These days there is a huge amount of racing for us punters to tackle thanks to the seemingly ever increasing number of race meetings now taking place. Whether its low grade evening fare at Wolverhampton or the Cheltenham Gold Cup – there has never been more chances for racing fans to have a bet.
Yet does this increase in racing actually benefit us punters?
Or are we simply better off focusing on the higher grade meetings and leaving the low grade stuff behind? Effectively, operating like the Racing Post’s Pricewise tipping service.
They are the questions we recently posed as part of our analysis of a top racing tipster in our latest Tipster Profit Report, where our examination revealed a major profit boost simply by following his tips in the big meetings.
So startling where these findings that if following him in you could make nearly 3 times the percentage gain for around half the work, by betting only during the major racing Festivals and on Saturdays.
His record of a 25.5% ROI from 641 Festival bets alone would put him on a par with the lauded Pricewise service – and if following in, you might well stand a chance of getting the advised odds (something it’s almost impossible to do for Pricewise)
Interested? Thought so…Allow me to reveal more both on this theory of big meeting betting and the tipster in question.
Tipster In The Spotlight
The following stats were first put to SBC members in the January edition of our Tipster Profit Report via our regular spotlight feature. This honed in on one specific tipster service, where we had noted a clear trend from his tips in the big races.
To set the ground-work first of all, here are this tipsters basic stats across all races, where you can view his clear strategy of picking big priced bets. The average odds settle at 11.8 and there is a strike-rate of 12.7% long-term (roughly 1 in 8 win).
Between 2010 and 2013 he advised 2564 bets and made a profit of 633 pts to a Return on Investment of 16.7%. Some excellent stats as the table below indicates.
We then dug a little deeper and filtered out his results if they were advised during Festivals, non-festival Saturday races and ‘Other’ days.
The findings were revealing with the key figure to watch out for – the ROI (Return on Investment) which stands at just 9.2% for ‘Other’ racing compared to 25.5% for Festivals and 21.6% on Saturdays.
Remember the ROI effectively tells you how hard your money is working for you and represents the average profit set against your stakes so the higher the figure the better.
Following this tipster during Festivals your bottom-line ROI would be 2.7 times greater than if betting solely during the ‘Other’ race meetings. Even just following on Saturdays would see your ROI more than double itself.
A Different Class Tipster
This pattern also appeared when we separated out the profits from Class 1 racing against those in lower grade racing. Again we see a near doubling in ROI as over just 468 bets in Class 1 races you would have made a 26% ROI compared to 16.3% from 1625 in Other races. The latter figure isn’t at all bad (who wouldn’t mind 16.3% ROI!) but you might want to adjust your stakes accordingly for the stronger bets (Class 1)
Betting In Big Races
So there you have it – proof that for this particular tipster, your focus really should be on the high quality racing and ignoring those wet Wednesday Evenings at Wolverhampton!
For my money his service represents a better option that the likes of Pricewise, who may well make a good profit at advised prices, but very few people can obtain them realistically.
So based on these findings, should you simply stop betting on anything not billed as a ‘major race’?
Well, not quite as it should be noted that this analysis does only feature the performance from one admittedly good racing tipster so we would be wrong to assume this is always the case. Equally there are a number of very good tipsters who specialise at courses such as Kempton and Wolverhampton whom we proof here at SBC.
Therefore it’s simply a case of examining each individual service for their strengths and weaknesses and take it from there. It might also be something you wish to apply to your own betting record as you may be surprised where your speciality lies!
As punters we can sometimes be blinded by where our own betting strengths really lie so by examining them properly, we can really help ourselves out!
If you enjoyed this analysis and want to know more about the racing tipster in question and our full 6 page analysis, pick up the January 2014 Tipster Profit Report, available now to all Smart Betting Club members.
Peter – Smart Betting Club Editor
