If you’ve ever gambled on a few horses, then at some point I’m sure you will have experienced the agony of your bet failing at the final hurdle. Your horse might be two lengths clear and you find yourself mentally counting the winnings, only for it to hit the last fence or run out of gas completely. You go from elation to defeat in a matter of seconds.
Is there anything you can do about it?
One popular option is to leave a lay bet in running on your horse via Betfair. For example, if you back a horse at 11.0 pre race, you might take some solace having your stake returned if the horse trades as low as 1.50 but doesn’t win.
Easy peasy right?
Unfortunately, like most things in life, it’s not that simple. The fact is that a horse going 1.50 or below in running on Betfair is more likely to win than it is to lose. If you simply hedge every horse you bet on by laying it on Betfair at around 1.50, you might find you are simply knocking off 0.5 points from all of your winners, which in the long run will cost your money not save it.
So when it comes to knowing when to hedge your bets on Betfair, there’s no substitute for doing your research.
This is something we covered in the latest edition of the Smart Betting Club magazine. We review the latest addition to the ProForm Professional racing system builder which helps you to find which horses are more likely to ‘go close’ in running without actually winning.
As part of the review we show you just how often 1.01 shots fail to win as well as revealing the best and worse race courses for favourites staying the distance.
Horses for courses
As a sneak preview, here are the top five race courses for favourites winning after trading at 1.50 or below in running on Betfair:
A favourite trading at 1.50 should win 67% of the time, but at these race courses, the favourite actually wins over 72% of the time. There may be something about these courses that means that the favourite is more likely to stay the distance. If one of your horses is running at these courses and favourite, you might consider not putting on a hedge in running.
By contrast, in the edition, we also reveal the worst courses for favourites staying the distance. One of these courses is absolutely terrible for favourites hanging on to win after going 1.50 or below. At this particular racecourse favourites win just 59% of the time after going close. Certainly a venue when in play hedges might be useful.