Happy to see the back of last weekend with all the derby games and draws that no doubt did for many a betting accumulator. A lot more value betting opportunities have sprung forth for this next round of games and I am expecting goals!

This is because I have quite a few over 2.5 goal bets this weekend, starting over at Bloomfield Road, where you can get a very tasty 1.9 in the game between Blackpool and Sunderland. Perhaps the bookies are over-reacting to Darren Bent’s move but the facts are that the Seasiders have gone overs in 100% of all home games this season and it’s a high-scoring trend that has been in place ever since Ian Holloway has been in charge. Sunderland will perhaps be better suited to playing just Asamoah Gyan upfront as a target man away and as always with Blackpool games, there is plenty of goal-mouth action!

Newcastle & Spurs are two other teams not noted for defensive solidity and indeed Spurs have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home this season whereas the Toon have gone over 2.5 goals in 73% of all fixtures at St James Park.  The overs line is 1.91 with Pinnacle, which estimates a 52.3% chance, and I make it closer to 60% in my book.

My third overs bet is in the midday kick off game featuring Wolves and Liverpool and both teams have struggled to stem the flow of goals this season. Wolves have gone overs in 55% of home games, whereas Liverpool have the same 55% marker away from home. Looking at it logically as well, both teams look very shaky at the back and if Torres fires up again, there should be goals. Dalglish will see this as a must-win game also. 10bet are offering 2.22 on the overs line, which is a 45% chance and looks too big for me.

I have one Main Asian Handicap bet on perennial favourites Bolton who you can back with a +1 start at 1.85 at home to Chelsea. Bolton are formidable at the Reebok, losing only once there this season against Liverpool (and rather unluckily so in my opinion). Chelsea as we know are far from convincing these days and have won just 3 away this season at Blackburn, West Ham and Wigan. I certainly can’t see more than a 1 goal win if Ancelotti’s men do get their act together and am siding with the Trotters once again, who have served me so well this season.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Blackpool V Sunderland 1.90. Canbet/188bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Spurs. 1.91 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Wolves V Liverpool. 2.22 10Bet
1 pt Bolton (+1 AH) V Chelsea. 1.84 Ladbrokes/12bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.25 goals. Fulham V Stoke. 2.12 Pinnacle

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

We have a very competitive looking weekend of Premier League action coming up with 3 big derbies and a crunch game down at White Hart Lane. No doubt all police leave will have been cancelled this weekend!

My strongest bet of the weekend comes up at the Stadium of Light where Sunderland are what looks to be a far too generous 2.23 with 2 bookies to beat Newcastle. Perhaps too much is being made of the 5-1 reverse thrashing but the facts are that the Black Cats have a very strong home record indeed, winning 6, drawing 4 and losing just 1 this season. I’m not at all convinced that Alan Partridge (sorry, Pardew) will be right for the Geordies and I make the home win probability towards a 50% chance, much better than the 44% that the 2.23 odds indicate. The one concern is that Newcastle have been such a Jekyll and Hyde team so it depends what side of bed they all get out of that morning especially. Andy Carroll if not fit will be a big miss as well.

Another team who have made their home ground a bit of a fortress is Spurs who are as big as 2/1 to see off Man Utd on Sunday. Remarkably only Wigan have come away from the Lane with all 3 pts this season and United have won only 2 games on the road, both of which were far from convincing narrow victories at Stoke and West Brom. They seem to have missed Rooney’s usual cut and thrust away this season and are vulnerable down the flanks, especially at right back so Gareth Bale could be key. A draw for me looks likely, followed by a home win so I am taking the +0.25 Asian Handicap on Spurs at 1.78 with 12bet.

These 2 games apart its slim pickings this weekend although I am placing my first bet on Blackpool in the outright match market for this season. West Brom are struggling for quality defensively with a few key players out and could be overwhelmed by Blackpool’s attacking instincts who  will be full of confidence after doing the double over Liverpool. A shortlist bet on the Tangerines with a +0.75 Asian Handicap at 1.96 with Pinnacle and 188bet is the approach here.

