No time to write any commentary this week but 5 bets to get stuck into this weekend.
Main Bets
1 pt Birmingham (-0.25 AH) V Newcastle. 2.11 Canbet/12bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Liverpool V Fulham. 2.17 Canbet/10bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Chelsea V Man Utd. 2.29 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Everton (+0.75 AH) V Man City. 2.02 Pinnacle
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Blackburn V West Ham. 1.95 Stan James
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
These are posted after kick off so today’s matches won’t be much use, but we’ve included all games for the record. All odds and qualifiers are based on pre match archived odds.
A quick update on the season so far and after last weekend my bets are 2.95 pts in profit from 53.5 pts staked so far since August (ROI of 5.51%) so hoping to up that in coming weeks and months. My staking this season has let me down the most as at flat 1 pt stakes, returns would actually be 4.87 pts up (9.10% ROI) and its something I am certainly looking at. The best news is that of my 9 ante-post bets, 6 are currently winning, which means a further 4.51 pts if it stays the same before the season is out.
We have seen a fair amount of goals in the Premier League this season and I see lots of value in 3 separate over 2.5 goals lines this weekend. My first bet is up at Bolton where my fave team this year host unconvincing travellers Blackburn in a local derby. Blackburn have gone overs in 59% of away games and Bolton in 63% of home games since last season and the odds of 1.98 suggest only a 50.7% chance of this happening again. Happy therefore to take the value on offer here.
Down at Craven Cottage, the odds of 2.35 on Fulham V Sunderland to see over 2.5 goals also looks too high. Looking at similar seasonal scoring stats, I make the % chance of overs to be 47% (about 2.12) and with Sunderland playing 3 up front they won’t be shy about getting forward. Fulham need to get 3 points as well so I can’t see them sitting back here either.
West Ham V Man City rounds off my overs bets this weekend as the Hammers have let in 3 goals or more in 63% of home games since last season. City whilst not prolific themselves should enjoy the woeful defending on offer from the home team, although the best odds of 2.04 are not huge so just a shortlist bet here.
My final main bet is similar to one I took in April last year, which won on Spurs with a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home against an out of form Chelsea. You can get 1.83 with Bet365 and considering Redknapp’s charges have lost just 3 home games in 2 seasons, Chelsea have their work cut out here. A draw gives us a 0.41 pt profit, but I can easily see all three points going to the tome team.
A couple of final shortlist bets too with Bolton to beat Blackburn at 2.14 and Villa to beat West Brom at 2.2. Both prices I feel should be closer to evens, although some concerns that the Bolton game is a local derby where form can go pear-shaped and Villa need to bounce back from 4 losses on the bounce.
Please note – my bets next week may only appear on Saturday morning. I will be posting them as usual on the SBC Blog.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Bolton V Blackburn. 1.98 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Fulham V Sunderland. 2.35 SBObet/12bet/canbet
1 pt Tottenham (+0.25 AH) V Chelsea. 1.83 Bet365/Betinternet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Bolton to beat Blackburn. 2.14 Pinnacle
1 pt Aston Villa to beat West Brom. 2.2 Boylesports
1 pt Over 2.5 goals West Ham V Man City. 2.04 Ladbrokes
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
A quick update on the season so far and after last weekend my bets are 2.95 pts in profit from 53.5 pts staked so far since August (ROI of 5.51%) so hoping to up that in coming weeks and months. My staking this season has let me down the most as at flat 1 pt stakes, returns would actually be 4.87 pts up (9.10% ROI) and its something I am certainly looking at. The best news is that of my 9 ante-post bets, 6 are currently winning, which means a further 4.51 pts if it stays the same before the season is out.
We have seen a fair amount of goals in the Premier League this season and I see lots of value in 3 separate over 2.5 goals lines this weekend. My first bet is up at Bolton where my fave team this year host unconvincing travellers Blackburn in a local derby. Blackburn have gone overs in 59% of away games and Bolton in 63% of home games since last season and the odds of 1.98 suggest only a 50.7% chance of this happening again. Happy therefore to take the value on offer here.
Down at Craven Cottage, the odds of 2.35 on Fulham V Sunderland to see over 2.5 goals also looks too high. Looking at similar seasonal scoring stats, I make the % chance of overs to be 47% (about 2.12) and with Sunderland playing 3 up front they won’t be shy about getting forward. Fulham need to get 3 points as well so I can’t see them sitting back here either.
West Ham V Man City rounds off my overs bets this weekend as the Hammers have let in 3 goals or more in 63% of home games since last season. City whilst not prolific themselves should enjoy the woeful defending on offer from the home team, although the best odds of 2.04 are not huge so just a shortlist bet here.
My final main bet is similar to one I took in April last year, which won on Spurs with a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home against an out of form Chelsea. You can get 1.83 with Bet365 and considering Redknapp’s charges have lost just 3 home games in 2 seasons, Chelsea have their work cut out here. A draw gives us a 0.41 pt profit, but I can easily see all three points going to the tome team.
A couple of final shortlist bets too with Bolton to beat Blackburn at 2.14 and Villa to beat West Brom at 2.2. Both prices I feel should be closer to evens, although some concerns that the Bolton game is a local derby where form can go pear-shaped and Villa need to bounce back from 4 losses on the bounce.
Please note – my bets next week may only appear on Saturday morning. I will be posting them as usual on the SBC Blog.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Bolton V Blackburn. 1.98 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Fulham V Sunderland. 2.35 SBObet/12bet/canbet
1 pt Tottenham (+0.25 AH) V Chelsea. 1.83 Bet365/Betinternet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Bolton to beat Blackburn. 2.14 Pinnacle
1 pt Aston Villa to beat West Brom. 2.2 Boylesports
1 pt Over 2.5 goals West Ham V Man City. 2.04 Ladbrokes
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
With snow falling all across the UK and horse racing only taking place at the likes of Kempton and Wolverhampton last week, no doubt many of you who enjoy betting on the sport of kings (like me) will have been kicking your heels in the past few days.
Whenever this happens I find it the perfect time for a bit of a catch-up and reflection on just how my own betting is going. Therefore I wanted to update you on the latest performance of the 9 top-rated racing tipsters that we monitor and report upon at the Smart Betting Club. To quickly re-cap, these 9 tipster services are all currently in our Hall of Fame – that is fully recommended by us as worth following with your own money.
You can find my original article on the racing tipster performance between January and October here and with the publication of our latest Smart Betting Club newsletter (#55 out last Tuesday), we have all the stats from November to share with you.
That leaves us with 11 full months of racing bets over all types of weather, courses and conditions to check out so let me show you the latest…
November at a Glance
First off a look at how these 9 recommended tipsters fared this November, which isn’t always the easiest of months given the transition from flat to jumps racing.
(Please note – the actual names of each tipster have been protected and are available to full SBC members only).
It was another profitable month, with 8 of the 9 services active (Service 3 resumed on the 1st of December) and 5 of these 8 making a profit. At £10 stakes, the return overall would have been £348.70, which converts to £3,487 at £100 a bet.
The standouts from November were Service’s 2, 4, 5 and 6 who all made a Return on Investment of 29% or more (this basically means that for every £100 staked, you win £29 profit). The biggest loss of the month came from Service’s 6 and 7 although as we will see shortly, they have been on fire for most of the year, so we can forgive them one bad month!
The Scores on the Doors
Of course, we should never read too much into just 1 month’s isolated performance figures as what matters most is that these services produce the goods over time.
Here at SBC we are only interested in those tipsters that can repeatedly make a profit for our members, year in, year out. Anyone can get lucky over a short space of time and bag a few winners, but real skill only becomes obvious over time.
On a side note, does anyone remember the test once carried out, which compared the performance of tips picked by uber-dodgy tipster Derek ‘Thommo’ Thompson against that of a tortoise? It’s become a bit of an urban myth but apparently the tortoise actually won, which just goes to prove the point about getting ‘lucky’ over a short number of bets.
With this in mind, check-out the long-term performance of all our 9 top-rated racing tipsters since the start of 2010.
Combined, these racing tipsters on the whole of performed very well, with a clear consistent profit from 7 of the 9 services. Each tipster has their own methodology, some advise multiple bets each day, some a handful each week and it goes to show there are many ways to skin a betting cat!
The only disappointments are Service 1 and 2, although both of these performed very well in 2009 and are perhaps best considered ‘very patient’ options. With a number of newly reviewed racing tipsters pushing hard for a Hall of Fame space, the pressure is on them to improve before too long.
Find Out More…
If you are keen to find out all the details on the 9 racing tipsters above, their identities and how you can start following them, all of this is available as a Smart Betting Club member.
We place thousands of pounds ourselves each week following these tipsters so as always we put our money where our mouth is.
Sign up for a Smart Betting Club membership here today and gain instant access to all our information.
Here are the latest value picks using Fink Tank’s ratings.
The column “Fink Tank” refers to Fink Tank’s predicted probability of a win. Click here for more details:
Long faces all round this week from an English point of view after losing out to the Russians in the World Cup bid. If you were of a cynical mindset you might wonder if the fact that Russia this week was quoted as being a “virtual mafia state with widespread corruption, bribery and protection rackets” made them so appealing to FIFA!? ….. I couldn’t possibly comment!
Still the World Cup for all its hype is a poor event from a value betting perspective (despite the billions traded on it) and in contrast the English Premier League continues to throw up what I feel are good value bets each weekend. None more so than this Monday with Aston Villa, who despite a run of losses lately have not been playing too badly and look to have a better chance than the odds suggest away at a Liverpool team minus Gerrard & Carragher. I can easily see Houllier’s return to Anfield ending in a draw and with a +1 Asian Handicap at 1.84, we can even lose by 1 goal and get our stake back. The pace of Young & Agbonlahor up against Kyrgiakos will certainly make for an interesting contest.
