Why You Should Beware Hotly Tipped Favourites At Cheltenham 2012

Unless you have been living under a rock lately you will know next week is arguably the biggest racing event of the year – Cheltenham Festival 2012.

Many of you will no doubt be having a bet or two next week at the very least, with very often most of the attention focused on tip favourites like Kauto Star, Big Bucks & Hurricane Fly.

With that in mind, today I want to reveal some key Cheltenham 2012 betting tips, which are a must-read if backing any short-priced favourites next week.

It’s certainly focused my attention for a number of my own Cheltenham festival tips and is one reason why I won’t be splashing the big bucks on the likes of Big Bucks if he sees market support. Let me show you why…

Deciphering The Cheltenham Betting Market

Talk during Cheltenham itself always turns to that of the betting markets, with much debate about horses being tipped up and shortening in price alongside those drifting like a barge.

For Average Joe Punter, it’s hard to know exactly what tips to follow or what to bet upon, which is why we commissioned experts The Market Examiner to analyse the past 10 years at Cheltenham betting markets to help solve this conundrum.

They analysed 232 Cheltenham festival races and found exactly 889 horses that shortened in price in the last few minutes before the race. They went through each one with a fine toothcomb to help uncover Cheltenham betting stats that really matter.

Allow me to show you just one of their findings on why there is no such thing as a Cheltenham festival banker.

Odds-on Festival ‘Bankers’ That Shorten – Not Always A Sure Tip

One key finding involves horses with an SP under even money, which have contracted in price in the betting market just minutes before the off.

Most people consider these ‘Festival Bankers’, but how well have these tips done over the last ten years ?

Surprisingly poorly is the answer and although there have been only 8 such horses in the past 10 years, just 2 have gone on to win to make a total loss of -4.26pts (-53.25%ROI).

Disproving any theory that these are what you mind call ‘Festival Bankers’

So if at Cheltenham 2012, you see Hurricane Fly harden up from 10/11 on course into 4/5 in this year’s Champion Hurdle – that isn’t a signal that free money’s up for grabs.

Other high profile defeats include Dunguib in the 2010 Supreme Novice Hurdle (4/5 SP), Kauto Star in the 2008 Gold Cup (10/11) and Voy Por Ustedes in the 2009 Ryanair Chase (4/5).

All seemingly good things, especially if listening to the betting market, yet ultimately would have cost you big time.

Tips 2/1 and Under – Still No Better

The next question they posed is what would happen if we widened our net and included those horses trading at even money up to just shy of 2/1.

Once again, the findings show that these tips overall will make you a loss at Cheltenham. There have been 32 such horses to meet this criteria in the past 10 years with just 12 winning to make a total loss of -3.55 pts (-11.09% ROI).

An improved strike rate, but still not the gravy train of success we may hope for.

Of course – if we have already backed those 32 likely contenders at 2/1 or bigger, then we’re looking at a different story. Suddenly we’d have a profitable line and market confidence can only be good news.

However if you are lumping on a favourite at 2/1 and under in the last few minutes of a race based upon market support, history shows this isn’t a sure thing.

So if you are having a bet on any of the strong favourites at 2/1 and under at Cheltenham such as Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly, Grands Crus, Sizing Europe, Big Bucks, Long Run, Kauto Star and Quevega…do be careful!

How To Read More Free Cheltenham Tips Analysis FREE

The above Cheltenham market analysis is taken from our own expert Cheltenham Tips 2012 guide, which you can now download totally for free.

It’s been produced by a hand-picked team of betting experts, specifically put together by the racing tipster experts at the Smart Betting Club to provide some of the best analysis during the famous festival.

So if you are looking for advice on the best  way to make money at Cheltenham – pick up your own copy for free right away via http://www.cheltenham-tips-2012.com/