A quick update on the season so far and after last weekend my bets are 2.95 pts in profit from 53.5 pts staked so far since August (ROI of 5.51%) so hoping to up that in coming weeks and months. My staking this season has let me down the most as at flat 1 pt stakes, returns would actually be 4.87 pts up (9.10% ROI) and its something I am certainly looking at. The best news is that of my 9 ante-post bets, 6 are currently winning, which means a further 4.51 pts if it stays the same before the season is out.
We have seen a fair amount of goals in the Premier League this season and I see lots of value in 3 separate over 2.5 goals lines this weekend. My first bet is up at Bolton where my fave team this year host unconvincing travellers Blackburn in a local derby. Blackburn have gone overs in 59% of away games and Bolton in 63% of home games since last season and the odds of 1.98 suggest only a 50.7% chance of this happening again. Happy therefore to take the value on offer here.
Down at Craven Cottage, the odds of 2.35 on Fulham V Sunderland to see over 2.5 goals also looks too high. Looking at similar seasonal scoring stats, I make the % chance of overs to be 47% (about 2.12) and with Sunderland playing 3 up front they won’t be shy about getting forward. Fulham need to get 3 points as well so I can’t see them sitting back here either.
West Ham V Man City rounds off my overs bets this weekend as the Hammers have let in 3 goals or more in 63% of home games since last season. City whilst not prolific themselves should enjoy the woeful defending on offer from the home team, although the best odds of 2.04 are not huge so just a shortlist bet here.
My final main bet is similar to one I took in April last year, which won on Spurs with a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home against an out of form Chelsea. You can get 1.83 with Bet365 and considering Redknapp’s charges have lost just 3 home games in 2 seasons, Chelsea have their work cut out here. A draw gives us a 0.41 pt profit, but I can easily see all three points going to the tome team.
A couple of final shortlist bets too with Bolton to beat Blackburn at 2.14 and Villa to beat West Brom at 2.2. Both prices I feel should be closer to evens, although some concerns that the Bolton game is a local derby where form can go pear-shaped and Villa need to bounce back from 4 losses on the bounce.
Please note – my bets next week may only appear on Saturday morning. I will be posting them as usual on the SBC Blog.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Bolton V Blackburn. 1.98 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Fulham V Sunderland. 2.35 SBObet/12bet/canbet
1 pt Tottenham (+0.25 AH) V Chelsea. 1.83 Bet365/Betinternet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Bolton to beat Blackburn. 2.14 Pinnacle
1 pt Aston Villa to beat West Brom. 2.2 Boylesports
1 pt Over 2.5 goals West Ham V Man City. 2.04 Ladbrokes
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike