race-fans were able to forget whip rules, lack of prize money and corruption charges as the imperious Kauto Star warmed the hearts of all who watched him triumph in the Betfair Chase. One of the sport’s greatest ever chasers, Kauto jumped magnificently before kicking for home to readily dismiss the challenges of Diamond Harry, Weird Al and Long Run to triumph by eight-lengths. The National Hunt trainers champion Paul Nicholls simply said “This is my proudest-ever moment”. Kauto Star has been cut to 11-2 from 16-1 for the King George VI Chase. That price is not for me though as it’s hard to see him taking part in five weeks time after such a strenuous effort here and he goes best when fresh. Long Run made a few jumping errors when finishing second, running 12lb below his best but will improve for his seasonal outing. Continue reading →

How To Avoid Odds-On Losers In-Running

Posted on by Mike

If you’ve ever gambled on a few horses, then at some point I’m sure you will have experienced the agony of your bet failing at the final hurdle. Your horse might be two lengths clear and you find yourself mentally counting the winnings, only for it to hit the last fence or run out of gas completely. You go from elation to defeat in a matter of seconds.

Is there anything you can do about it?

One popular option is to leave a lay bet in running on your horse via Betfair. For example, if you back a horse at 11.0 pre race, you might take some solace having your stake returned if the horse trades as low as 1.50 but doesn’t win.

Easy peasy right?

Unfortunately, like most things in life, it’s not that simple. The fact is that a horse going 1.50 or below in running on Betfair is more likely to win than it is to lose. If you simply hedge every horse you bet on by laying it on Betfair at around 1.50, you might find you are simply knocking off 0.5 points from all of your winners, which in the long run will cost your money not save it.

So when it comes to knowing when to hedge your bets on Betfair, there’s no substitute for doing your research. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: In It For The Long Run

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott provides us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – including the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

The £200,000 Betfair Chase is the feature race of a superb Saturday’s racing with this year’s renewal being well up to scratch hosting four of the first seven in the betting for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

There can be little argument that the best horse coming into the race is the 5-6 favourite Long Run. Nicky Henderson’s stable star is officially rated a mammoth 182 and has 11lb in hand, despite opposing four formidable rivals in a field of six. Still a youngster he has achieved so much already, dismantling the Cheltenham Gold Cup field by seven lengths, breaking the course record in the process and becoming the first six-year-old to win the race since Mill House in 1963. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Wishfull Thinking For Punters at Cheltenham

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott provides us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – including the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

It’s a cracker of a weekend with plenty of big names to enjoy, and Scott highlights his best value for 2 of the big races – the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial. He expects big things of Wishfull Thinking at 15/2 in the former, whilst Paul Nicholls runner ‘Hinterland’ is expected to make an impact in the latter. Also keep an eye out for Chicago Grey to take the 3m, 3f Handicap Chase and Fingal Bay in Saturday’s Grade 2 Novice Hurdle.

Racing has returned to Cheltenham with the three-day Open meeting and with it brings many big names from the jumping sphere to savour. On Saturday, jumping action also comes from Wincanton and Uttoxeter, whilst Lingfield hosts a fine card with two Listed races but the key meeting is of course at the home of the National Hunt.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is invariably one of the best-quality handicaps of the season and this year’s renewal is another cracker. Continue reading →

What The New Whip Rules Mean For Punters

Posted on by Mike

In this exclusive extract from our recently released Winter Annual, our columnist, Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman gives his personal view on the new whip rules and the threats and opportunities they provide.

If you enjoy this article, then you can pick up similar insight on further key betting topics for both Horse Racing and Sports Betting with a Smart Betting Club membership.

Introducing the New Whip Rules

Under the heading: RESPONSIBLE REGULATION: A REVIEW OF THE USE OF THE WHIP IN HORSERACING, The British Horseracing Authority has concluded its wide-ranging and detailed Review into the use of the whip in Racing, which first commenced in November 2010.

The report, Responsible Regulation: a Review of the use of the whip in Horseracing – has been published in full and is available here. The Review will lead to a significant tightening of the rules and penalties relating to the use of the whip by jockeys, as well as a renewed focus on jockey training, to ensure that the best equine welfare standards are maintained throughout the sport.

The new rules will have wide-ranging ramifications for everyone in racing but, as is our primary focus here at SBC, we are most concerned on the implications for those who seek to profit from betting on the sport.

What The New Whip Rules Could Mean For Punters
Continue reading →