In our SBC Magazine for November, Issue #147, we took a look at Gwdihw Racing, a Betfair SP tipster that is free to follow.
From our usual analysis point of view, this presented issues as for the first time we were looking at a service that didn’t have Closing Line Value as a metric we could look at. I.e. we couldn’t benchmark performance against Betfair SP as that is what it used!
With that in mind, we introduced a few more bits of analysis to help us explore not only Gwdihw Racing but Betfair SP and exchange-based tipsters themselves. We talked about it in SBC Podcast #82 but thought that sharing a little more detail in this email would be useful too!
An Evolution In Betting
Before discussing those metrics, it is worth discussing why a Betfair SP tipster is so attractive to punters, especially successful players.
Account restrictions, high margins on early prices and bookmakers’ unwillingness to lay racing bets have made it more difficult than ever to make sustainable profits from the sport.
As John, Gwdihw’s operator, discusses here, profit and loss to bookmaker prices can often be illusory:
Gwdihw avoids all of these pitfalls by taking on the toughest of lines – Betfair SP. Outside of pure Profit and Loss figures, here are two of our newer metrics that we introduced to analyse the service…
A/E and PRB
Actual/Expected is a great way to test whether a system or strategy is performing beyond bare profit and loss as it weeds out unsustainable approaches and tests the selection process against market expectation.
This will be tethered to P&L for the most part (especially at Betfair SP), but as Josh points out in the review, a record can mask unsustainable approaches when big winners skew the overall figures – we introduce A/E to assess Gwdihw’s approach.
Another way to assess a racing tipster is Percentage Of Rivals Beaten (or PRB). Here we took each selection’s position in the market at the off and compared that to where they actually finished, providing more context to how the bets were performing.
Advanced Analytics & Adaptations To Suit The User
Another item of discussion in the review was staking, something that John had identified as an area of possible improvement himself.
Using our Advanced Analytics, we compared the flat staking that John uses to measure his bets against a unit-win staking to deepen our understanding of performance:
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Why did we do this? Well a flat staking strategy can place a massive premium on certain longer priced horses if they are staked to the same level as an odds-on favourite so a more blended strategy can be deployed to even this disparity out.
As you can see here, it also provides the opportunity to approach a strategy with lower drawdowns and a less volatile betting journey.
Read All Of Our Reviews With A Subscription!
A full review of Gwdihw with all of this analysis (and a lot more!) is instantly available with a SBC Membership and different sign up options are available here.
Along with Gwdihw Racing, you will also be able to access all of our historical reviews in our back catalogue as well as several further member benefits that you can read about here.
If you want to know how a SBC Membership can help your betting it is well worth reading this Case Study from our member, James, who details how he has made just under £20k using the SBC since (re)joining us in January 2023!
If you want to know more about what we do or have any further questions please get in touch!