The Complete Guide To General Election Betting

How To Bet On The General Election 2015

As we reach the 1st of May, the Premier League title is firmly in the hands of Chelsea. However, there is another betting market hotting up right now with all still to play for – The UK General election.

2015 is likely to be one of the tightest elections in living memory, so if you fancy a flutter you’ll need to be on your toes. This complete guide to betting on the general election 2015 breaks down the key markets, the latest odds and any value bets.

First let’s start with a look at the big picture.

1)  Horse Trading and Dodgy Deals

To understand the election – let’s break things down into key numbers:

• Seats required to form a majority government (no coalition): 326
• Bare minimum seats to form a government of any sort: 323
• Probability that there will be no majority government: 90%+!

In 2010, the Tories got over the 326 seat threshold (more than half the house) with the help of the Lib-Dems in a coalition. This time around however, not only are the Tories expected to fall short again, the Lib Dems are unlikely to gain enough seats to help them out. So – no overall majority.

No Overall Majority Implied Probability (Betfair Exchange Odds)

So what’s likely to happen?

Everything is still to play for, but the most likely outcome is for there to be a minority government. The government won’t have half the seats, but will get by with informal agreements with various parties for support on individual issues. The key will be to get enough support to pass a vote of no confidence.

As you can imagine, there will be lots of promises, deals and general shenanigans as parties jostle for power and influence.

So how have we come to this?

There are three big reasons for the potential spaghetti cluster fudge that UK politics are about to enter, all neatly summarised by this neat little chart from FiveThirtyEight.com.

UK Polls Over Time (via FiveThirtyEight.com)

Three key factors:

1. The Lib Dems Broke Promises – Well in the eyes of key voters, especially students, this is what happened. Either way, the number of Lib Dem seats is expected to plunge.

2. The rise of UKIP – In the last few years, UKIP have risen to take an increasing share of the vote initially from Tories, but also from Labour more recently. This share isn’t enough to see them win many seats (just two at recent estimates), but it is enough to nick votes from the Tories primarily.

3. Scottish Power! – Following the independence vote, the Scottish National Party are riding a wave of goodwill and are expected to secure 52/59 seats North of the Border. Many of the seats were former Labour Strongholds.

The SNP will be the third largest party in Parliament, but their role is likely to be complicated. They won’t form a coalition with the Tories and Labour have ruled out a coalition too due to negative feeling this creates in English voters.

So where do we find our value bets then?

2)  What Do the Betting Markets Say?

First let’s take a look at the key betting markets and the current favourite.

• Overall Majority: ‘No’ @ 1.13
• Most Seats: Conservatives @  1.32
• Next Prime Minister: Ed Miliband @ 1.62
• Next Government: Labour minority @ 2.78

There are many weird and wonderful markets that you can bet on, right down to betting on your individual constituency. Here’s the best place to find odds for the election 2015:

• Oddschecker – Leading odds comparison site.
• Betfair Exchange – The best odds and great for trading.
• Matchbook Exchange – Offering commission free betting on the election.

 What do the polls say?

One way to find value bets is to compare the latest betting odds to the national polls…However this doesn’t even come close to telling you half the story!