Have you ever started to follow a betting system or tipster, only to find that as soon as you join it hits a losing run? Well if you have you are not alone let me assure you. Some consider this simply ‘sods law’ and just the way things work, but delving deeper is there anything that can be done to pre-empt such runs?
I am of the firm belief that this is most certainly the case, especially when it comes to relatively new betting products, which we should always be wary of. Let me explain using some monkeys and William Shakespeare…
The Merchimp of Venice
Consider first the theory that in a world with unlimited parallel universes, somewhere a monkey sat on a typewriter has written the complete works of William Shakespeare. The ‘Merchimp of Venice’ if you will!
For this to happen there would be need to be trillions of universes where gazillions of monkeys have typed out utter gobbledygook. But in just 1 out of these infinitive universes, somewhere a monkey purely by chance has randomly emulated the famous bard.
The reason I share this theory is that anything random is possible if given enough occurrences, especially when it comes to making a profit betting.
If enough betting products are spat out in any given month then the law of randomness insists that a good percentage of these will make a profit – purely by chance.
The Maths Part
To give an example, let’s say we have 100 products released (be they systems or tipsters) in any given month. If our law of randomness suggests 50% of any product will make a profit in any given month, then that means 50 out of this 100 will profit in month 1.
Drilling this down to month 2, 50% of the remaining 50 make a profit. Leaving us 25 products in profit for both month 1 and month 2.
In month 3 this goes down to just 12.5 products, month 4 just 6.25, month 5 – 3.125, until we get to month 6 where 1.56 of the initial 100 products have made a profit in each month.
So after 6 months it is conceivable that a maximum of 2 services out of 100 have profited purely from randomness. No skill involved…purely chance!
Danger From Short-term Results
This is why it is so dangerous to read too much into the results of a betting product from just a few months. Could it be that the system that has done so well in its first 3 to 6 months, has benefitted purely by chance?
It could also be that a product has simply over performed and is due a losing spell to correct it. Of course it is also true that it actually does make a profit and is worth following – but doing so after just a few months is very risky. We just don’t know how much is luck and how much is skill.
I always note with real concern when sweeping statements are made about a product based upon just a few month’s results. This is no real period of time to make any concrete decisions and certainly not worth risking your money upon.
That is why here at SBC we only make decisions based upon the long-term performance of any given product. We need to view a service’s achievements over at least a year’s performance or a few thousand bets. Enough results that can help assure us that their edge is based on skill – not luck!
In our Tipster Report we always list performance for the past 6, 12 and all-time results of over 35 services. We update these figures every month so you can see exactly who or what has proven to have real skill (and not just luck) over the long-haul.
Check out our latest report (released last Friday) as a full SBC member.