My only other interest this weekend was potentially over at Anfield where Liverpool are a very big looking 2.29 to beat Everton at home. I have passed this over as a bet due to my policy of not betting heavily on teams that have undergone recent changes (such as a new manager). Still Liverpool have a pretty decent record and at 2.29, this indicates a 43.6% chance of victory for the home side, which may offer value. No bet for me but will watch with interest.

Main Bets
1 pt Sunderland to beat Newcastle  2.23 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Spurs (+0.25 AH) V Man Utd. 1.78 12bet/Canbet/SBObet/188bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Blackpool (+0.75 AH) V West Brom. 1.96 Pinnacle/188bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

We have a very competitive looking weekend of Premier League action coming up with 3 big derbies and a crunch game down at White Hart Lane. No doubt all police leave will have been cancelled this weekend!

My strongest bet of the weekend comes up at the Stadium of Light where Sunderland are what looks to be a far too generous 2.23 with 2 bookies to beat Newcastle. Perhaps too much is being made of the 5-1 reverse thrashing but the facts are that the Black Cats have a very strong home record indeed, winning 6, drawing 4 and losing just 1 this season. I’m not at all convinced that Alan Partridge (sorry, Pardew) will be right for the Geordies and I make the home win probability towards a 50% chance, much better than the 44% that the 2.23 odds indicate. The one concern is that Newcastle have been such a Jekyll and Hyde team so it depends what side of bed they all get out of that morning especially. Andy Carroll if not fit will be a big miss as well.

Another team who have made their home ground a bit of a fortress is Spurs who are as big as 2/1 to see off Man Utd on Sunday. Remarkably only Wigan have come away from the Lane with all 3 pts this season and United have won only 2 games on the road, both of which were far from convincing narrow victories at Stoke and West Brom. They seem to have missed Rooney’s usual cut and thrust away this season and are vulnerable down the flanks, especially at right back so Gareth Bale could be key. A draw for me looks likely, followed by a home win so I am taking the +0.25 Asian Handicap on Spurs at 1.78 with 12bet.

These 2 games apart its slim pickings this weekend although I am placing my first bet on Blackpool in the outright match market for this season. West Brom are struggling for quality defensively with a few key players out and could be overwhelmed by Blackpool’s attacking instincts who  will be full of confidence after doing the double over Liverpool. A shortlist bet on the Tangerines with a +0.75 Asian Handicap at 1.96 with Pinnacle and 188bet is the approach here.

My only other interest this weekend was potentially over at Anfield where Liverpool are a very big looking 2.29 to beat Everton at home. I have passed this over as a bet due to my policy of not betting heavily on teams that have undergone recent changes (such as a new manager). Still Liverpool have a pretty decent record and at 2.29, this indicates a 43.6% chance of victory for the home side, which may offer value. No bet for me but will watch with interest.

Main Bets
1 pt Sunderland to beat Newcastle  2.23 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Spurs (+0.25 AH) V Man Utd. 1.78 12bet/Canbet/SBObet/188bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Blackpool (+0.75 AH) V West Brom. 1.96 Pinnacle/188bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

It’s been a hectic period of fixtures over the Christmas and New Year for Premier League teams, although some respite this week with the FA Cup taking place. As such I won’t be advising any bets as I prefer to concentrate solely on the Premier League and avoid the lottery that comes with the knock-out tournaments.

It’s perhaps therefore a good time for a re-cap on where we are now that we are just past halfway through the season. Way back in August, my clear goal was to continue to see if I could establish a long-term profit of a decent standard through the use of 3 main bets – Asian Handicaps, Over/under goals and straight 1X2 bets in the English Premier League. The good news is that I have been able to hit those straps, with my 2010/11 record now providing a 8.25 pt profit from 71 bets thus far (12.14% ROI). This follows on from the 10.66 pts profit (13.75% ROI) I managed in 8 months of the 2009/10 season.

Check out the table below for full details on Main bet performance

.
I still want to re-iterate that this is still a work in progress and I would hate to think anyone is placing large sums of money on any of my selections just yet! It’s all about building up a strong record over the long-term, but at least we look as though we are heading in the right direction.

I will be back either in midweek if there are any bets on the Blackpool – Liverpool game or next weekend, when we have a full card in the Premier League once again.

Mike

It’s been a hectic period of fixtures over the Christmas and New Year for Premier League teams, although some respite this week with the FA Cup taking place. As such I won’t be advising any bets as I prefer to concentrate solely on the Premier League and avoid the lottery that comes with the knock-out tournaments.

It’s perhaps therefore a good time for a re-cap on where we are now that we are just past halfway through the season. Way back in August, my clear goal was to continue to see if I could establish a long-term profit of a decent standard through the use of 3 main bets – Asian Handicaps, Over/under goals and straight 1X2 bets in the English Premier League. The good news is that I have been able to hit those straps, with my 2010/11 record now providing a 8.25 pt profit from 71 bets thus far (12.14% ROI). This follows on from the 10.66 pts profit (13.75% ROI) I managed in 8 months of the 2009/10 season.

Check out the table below for full details on Main bet performance

.
I still want to re-iterate that this is still a work in progress and I would hate to think anyone is placing large sums of money on any of my selections just yet! It’s all about building up a strong record over the long-term, but at least we look as though we are heading in the right direction.

I will be back either in midweek if there are any bets on the Blackpool – Liverpool game or next weekend, when we have a full card in the Premier League once again.

Mike

Let down by a 90th minute Joe Cole goal in the last round of fixtures and its proven to be a tricky period with so many games in such a short period of time (too many if you ask me!)

I expect some tired legs with the huge number of games played recently so there could well be goals a plenty. I think both the overs lines in the Blackpool and Fulham games offer some excellent value. The Bolton AH -0.75 line would also be a main bet were if not for worries over the number of fit players they will have for this game (They only had 4 subs in the Liverpool game!).

Please note there will be no Premier League games this coming weekend as we have the FA Cup 3rd round instead.

Main Bets
1.5 pts Over 2.5 goals – Blackpool V Birmingham. 2.07 Canbet/SBOBet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals – Fulham V West Brom. 2.26 SBOBet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Fulham (-0.25 AH) V West Brom. 1.88 Pinnacle/12Bet
1 pt Bolton (-0.75 AH) V Wigan. 1.98 Canbet/SBOBet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Let down by a 90th minute Joe Cole goal in the last round of fixtures and its proven to be a tricky period with so many games in such a short period of time (too many if you ask me!)

I expect some tired legs with the huge number of games played recently so there could well be goals a plenty. I think both the overs lines in the Blackpool and Fulham games offer some excellent value. The Bolton AH -0.75 line would also be a main bet were if not for worries over the number of fit players they will have for this game (They only had 4 subs in the Liverpool game!).

Please note there will be no Premier League games this coming weekend as we have the FA Cup 3rd round instead.

Main Bets
1.5 pts Over 2.5 goals – Blackpool V Birmingham. 2.07 Canbet/SBOBet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals – Fulham V West Brom. 2.26 SBOBet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Fulham (-0.25 AH) V West Brom. 1.88 Pinnacle/12Bet
1 pt Bolton (-0.75 AH) V Wigan. 1.98 Canbet/SBOBet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

A few more bets for the first set of games in 2011.

Main Bets
1 pt Bolton (+1 AH) V Liverpool. 1.83 Stan James
1 pt Sunderland (-0.5 AH) V Blackburn. 1.99 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.5 Goals – West Ham V Wolves. 2.14 5Dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Everton (0 AH) V Stoke. 2.02 Ladbrokes

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

A few more bets for the first set of games in 2011.

Main Bets
1 pt Bolton (+1 AH) V Liverpool. 1.83 Stan James
1 pt Sunderland (-0.5 AH) V Blackburn. 1.99 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.5 Goals – West Ham V Wolves. 2.14 5Dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Everton (0 AH) V Stoke. 2.02 Ladbrokes

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike