I want to get my bets in early this weekend as I am concerned that my best value bets often seem to diminish in price over time, which is a pattern I have spotted of late.
Value wise, the overs market in the game between the Hammers and the Brummies looks to be fantastic. Consider that in the past 2 seasons, West Hams home games have gone overs 60% and Birmingham’s away games 63%, you would think the odds would reflect that. Not so as you can get 2.12 from Pinnacle which equates the chance of 3 or more goals as 47.16%, when the stats say differently. Logically as well West Ham have a leaky defence and Birmingham nowhere near as solid as last year either.
Man City are also under-rated against West Brom, who are another side struggling at the back and I can’t see them coping with the movement from Silva, Tevez and Dzeko. I expect an easy home win here and the 1.79 from 12Bet on City to overcome the -1 Asian Handicap jumps out.
As Harry Redknapp love to say, Spurs are down to the ‘bare bones’ and it’s no surprise to see them struggle creatively midweek with the likes of Bale, Modric and Pienaar all out. This season both Spurs at home and Bolton away have gone under 2.5 goals in 67% of games and with Bolton’s strikers also far from prolific recently, I think the odds of 2.05 on less than 3 goals is too big.
One team that doesn’t struggle to score is Arsenal and they have gone overs 58% of the time away from home, whereas Newcastle have a 67% record at St James Park. This makes sense as with 50,000 Geordies willing you on, they have to attack teams and I expect Arsenal to find plenty of space to exploit. The 1.90 on over 2.5 goals is my final main bet.
Elsewhere, 2 shortlist bets and I am taking Villa to continue their recent improvement against a Fulham side that will go for the draw so the -0.25 handicap offers some appeal here. Chelsea should also have far too much against a better looking Liverpool team, who will be really tested at the back against Torres, Drogba, Anelka et al. On there day these 3 will eat the likes of Kygriakos for breakfast and I fancy a home win here. Not great value in the odds so just a shortlist bet.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Birmingham. 2.12 Pinnacle
1 pt Man City -1 Asian Handicap V West Brom. 1.79 12Bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Arsenal. 1.90 Pinnacle
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Spurs V Bolton. 2.05 12Bet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Aston Villa -0.25 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 1.77 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap V Liverpool. 1.78 10Bet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike