Finally back with Premier League action after the inescapably dull International friendlies in midweek, where for once I find myself agreeing with Sir Alex that they should be scrapped all together. If I was a bookie I would love these games as they are so hard to call and uncompetitive yet high profile – perfect for helping build that bookmaker pension fund.
Thankfully though, there seems to be a whole host of good value bets on offer this weekend, starting down at Upton Park where I think the 1.92 about 3 or more goals looks to worth an interest. West Ham’s home games for the past 2 seasons have gone overs roughly 62% of the time, whilst United away have seen overs in 73% this season (47% last). I am far from convinced about the Hammers defence and I fear they will struggle to cope with the attacking thrust down the flanks with Antonio Valencia back fit to join Nani out wide. Odds of 1.92 suggest the chance of overs is 52%, whereas I make it closer to 60%.
Wigan have a reputation for 2 things – eating pies and low scoring games but yet they are 11th in the table for goals scored and conceded this season and in their home games against the top 4 have let in 14 and scored only 2 (no idea where they stand in the pie consumption league table!). They face Spurs who themselves have seen over 2.5 goals in 60% of games away this year and I make the chances of over 2.5 goals around 55%, whereas the bookies have priced this up at 2.10 – a percentage chance of just 47.6%.
There is evidence to suggest that Stuart Holden was the most effective midfielder in the Premier League this season and Bolton are certainly going to miss him after his horror injury against Man Utd last time out. I have fancied the trotters all season long in a number of bets but I think they will have their work cut out without Holden away at Birmingham who I am backing with an 0 Asian Handicap at 1.83. Bolton have actually only won 2 away games all season, whereas Birmingham have lost only 4 in total at home. I make the home win % chance considerably higher than the away win % chance, so with a draw returning our money and decent odds, some value here.
The bookies have cottoned on to the fact that Blackpool’s games will always feature lots of goals under Holloway and as such there is next to no value in the over markets these days. Games involving the Tangerines have seen 105 goals this season, compared to just the 66 involving Fulham, who they travel to face this weekend. We should see a very contrasting game here with Fulham’s rigid 4-4-2 up against Blackpools 4-3-3 deriative and I fancy the away team with a +1 Asian Handicap at 2.04. Fulham have won just 3 out of 11 games at home by more than 1 goal, whereas Blackpool despite their gung-ho approach have lost just 3 out of 13 by more than 1 goal against non top 5 sides.
Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Man Utd 1.92 Ladbrokes
1 pt Birmingham +0 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Wigan V Spurs. 2.10 Paddy Power/Stan James
1 pt Blackpool +1 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 2.04 Canbet/SBObet/12bet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Wolves. 1.96 Pinnacle/12bet
*All odds correct at time of release on blog yesterday.