If ever there was an object lesson of the perils of betting in management markets it comes with the appointment of Andre Villas Boas as Chelsea manager after Guus Hiddink had traded as short as 1/6 for the job, just days before.Boas first shot to prominence in the UK in 2005 when, as opposition scout for Jose Mourinho at Chelsea, one of his scouting reports was leaked onto the internet. Six years on it still makes fascinating reading.

Andre Villas Boas allegedly got his big break, when he was improbably set to work by his neighbour Sir Bobby Robson for Porto.

Aged just 16, AVB allegedly button-holed the venerated Geordie boss, in the apartment block where both men lived, and suggested that the manager look to involve Domingos Paciência, the current Braga coach, in Porto’s games more regularly. The rest as they say is history…

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If ever there was an object lesson of the perils of betting in management markets it comes with the appointment of Andre Villas Boas as Chelsea manager after Guus Hiddink had traded as short as 1/6 for the job, just days before.Boas first shot to prominence in the UK in 2005 when, as opposition scout for Jose Mourinho at Chelsea, one of his scouting reports was leaked onto the internet. Six years on it still makes fascinating reading.

Andre Villas Boas allegedly got his big break, when he was improbably set to work by his neighbour Sir Bobby Robson for Porto.

Aged just 16, AVB allegedly button-holed the venerated Geordie boss, in the apartment block where both men lived, and suggested that the manager look to involve Domingos Paciência, the current Braga coach, in Porto’s games more regularly. The rest as they say is history…

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As a professional gambler, the summer offers a great time for a change of pace.

With breathing space between the big events summer is a time when I can go back to basics and re-evaluate cherished thoughts and ideas that, at other times, get simply treated as a matter of course.

It is something we can all benefit from doing, not just punters, but also those so called experts in the media – pundits, summarisers and commentators.

Indeed, it seems to me, that they have founded a whole industry on the principle of the Gamblers Fallacy – the almost karmic notion that the universe is in perfect harmony and that luck, both good and bad will even itself out over some preordained period of time. Its conclusion is that all, in the best fairytale tradition, will all end happily ever after and something we all need disabused off.

The Gamblers Fallacy is the cliché that the punter clings to during a string of unlucky losers or the under-fire manager throws up in his press conference as a consolation when his side have been stung by another late, offside goal.

Continue reading →

As a professional gambler, the summer offers a great time for a change of pace.

With breathing space between the big events summer is a time when I can go back to basics and re-evaluate cherished thoughts and ideas that, at other times, get simply treated as a matter of course.

It is something we can all benefit from doing, not just punters, but also those so called experts in the media – pundits, summarisers and commentators.

Indeed, it seems to me, that they have founded a whole industry on the principle of the Gamblers Fallacy – the almost karmic notion that the universe is in perfect harmony and that luck, both good and bad will even itself out over some preordained period of time. Its conclusion is that all, in the best fairytale tradition, will all end happily ever after and something we all need disabused off.

The Gamblers Fallacy is the cliché that the punter clings to during a string of unlucky losers or the under-fire manager throws up in his press conference as a consolation when his side have been stung by another late, offside goal.

Continue reading →