As a professional gambler, the summer offers a great time for a change of pace.
With breathing space between the big events summer is a time when I can go back to basics and re-evaluate cherished thoughts and ideas that, at other times, get simply treated as a matter of course.
It is something we can all benefit from doing, not just punters, but also those so called experts in the media – pundits, summarisers and commentators.
Indeed, it seems to me, that they have founded a whole industry on the principle of the Gamblers Fallacy – the almost karmic notion that the universe is in perfect harmony and that luck, both good and bad will even itself out over some preordained period of time. Its conclusion is that all, in the best fairytale tradition, will all end happily ever after and something we all need disabused off.
The Gamblers Fallacy is the cliché that the punter clings to during a string of unlucky losers or the under-fire manager throws up in his press conference as a consolation when his side have been stung by another late, offside goal.
It is consistent with the belief that the cosmos somehow carries a memory of past results and that sooner or later everyone will get their turn. This is why the pundits suggest that certain teams are ‘too good to go down’ or why in betting parlance selections we’ve made: ‘are due a turn’. It is the fallacy that informs the quasi mystical devotion of hardcore fans and the vain attempts to make sense of it all of the pundits and feature writers alike. But it is of course, a superstitious nonsense.
Let’s look at a less emotive example. If a fair coin is tossed 10 times and lands ‘heads’ 10 times, the gambler’s fallacy would suggest an even-money bet on ‘tails’ because tails must be due its turn. Meanwhile, it’s opposite, the inverse gambler’s fallacy would suggest an even-money bet on “heads” because heads is clearly the ‘form pick’ on a roll. But really, if we are dealing with a fair coin then how can we possibly suggest that either another heads or tails is any more likely than it was when the coin was tossed at any point during the previous 10 times?
What we can learn from this example is that we should strive to understand the difference between genuine form and probabilities and the simple vagaries of randomness that effect results.
So, is there a reason why our horse consistently gets pipped in close run finishes or why or team has fallen foul of controversial refereeing decisions this season.
For example, in the SPL this season Billy Reid the Hamilton manager bemoaned the fact that his relegated side conceded 15 penalties in all competitions. While an Accies’ fan might have wondered when his sides fortunes would turn with a slew of luck ‘to balance things up’, I’d be wondering why Hamilton consistently shot themselves in the foot. The harsh, and most likely conclusion, is that rather than being unlucky, this side simply weren’t good enough to avoid the situations that led to them committing those fouls in the first place.
This harsh fact may also be the reason why the much hyped England U21s are not guaranteed three points against the Czechs tomorrow. Two draws this week against Spain and Ukraine, for differing reasons, suggest to me that a win tomorrow is no foregone conclusion – even if this hyped up collection of Premiership youngsters are ‘due one’ in this ‘must win’ group decider. The form bookrather than the cosmos suggests that they look poor value at 11/10 to win on Sunday.
Royal Ascot
A great deal of my focus this week has been over at Royal Ascot, which so far has been quite successful for followers of my 4 Pronged Attack system, but more about that in a second.
The Royal Meeting also flagged up a number of animals to keep on the right side of in future races.
Gatepost, a classy Mick Channon 2yo ran well but never had a chance as on the opening day bias favoured higher drawn horses. Zigato was given a pig of a ride by William Buick. Now connections know he stays he could prove one of the best at the extreme trips this season. On Wednesday, Cape Dollar was repeatedly blocked in his run but is clearly handicapped to win with better luck. Finally, Census on Thursday was overshadowed by our winner Brown Panther but he will likely not meet such a classy opponent when he reappears on the race track.
Back to my 4 Pronged Attack System and the highlight came late yesterday (Thursday) when it picked out Brown Panther early on at 8/1, which I backed 1pt each way. It was a joy to see a couple of furlongs out just how well he was travelling and rounding the home turn he quickened and looked one of the most impressive winners of the week. Tom Dascombe has a quality horse in his yard and I think that will be the last handicap that this one runs in.
After just three days of Royal Ascot, followers of the 4PA would now be in total 8.12 pts up from just nine bets and 16 pts staked. That is a return on investment of over 50%, which in anyone’s language – either logical or mystical – is a good value return.
You can find out more about how you can get hold of this system by clicking here.