Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.
Each Friday, Scott will be provide us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – all the key horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.
This week Scott has turned his attention to Saturdays main race, the Betfair Celebration Mile at Goodwood and why he is taking on the 11/8 favourite Poet’s Voice in a field reduced to just 7 runners due to ground conditions.
Saturday’s racing witnesses two races worth a pot of £100,000 in the shape of the Betfair Celebration Mile at Goodwood and the Tattersall Millions Median Auction Stakes at Newmarket.
Filly Samitar looks sure to be a warm order in the big one at Newmarket showing up well clear of the rest of the field on the speed ratings though Brian Meehan’s Mehdi looks a realistic threat. Mehdi simply blitzed a Class 5 field at Ripon at the beginning of the month showing a fine turn of foot and subsequently he was far from disgraced behind useful previous winners Rebellious Guest and Compton in a conditions event at Windsor. At the time of writing no prices are available for the Tattersall Millions race but Mehdi is worthy of an each-way play should Samitar run as a hot favourite.
The main event – the Group 2, Class 1 Betfair Celebration Mile at Goodwood on Saturday has cut up badly with the loss of hot favourite Strong Suit and master flat trainer Aidan O’Briens Zoffany along with Dermot Weld’s Famous Name. Strong Suit looked a worthy market leader after his impressive win in the Lennox Stakes last month but connections refused to stretch the horse over a mile on potentially soft ground.
Poet’s Voice An Uneasy Favourite
With those major omissions the field is now reduced to seven as Poet’s Voice has assumed the mantle of favourite. An easy four and a half lengths victor of this race last year Godolphin’s Poet’s Voice is a proven Group 1 winner having landed the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot last season when defeating the memorable Rip Van Winkle by a nose though his absence from the racecourse for five months has to be viewed as a negative. In addition Poet’s Voice has never been the easiest of rides illustrating a propensity to run too freely for his own good. When last seen at the track in the Dubai World Cup in Meydan, Poet’s Voice gave his chance away early in the race by pulling too hard and finishing last of the fourteen runners.
Godolphin’s charge though is sure to retain favourite status come Saturday under the tutorship of Frankie Dettori. The Italian superstar jockey was radiating his familiar smile last week on the Limekilns after a glowing piece of work on the horse and confidence is oozing from the camp regarding Poet’s Voice chance of adding to last year’s success in the race.
Who are the dangers to the favourite? Dubawi Gold and Beacon Lodge look the most likely. Dubawi Gold was second in both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas in May and though only finishing a distant fourth to Excelebration on his last start in the Hungerford stakes at Newbury, the three-year old colt shaped as though a return to his Guineas form may not be far away.
Clive Cox’s Beacon Lodge is seeking his first group stakes win this year. The six-year old was second in the aforementioned Hungerford Stakes over seven furlongs at Newbury last month and any incoming rain would be advantageous to his chances.
Astute trainer Chris Wall’s veteran runner Premio Loco is a solid type and has shown an ability to act on the course, winning in listed company in 2009 and third behind Canford Cliffs and the memorable Rip Van Winkle in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes last year. Trainer Chris Wall is emitting confidence and currently on a hot streak of form.
Of the other runners Emerald Commander is far from an easy ride while Set The Trend and Riggins don’t look up to the task. It’s noticeable that in the last ten years no winner has won the race at odds of 11-1 or bigger.
In conclusion the money for Poet’s Voice has to be respected and the camp are exuding confidence. The favourite shows up favourably on the ratings and Saeed Bin Suroor’s record in the race cannot be ignored having taken honours on three occasions from the last seven renewals of the race. Taking on Godolphin’s runners at 9-4 or less since April this year has been a route to profit however and in addition only three favourites have won the Celebration Mile over the past decade. The horse’s absence from the track is also a major cause for concern and though I couldn’t be censorious of Poet’s Voice I’d be inclined to take him on at a current 2.2 on Betfair and that price should contract on the day as bettors seek the panacea of punters pal – Frankie Dettori.