Why We Act Irrationally When Bets Lose…

If you are considering the idea of starting to make money betting with tipsters, then one of the most important lessons to understand comes in the form of learning how to handle losses.

Yes, it might seem odd to read that coming from somebody who edits a site dedicated to ‘making money betting’ but it’s actually one of the most critical parts of a pro punters armoury – coping with bad runs!

Sometimes it’s all too easy to get caught up in the idea of winning, without contemplating the possibility of losing. Yet this is what catches all too many gamblers out.

Put simply, if you want to win – you have to understand how often you will lose!

Allow me to explain more with the help of a couple of professors….

Save £16 on an SBC membership in May

Irrational Behaviour When It Comes To Losing

Back in 1979, Professors Kahnemann and Tversky presented an idea called Prospect Theory, which effectively outlined just how we view success and failure very differently.

Our decisions it seems are often based on what we can win, rather than what we can lose – even if the end net result is the same.
For example, consider two different punters.

  • Punter A places a £25 bet at 2/1 that wins him £50. His total profit is £50
  • Punter B places a £25 at 4/1 that wins him £100. He then places another £50 bet that loses. His total profit is also £50.

When asked to choose whether they would rather be – the vast majority of people would pick Punter A, despite the fact that both Punters A and B ended up with £50 profit.

Its irrational behaviour but it goes to show how the majority of people don’t like losing!

The Pain Of A Loser Is Twice The Joy Of A Winner

This behaviour (or hatred of losing) also feeds back into evidence from studies that indicate that the pain suffered from a losing bet is at least twice as impactful as the joy gained from a winner.

So if you watch every single bet you place – there is a great chance you will end up feeling pretty glum unless a very large majority of them win.

You are ultimately fighting a losing battle…

All of which is why I so often preach the need to be ‘emotionally detached’ from your betting to ensure you can cope with its regular ups and downs.

This simply means you don’t get too wrapped up in the success or failure of your bets – treating both winners and losers the same.

Your bet wins – great. Your bet loses – oh well… Either way you walk away and don’t let it concern you too much.

The Best Tipster Guide - SBC

Tipster Detachment

A classic example of the need for emotional detachment comes when following tipsters.

After all – there is often no need to watch a race or football game they have tipped up on. If you trust the tipster to be an expert, it’s not as if you need to double-check they know what they are doing surely?

Take for example one tipster I have been in contact with this week as he is offering a free 2-week trial for all SBC members keen to sample his service. He is a long-running Hall of Fame recommended racing tipster of real quality.

Long-term his ROI sits at 21% from 13000 bets, you can obtain the odds on the tips he puts up and he is a very fine judge indeed.

Yet his approach does need a fair amount of emotional detachment due to his strike-rate of just 14.1%, the fact his average odds are 11/1 and given that he backs all his tips to win rather than each way (as quite rightly long-term this makes the bigger profit).

Yet if you flip that strike-rate on its head, it changes from 14.1% of bets win, to 85.9% of bets lose.

Yes, 85.9% of his bets lose – That’s 6 out of every 7 – a ratio that some punters if not setup correctly will struggle with.

Expect A Lot Of Rough With Occasional Smooth…

Given this strike-rate, you do need to expect regular losing runs with this tipster. You can easily expect 10, 15, 20 losers on the bounce.

And with that can come the issues and ‘pain of losing’ I discuss above – especially if choosing to watch every bet or tally up every loser as they come in.

This is where ensuring you are emotionally detached comes in – alongside some sensible betting bank management and a fair bit of patience too.

After all, even after a losing run of 20, you would only need two winners at 11/1 to show an overall profit. A couple more at big prices and suddenly that edge jumps significantly.

This has actually happened several times with this particular tipster – long losing runs followed by a stream of winners.

The trick here is not to panic but stay focused, disconnect your feelings of loss and be confident that he knows what he is doing. He has done it for 8 years after all!


Not Allowing Betting To Cloud Your Mood

If able to get on top of an understanding as to how you as a punter are impacted by winners and losers alike, it will make a significant difference to your betting bottom-line.

It might also help give you greater peace of mind and even switch off from your betting when it’s all done for the day.

No longer will a winning or losing bet impact your mood – and you will be in a much healthier frame of mind to make sensible betting decisions in the future.

If you are after further help with your betting, then you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership. Upon subscription you can download our complete ‘Pro Gambler Blueprint’ PDF which is full of salient advice and expertise such as this to help guide you with your betting.

By joining this May you can also save £16 on all Smart Betting Club memberships to celebrate our 10-year anniversary.

Sign-up today and gain instant access to the Smart Betting Club.