Birmingham may not be the prettiest team to watch (both stylistically and aesthetically – hello Lee Bowyer) but they are blooming hard to beat at home. They have lost just 2 out of 26 at St Andrews and will give visitors Spurs a run for their money, especially if the away team gift them a head start like in a number of recent games. The +0.5 at 1.82 with Pinnacle on Brum looks a cracking bet to my eyes.
It looks like there has been an over-reaction to West Ham’s 4-0 demolition of Man Utd in a game featuring enough defensive howlers to make Alan Hansen weep. It needs some context though as the United back-line was distinctly second-rate and Scotty Parker et al wont find the Sunderland backline quite so generous. On the road the Hammers have been abysmal and they have lost 61% of all games since the 09/10 season started. Sunderland on the contrary are very strong at home and I expect Messrs Welbeck, Gyan and Bent to continue West Ham’s travel sickness. The 1.91 on the Black Cats indicates they have a 52% chance of victory, which I make closer to 60% so real value there.
A few shortlist bets from this weekend including Arsenal to continue their goalscoring form and overcome a 1.75 handicap at home to Fulham. The only concern is which Arsenal show up as they are fast becoming a Jekyll and Hyde team, making them a punters nightmare.
Finally I have a shortlist bet on perennial faves Bolton who I fancy to go up against an unconvincing Man City side with a +1 Asian Handicap head-start.
Main Bets
1.5 pts Aston Villa (+1 AH) V Liverpool. 1.84 SBObet/12bet
1 pt Birmingham (+0.5 AH) V Spurs. 1.82 Pinnacle
1 pt Sunderland to beat West Ham. 1.91 Ladbrokes/Bluesq/Will Hill
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Arsenal (-1.75 AH) V Fulham. 2.10 Paddy Power
1 pt Bolton (+1 AH) V Man City. 1.95 Betinternet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
Long faces all round this week from an English point of view after losing out to the Russians in the World Cup bid. If you were of a cynical mindset you might wonder if the fact that Russia this week was quoted as being a “virtual mafia state with widespread corruption, bribery and protection rackets” made them so appealing to FIFA!? ….. I couldn’t possibly comment!
Still the World Cup for all its hype is a poor event from a value betting perspective (despite the billions traded on it) and in contrast the English Premier League continues to throw up what I feel are good value bets each weekend. None more so than this Monday with Aston Villa, who despite a run of losses lately have not been playing too badly and look to have a better chance than the odds suggest away at a Liverpool team minus Gerrard & Carragher. I can easily see Houllier’s return to Anfield ending in a draw and with a +1 Asian Handicap at 1.84, we can even lose by 1 goal and get our stake back. The pace of Young & Agbonlahor up against Kyrgiakos will certainly make for an interesting contest.
Birmingham may not be the prettiest team to watch (both stylistically and aesthetically – hello Lee Bowyer) but they are blooming hard to beat at home. They have lost just 2 out of 26 at St Andrews and will give visitors Spurs a run for their money, especially if the away team gift them a head start like in a number of recent games. The +0.5 at 1.82 with Pinnacle on Brum looks a cracking bet to my eyes.
It looks like there has been an over-reaction to West Ham’s 4-0 demolition of Man Utd in a game featuring enough defensive howlers to make Alan Hansen weep. It needs some context though as the United back-line was distinctly second-rate and Scotty Parker et al wont find the Sunderland backline quite so generous. On the road the Hammers have been abysmal and they have lost 61% of all games since the 09/10 season started. Sunderland on the contrary are very strong at home and I expect Messrs Welbeck, Gyan and Bent to continue West Ham’s travel sickness. The 1.91 on the Black Cats indicates they have a 52% chance of victory, which I make closer to 60% so real value there.
A few shortlist bets from this weekend including Arsenal to continue their goalscoring form and overcome a 1.75 handicap at home to Fulham. The only concern is which Arsenal show up as they are fast becoming a Jekyll and Hyde team, making them a punters nightmare.
Finally I have a shortlist bet on perennial faves Bolton who I fancy to go up against an unconvincing Man City side with a +1 Asian Handicap head-start.
Main Bets
1.5 pts Aston Villa (+1 AH) V Liverpool. 1.84 SBObet/12bet
1 pt Birmingham (+0.5 AH) V Spurs. 1.82 Pinnacle
1 pt Sunderland to beat West Ham. 1.91 Ladbrokes/Bluesq/Will Hill
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Arsenal (-1.75 AH) V Fulham. 2.10 Paddy Power
1 pt Bolton (+1 AH) V Man City. 1.95 Betinternet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike