Not the easiest looking betting fixtures this weekend in the top flight and just the 2 Main bets from me, starting off with the game at the Stadium of Light between Sunderland and Spurs.
Spurs have struggled lately with injuries to the creative hub of their team with the likes of Modric, Bale and now Van der Vaart all out. To make matters worse they face a very tricky fixture against Steve Bruce’s team who are very strong in general at home. The hosts to my mind continue to be under-rated and have won 6 out of 13 home fixtures, losing just twice to Chelsea and Blackpool. You can get 2.04 on them with a 0 ball Asian Handicap, which covers the draw and looks to be great value against a depleted Spurs outfit.
No matter what Ian Holloway does, his team cant stop leaking goals and to me it’s a simple case of not having the quality defensive personnel required to shut up shop. Attack for them is the best form of defence and the bookies continue to be very slow to cotton on to the chance of goals in their home games. All 11 tangerine games have gone 3 goals or more with 5 (45%) going 4 goals or more. They face Villa who have also seen 67% of their away games go over 3 goals so they aren’t exactly going to park the bus either. I will take the 1.79 on over 2.75 goals in this market.
Aside from those 2 main bets, its hard work finding value this weekend and the 3 shortlist bets highlight this. Birmingham are very solid at home but the 1.78 0 AH is a bit short in price to be a main bet against a Stoke team who are improving but continue to struggle on the road in general.
Man City will be happy to draw away at Utd as it keeps them in the hunt for the top 4 spot (their ultimate goal this year – not the title) and so the 1.83 on less than 3 goals appeals as a shortlist bet. Fulham continue also to be under-rated goals wise at home and even though Chelsea were toothless last weekend, prior to that they had found their shooting boots. Hopeful of seeing some goalmouth action at Craven Cottage this weekend so over 2.5 goals is the call with stats backing this up as one to be on.
Main Bets
1 pt Sunderland 0 Asian Handicap V Spurs. 2.04 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.75 goals. Blackpool V Aston Villa. 1.79 5Dimes
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Birmingham 0 Asian Handicap V Stoke. 1.78 Pinnacle/188bet
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Man Utd V Man City. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Chelsea. 2.08 188bet/Canbet/SBObet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike